NorthHillsWx

Eerily similar to forecast tracks and intensity for Charley at about this range. At this time yesterday, I did not expect a TD by morning, some were questioning why this was a cherry. Well, this is what happens when a wave already has a defined surface circulation and shear decreases just a little. I am not sure about intensity yet. I think a moderate hurricane (cat 1-2) is likely for SW Florida. There are a lot of negative factors for intensity: dry west flow/shear, land interaction, length of time over water after Cuba. However the extreme SE GOM and NW Caribbean look extremely conducive for strengthening especially with a developing upper level anticyclone as this passes Jamaica. Track guidance certainly seems to be nearing a much more condensed consensus for LF on the SW Florida peninsula. Definitely Tampa’s first significant threat since Charley

I hope Atlantic Canada is treating this appropriately. This is going to be one of their biggest tropical impacts.

Agree. It’s becoming clear the environment behind the trough will be quite hostile in the northern GOM. Anything “left behind” would likely be weakening, possibly significantly, on approach. Something to watch once we get a defined system

Ummm I don’t believe that. We maxed out at 93.6. There is not way RDU was almost 5 degrees hotter than here! Just picked up 0.06” from a quick but heavy shower. This was our first rain in 10 days.

I’d say GFS is on an island at this point. From what I’m seeing: 1) Western track would be slower moving and likely a weaker system at landfall 2) eastern track crosses big part of Cuba and doesn’t have much time to strengthen before hitting Florida, but is a strengthening system on approach and then opens the door for east coast action 3) something between these 2 would probably yield the strongest landfall impact further up the Florida peninsula and would then be a potential serious inland flooding threat with trough interaction and overrunning. Fun times ahead tracking. These are all very presumptuous based on model runs without an actual system but hey, these 3 scenarios look plausible depending on which one the system takes

Euro puts the entire east coast on watch… interesting

Fiona is a beautiful storm this afternoon. This is going to be a big event for Atlantic Canada

The convection is incredibly sheared as expected but the spin of the wave is obvious. The strong ones always seem to have the spin even when they are weak, as 98L is. Once shear subsides this should take off

Yea in recent images Fiona looks much more symmetric and the eye has warmed and cleared out again. Beautiful storm

Would be a fun time on the board if this misses the trough connection and sits in the middle of the gulf for 3 extra days rotting from a 4 to a 1 or 2 before landfall

Looking long term, we may only have one or two rain chances through the end of the month. Barring any possible tropical activity, what you have now may be very close to what you end with for the month in the rain department. What a weird September

If you want a strong landfall you want this to get pulled up ahead of the trough and moving briskly in a NE direction into landfall so it’s going with the shear vector. You also don’t want a system going into the big bend area of Florida where there is extensive shelf water. A Charley like track would yield your strongest LF, in the situation as modeled. If this gets left behind the trough, it will be encircled in dry stable air, moving slower over shelf waters, and subject to NW shear. That’s why the GFS is showing rapid weakening. It is FAR too early to discuss these specifics. The storm isn’t even formed yet and the trough interaction is long range. My gut says whatever forms will end up further east, maybe Euro type track, as that has been the trend this year for models to go too far west then correct east, especially with unusually low heights on the east coast. Let’s monitor cyclone formation before nitpicking intensity at long range. Happy tracking.

Fiona looking a bit ragged at the moment. Believe our strengthening trend has ended

I think most on the forum thought 98L was destined to be Gaston… even after Gaston had been named

Hot and dry.

Yep. This is what it was missing this morning. I think they jumped the gun but it’s clear it was on the way so it doesn’t really matter

Yea, that’s probably stronger than 35 kts

Gaston might make a run at hurricane status just based on its rapidly improving presentation. Wow, this season has flipped the switch

Don’t discount the charley track on this one though this system might be much larger in size. The upper level environment and trough features in the SE US that affected charley are very similar to what is modeled on the Euro for this one. Too much time to get those specifics but that’s a plausible track and one the models have been hinting at. UK keeping this too low imo. Maybe a few weeks ago but there’s too much troughiness on the EC for this system to stay so suppressed and not get tugged north especially a large cyclone as depicted

Another eastern gulf monster

Needless to say, this one might be a season headliner. The model support is clearly there and it blows up in a climo-favored region. Watch out.

From a lemon to a cherry at warp speed

SFMR winds are known to overestimate intensity in shallow water and those highest values were noted in some of the reefs approaching grand Turk. There have been multiple flights into the storm since it was designated a major and just now did they find FL winds to 100kts. I doubt surface winds are 100kts if they cannot find FL winds to that magnitude. Don’t know of another major where we had recon and it was kept a major without FL winds over 100kts. Just my $0.02

New TD in the middle of the Atlantic

Also- per recon I have yet to see anything that confirms this as a major hurricane either yesterday or today. They may have jumped the gun a bit on that classification using satellite estimates.