NorthHillsWx

30.7 here this morning. First sub-freezing reading since the 5th. Only made it to 49.8 yesterday for a high

06z GFS is like a used car salesman on TV. You get suppression! You get a Great Lakes cutter! Everyone gets pain and misery in the forum!

Happy hour run delivers!!!

I will say this: if parts of the forum don’t score with this look and pattern from next Thursday-January 1 it will be a tough pill to swallow. So much ensemble support and favorable teleconnections. I think the biggest issue we may see play out would be suppression due to the strong HP and cold airmass centered over the east. The center of the cold dome has steadily progressed east and almost to the point of being too close to us. You need to smell the rain most times to get snowstorms in this area so our normal issues may be reversed in this pattern where the cold push may also push and flatten the southern stream. Ensembles still show moisture meeting cold but have backed off a bit from yesterday on the precip over much of the south. Honestly that’s more concerning than the cold air availability, shockingly enough. My concern though still cannot undermine that this is about as good a look for winter weather threats as you can draw up for our region at this range and it is centered around the holidays. Ops will struggle but ensembles are pretty locked in with the cold which for us is always 3/4 of the battle. Let’s ride

6z GFS suppressed and strung out with everything after Thursdays system

Lol 18z was pure pain east of 85. Way too early but something to track around the holidays gets me excited

Picked up 0.31” yesterday which brings our monthly total to 0.55”

I predict Bastadi’s mega cold snap to be a 2-3 day stretch of below normal temps, proceeded and followed by near normal to above normal. The Pacific is relentless (la Niña) and it looks like the blocking from -NAO trends to be more neutral by mid month. This looks like a transient pattern shaping up to me, not a “pattern shift” that would lead to extended cold and snow chances in the south. GEFS and EPS are starting to meet in the middle

We might not be done yet… 99L looks better defined this morning

31.2 for the low this morning. Looking ahead it might be our last sub freezing reading for awhile

The 12z GFS missed the memo

Smells like La Niña to me

Is anyone surprised after the last 4 winters

26.2 here this morning. Coldest reading of the season so far

12z GFS looks amazing but what a weird storm track

0.74” in the bucket today. Brings us to 4.92” for the monthly total.

Approaching an inch of rain for the day. Very efficient rain clouds this morning Ended up with 1.04” which brings the MTD total to 4.18”

We picked up 1.22” of rain yesterday

Not quite as cold as was forecast. Low of 27.1 which is now the second coldest low of the season and third time in the 20’s this year. Seems to have been awhile since we saw multiple mornings in the 20’s before thanksgiving here.

26.5 here this morning. Coldest morning of the fall and first time below freezing imby this season

That’s the most heavy story I’ve ever heard from a weather event

Picked up 0.29” yesterday which brings the mtd total to 1.92”

32.4 here this morning. Coldest morning of the fall imby

1.11” storm total from Nicole. High of 83

Really a pretty impressive look on satellite atm. Don’t see any real change to environment between now and landfall, still will be limited by dry air. Don’t think anything inhibits gradual strengthening though. 70-80kts would be my guess with an 85 max and 65 minimum. Significant event for time of year and surge will be maximized by fetch, wind direction piling water up for days, and moon.