NorthHillsWx

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period

This is looking like it continues well into September. We’ll see where we end up

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

This is incredible. I hope everyone is enjoying this stretch of weather this is a historically cool period in the middle of summer. We may never get an extended BN stretch like this again for this long as so very few have ever happened. RDU hit 90 1 time in August and many areas in our sub forum never touched it and it is continuing into September. This realistically is likely the coolest extended summer period in many of our lifetimes. Not only the peak departures from normal but the duration of BN is what is making this period stand out

First 50’s of the season! Well it’s not even close to fall and we have 50’s anyway! 58.6 this morning and honestly could’ve used a light jacket taking the kids to school

64 for the low this morning! Currently 69 and feels incredible out

It got back up to around 89 after I posted this but 89.1 was the max! We did not break 90 and we look locked in to stay below it the entire month, WOW! Currently 86 with relatively low humidity again, dewpoint 62

IDK if the ‘danger’ has passed but we made it up to 89.1 (highest this month) and have since fallen to around 86

The no 90s in August streak is in jeopardy! Already to 87.4 which is above the forecast high and surging up. 88.7 is the highest I’ve recorded this month so today very likely surpasses that at this rate

GFS and Euro kind of hinting at some home brew next week

85.8 yesterday. Today is probably the only shot to hit 90 here this month and forecasts are for us to top out about 3 degrees shy. When the hot airmass is shy of 90 in August you are in a fantastic pattern. Didn’t realize it had rained a little this weekend but got 0.04” which brings the month to 9.18”

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

High of 80.6 and very low humidity. What sort of sacrifice did y’all make to the weather gods? This is becoming a historic august

I’m just saying- it hasn’t hit 90 yet this August in Raleigh NC and we’re looking at 50s this week. We’re getting into record territory for coldest August in history. If anything, this burns clock during the peak of the season

With the anomalous trough and major fronts already impacting the east coast I would say the odds of an east coast impact from something other than home brew are likely decreasing. We’re in an October pattern in August

Made to to 86.4 today which was one of the warmest days this month! Also picked up 0.08” from a stray shower that ends the short rainless stretch and brings the monthly total to 9.14”

This August has been incredible. Though there was a high humidity stretch with all the rain, we still haven’t broken 90, RDU cracked it once (barely) and it now looks LIKELY we will make it through the month of August with zero 90-degree days. I honestly don’t know if that has ever happened in my lifetime. Sure RDU won’t report a zero 90 August but this has to be one of the coolest August’s in RDU history

We still have not hit 90 yet this month IMBY. 88.7 yesterday and 88.2 today. Absolutely incredible

Haven’t hit 90 IMBY in August yet this is pretty wild

This is the one that has my attention. Early indications are mixed about ridging over the Atlantic in time but it is starting at a lower latitude than Erin and very likely will impact the islands more directly than Erin

I’d say direct impacts are still unlikely but if EURO is correct it wouldn’t surprise me to see tropical storm advisories hoisted and given the expected size and wind field of the storm wave run up and over wash are almost a guaranteed issue at this point. I was there last week with the full moon and nor Easter and there wasn’t any beach at all

Erin is trending uncomfortably close to the OBX

Parts of Raleigh had significant flooding AGAIN last night. We were on northern edge but some areas saw up to 3” of rain. Our 0.67” brings the monthly total to 9.06”

I’d thought we missed the rain today but I was wrong. It’s pouring. Made it up to 86.7 but with dewpoints in the upper 70’s it felt like it was almost 100

High of 82.9 low of 71.6 humidity brought heat index into mid 90’s though. 0.53” of additional rain brings the MTD total to 8.39”