mattie g
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Everything posted by mattie g
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In theory, it should learn that if the Euro was overdoing the burying of energy in the Southwest then the next panels shouldn't leave that energy behind. It'll be super interesting to see what ultimately plays out given how steady the Euro AI has been.
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Oh...no doubt! But the midweek window has a TON of upside and I kinda want in on that. lol
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Aren't AI models more prone to hallucination if they don't have good datasets to learn from/refer to?
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If you average like 4x the amount of snow and it falls throughout the season and your infrastructure is meant to handle it, then it shouldn't be surprising in the least! I distinctly recall that in one of bigger winters recently (maybe 2013-2014?) that folks around here just eventually got on with things once we kept getting snow and it stuck around for a while. A few inches here or there just didn't have the impact it would have had if it had been one of the only events we got that year.
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Just bringing this over here so I have my bases covered:
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I'm liking the idea of 3-6" of cold smoke, but I'm convinced that if we max on Sunday then the midweek thing is toast due to wave spacing or energy being left behind or vorts squashing or someshit that I know nothing about.
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It’s been steady with the Sunday event the last couple days and I’m of the opinion that what happens with the second wave will be a direct result of what happens with the first. Makes sense if the CMC hits us next week given what it’s got for Sunday.
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CMC has been north for the last few runs. This doesn’t look much different.
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11/21: T - grauplets 11/22: T - SnowTV for an hour or so, followed by drizzle 12/1: T - on-and-off small snow showers for about an hour 12/24: T - some light sleet in the morning left a coating 1/3: 0.75” - squall/thundersnow 1/5-1/6: 9.0" - bumped a little based on local spotter reports 1/11: 1.0" - pretty little weekend thing 1/14: T - light snow shower late in the evening Seasonal Total: 10.75"
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Seems to me that, if the Sunday thing turns out, then that affects the ability of the next wave to turn the corner. Either way, we have quite a few shots coming up, which is pretty much all we can ask for!
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Like others, had a pretty nice flizzard in Burke at about 9:45. Not much of a coating, but definitely enough to whiten the cartops.
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This is awesome. I love being in the bullseye nine days out!
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We got into the upper 40s for a little bit, but the snowpack didn't take much of a hit. Now with the wind and temps in the mid 20s, it feels incredibly wintry again.
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Yeah. Besides the fully exposed south-facing lawns, everything in my neighborhood is still covered, including lots of rooftops. Still got a few inches of snow all over my yard and plenty on the roof.
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Maybe, but there are better and more humble ways to beat your chest and claim victory. Me? I don't know shit, so if I get something right it's by pure luck. That said...if my late-January triple phaser call were to work out, I'd be crowing from the rooftops.
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Your humility is praiseworthy.
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Seems...overdone.
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Give me hourly HRRR updates or give me death!
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Took a few pictures during a morning walk along the Liberty Bell Trail. Still deep snowcover, including packed snow along the whole trail. Probably take a bit of a hit today, but should still be pretty significant by this evening.
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Noticed the same on this morning's pupwalk. Really pretty pinks with orange hues. Currently 23 in Burke. Didn't realize it's supposed to get into the mid- to upper-40s today until I just checked wunderground. I'm guessing we'd be well into the 70s if not for the snowpack.
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Aunt Balls Uncle
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I only just found out about 5.1. It’s the 5.6 that I’ve heard lots about…
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I didn’t, but I have heard that someone in Maryland only has 5.6”!
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Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in every. f’ing. post.
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Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern! We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another!
