mattie g
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Everything posted by mattie g
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The moms at the bus stop this afternoon were giving it the old "They're saying maybe we get 4" maybe we get 24! They're leaving themselves a loooooot of wiggle room...really hedging their bets!" Things is that they all know me and know that I'm a weather nerd and they often ask me for updates, but they just can't help themselves when they get into their gaggles. <ends seemingly, but not really, misogynistic rant> Fuck's sake...
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I have a flight to a conference in Vegas on the morning of February 23. Doesn't really apply to this discussion...just thought I'd mention it.
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I think so. Gets it done (or would get it done), but just a bit differently than at 12z.
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Looks like the upper energy gets out in front a little bit on the ICON, so it doesn't wrap up as much.
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At 108, it's pressing a bit more in the upper Midwest.
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Not seeing any major differences on Der IKON at 96.
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There are a couple long-timers I've held off on ignoring for quite a while, but I'm getting an itchy trigger finger...
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Looks awesome. We'll be out there next Thursday through Sunday for the annual multi-family long weekend. Looking forward to some great conditions!
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Unless there’s a time between panels where things warm up a bit up top, we’re fine at all levels on the GFS.
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All that energy over the Plains on the CMC is wild. It’s going to lay down another crushing on someone coming up…
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Give me a sec to fire up the Erol’s internet and see if I can connect that way…
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Cold rain for many.
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I’m still a few pages back, so commenting on Euro AI, but that last storm was really flirting with flipping issues. Not that it matters at over 300 hours out, but just sayin’…
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Totally makes sense. When we hit, we can hit big, but we also fail big and often. I find it interesting and awesome that the three hits on this run are an overrunning/SWFE event, what kind of looks to be a Miller B, and a storm riding up the coast. Three ways to win, three ways to fail.
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This is an absolutely ludicrous run. Basically drops 30+” areawide for the 10-day period starting on the 24th.
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Just going on the guidance we’re seeing right now, I don’t see why NW of the cities should be even colder/smokier than those of us closer in. This is really looking likelier to be a super cold event everywhere from start to finish.
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11/30: Mix of sleet and light rain for a couple hours before switching to light cold rain. 12/2: Mix early in the morning before flipping to hard, cold rain. 12/5: 2.25”. 2” in the man event and 0.25” later that evening/overnight. 12/13: 1.25” 1/17-18: T - An hour or so of sleet/flurries on the 17th and very light snow on the 18th Running Total: 3.5”
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but the suppressed look on the GFS is less to do with anomalous strength of that high (it doesn’t seem that terribly strong) and more to do with the energy not ejecting from around the Baja. Definitely take your point regarding how the AI models may not “want” to reflect the more extreme potential in the atmosphere, though.
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I’m already invested. Thing is…while I’ll be disappointed if it doesn’t pan out, I won’t lose my shit and will just look to the next window with an eye to knowing it’ll soon enough be spring!
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I hate that I can’t spot an AI image simply by looking at fingers anymore. Bring me a fat f’ing dumping with a return NW flow a few days before/during our multi-family trip to Wisp later that week and I’ll be a VERY happy man…
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There is. It’s cold as F and there’s no flow to scour out that cold, so precip is falling through some deep cold. Those events are where we can rack up some serious totals over multiple hours without any worries over flipping.
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AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week. It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.
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Some stuff whitened a little here in Burke. Otherwise…
