mattie g

1) I think I understand why he started Arriola, but I don't agree with it - I wanted Weah from the start. I think think he wanted to have Arriola harass, pressure, and run at Costa Rica to wear them down, then sub Weah for him so he could run at a tired defense. I get the thinking behind it, but again I don't agree with it. I think how we played proved this out because Arriola isn't the best player to have out there to build from the back like we did. 2) Only if we know what the outcome would have been had Arriola started, but that higher power is the only thing to know the result in that alternate universe, so I suppose that's a serious philosophical dilemma.

Most people don't realize this, but regular old Guinness is only 4.2% ABV.

The panel before that is a smashing.

"Weather doesn't give a sh*t about your feelings"

I'm a massive soccer fan, so I'm not sure I'd lol at us going down 1-0 in the first minute, but we dominated that game and fully deserved the three points.

We went last year to the drive through they had set up, but I took the girls there a couple weekends ago for the first time in their normal setup. It was a f'ing madhouse.

It used to be so much better...as did every one of their IPAs. As soon as they moved their production facility to Alexandria (and massively scaled up), the quality of their IPAs went downhill almost immediately. It used to be that people (including me) would wait for hours for their IPA releases. While that was annoying, I'd much rather now rather that than wander into their taproom and pick up a 4-pack of one of 32 different beers sitting in their fridge.

January February March April May June July August September October November Christmas I make you correct.

I prefer hardneck. I generally stick with Music since, aside from a couple years ago, I use cloves from the previous year for planting. Are you still harvesting? I've still got probably 25-30 lbs on the vine on my eight plants. I generally don't weigh my tomatoes before processing, but I've filled 10 gallon bags with cored and seeded tomatoes at an average of 5.5 lbs per bag. That makes a nice amount of sauce over the winter, and the seven pints of smoked salsa I made a couple weeks ago with those things is worth every bit of the work that goes into going from seed to fruit!

What's the time period for which this snowfall analysis is taking place?

I'm honestly through with seasonal outlooks at this point. I'm not at all disparaging those who are trying to forecast, and I'll read with some interest, but I will say that I have absolutely zero confidence in seasonal modeling.

Sapwood beers are awesome. Definitely take the opportunity to have a few ours there.

Harvested just shy of 4 lbs of mostly San Marzano Gigante and Jersey Devil tomatoes today. Will probably harvest about the same amount this weekend, most of which will be Pomodoro Squisito. I’ve been impressed with the PS. They mature relatively slowly, but they remain viable for a long time on the vine and after harvest. The SMG and JD are definitely better sauce tomatoes, but the PS are great for a lot of uses.

Latest SPC update shrunk the slight area a bit (mostly the west edge), but much of the area is still in it.

The smart people at SPC have us in slight risk (as of the overnight outlook), so I'm guessing they think it's looking fairly good.

That's because we didn't actually read WxUSAF's post and just copied the first entry. Being honest!

DCA: 11/18 IAD: 10/26 BWI: 11/18 RIC: 11/10 Tiebreaker: 1.89" (Edited to add the tiebreaker)

Drinking a BCBS (2018) Vanilla right now. Celebrating what feels like the real start of stout season.

Sapwood is fantastic, and I’m pretty sure they hold a place in the hearts of many a local homebrewer.

Some warm days, some cool days. Heaven forbid...

2.15" at the nearest CoCoRaHs, which jives with your report since we're often in close alignment, especially in these types of setups. Sun is out now and the temps are climbing ever so slightly, but it's definitely awesome outside.

And now the GFS says we warm up for about a week starting Tuesday or so and then a significant cool shot comes in during the first week of October. Can we agree not to take progs beyond maybe Day 7 verbatim?

@frd My comment about "how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be" isn't related to long-term trends, but rather to actual conditions in the here and now. Like I said, I'm certainly not arguing against the idea that we're gaining temps on the margins. I just think people are biased in how they perceive forecast near(ish)-term progs based on recent conditions. One thing on temp increases that would be great to distangle is the effect that UHI (and things like re-paving/re-siting like at BWI) has had on the obs at the reporting stations. Again...I'm no climate change denier (far from it!), but I'd be curious if there were a way to see how much those large-scale increased temp averages at reporting stations are affected by UHI creep, etc. and how that might bias actual overall temp increases.

Had some moderate rain for about 5-10 minutes about an hour or so ago. Decent slug of moisture headed this way in about another hour.

Sure...it was warm last week, but I think that recency bias plays a big role in how people perceive future weather. I'm not arguing that we're not gaining temps on the margins on average, but I just don't think we can make grandiose statements about how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be based on what are essentially temps within a margin of error (for lack of a better term).