crossbowftw3

And the ensuing snow map, beginning to wonder if I simply end up too far west for anything really meaningful in the Catskills:

Finally starting to seem like models are converging to one common idea, devil will be in the details if my lower elevation in the Catskills will see more than 1-2”

First consensus forming?

Looks like at least the overnight model runs are in fact converging on a first consensus though, effectively now looking like you need to go far beyond 84 to see snow

Most trees still are only beginning to bud out around here.

He’s back to smoking the good stuff. A much more plausible forecast for this juncture would be broad-brush 1-3/3-6 with up to 12 in the elevations

Remember the catch-22s that make snow totals being that high highly unlikely, snow is definitely growing probable for your elevation. EC is otherwise all on its own when it comes to this.

Midday GFS with a far more plausible snow distribution for this time of year:

Midday GFS makes much more sense with the snow distribution to elevation ratio, maybe a first look at how this might actually unfold?:

Midday GFS beginning to really show a far more plausible scenario when it comes to snow distribution for a storm this late:

way more realistic snow:elevation distribution for what you'd expect for a late seaon storm.

Matter of fact, midday GFS is already showing signs of slowly coming to a realistic scenario

GFS has lost its mind apparently. Definitely not going to verify at even 50% of this. A much more realistic scenario should become apparent with each successive run; which probably confines most of any snow to >1500 foot elevations

Quick examination of models tells me that any snow would need to be falling at high rates to offset the 33-34 degree temperatures that may be present this weekend, with the only factor working in this thing’s favor is that it could fall at night. Conclusion: we should see things even out as the week progresses; lower elevations maybe see up to 4” of slop while higher elevations see more.

Quick peek at models implies any snow this weekend upcoming would be falling into 33-34 degree air, albeit at night where it’d be most favorable—rates would need to be incredibly heavy to offset. I doubt GFS (most aggressive?) plays out verbatim and eventually we should see it even out for us (relatively) lower elevation folks to where we would probably see ~1-3” of absolute slop whereas someone at those elevations could cash in. Regardless, this upcoming pattern looks rough. We never seem to get true spring anymore before summer just blows right in.

not overly likely with snow falling into 33-34 degree air, but then again I did say that before the snow event last April. Got 2.5" of slop here and wouldn't be shocked if something similar did happen.

It legitimately feels like deep winter out there this morning. 26 with a dusting of snow OTG and currently light snow showers.

mood flakes. 34/33 nothing sticking (shocking I know)

this looks so wrong for so many reasons.

Of course, comparatively speaking I only have 750-800’ whereas Liberty is 1500’. 1-3” for the far NW people still works with him probably winning the jackpot at 4” or so

6z came back west also I doubt you get 6” of snow when considering this is happening in the morning. Gotta account for sun angle killing ratios. Even if you get moderate snow for 4 hours or so. You need some impressive rates for this time of year to make it stick

Either way it would seem WWAs would be needed for the rest of BGM/BUF WFOs probably by midday tomorrow

Preferably even closer to Syracuse. They’ll get smacked up there. Pretty high ratios for them too at up to 14:1 (after the initial transition being closer to 4-5:1) so snow growth should be very favorable.

If the low was further SE that’s how we get into the 2-5” range for snows here

Still possible but CNY is all but locked in for a more significant snow. If we get lucky we can see 2-5” here