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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    You got me a little more enthused when you said this storm wouldn't go quietly...but yeah the timing sucks. It has looked pretty meh for us from the get go.
  2. Kmlwx
    I was thinking the same thing after I read his message and then looked at the map lol
  3. Kmlwx
    Meh
  4. Kmlwx
    Bullish!
  5. Kmlwx
    12z FV3 actually looks pretty good on sim reflectivity.
  6. Kmlwx
    LWX mentions lack of instability...which we already knew would be the issue here. Few good analogs still showing up in CIPS at the 72hr frame. Better timing/better instability with this probably would have allowed for a pretty sizeable severe risk. I don't really see anything to suggest major changes from what we are expecting though. Gusty line of showers/storms Thur night seems like a good bet, though.
  7. Kmlwx
    First time driving through PA?
  8. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance is a lot of nothing and still a few eye opening ones lower on the list. Apr 16, 2011 is still showing up, February 2016 is showing up and then a few less widespread events as well.
  9. Kmlwx
    The 18z GFS suggests more like a 3z arrival of a "line" of storms on Thur night. That 3 hour difference could help a bit.
  10. Kmlwx
    My PWS registered a 3-4 degree drop in temperature and a big time drop in sunlight/solar radiation. BUT - there were quite a few clouds streaming in too so the drop was also caused by that.
  11. Kmlwx
    18z NAM at range...(FWIW) - brings a line through around 6z Friday morning. That timing absolutely sucks. April 2011 was showing up on some of the analogs. Probably a very minor version of that...minus the like 12+ hours of Tornado Watches Had instability been better - or the timing maybe this could have been a bigger deal. We'll see if things shift/adjust at all as we close.
  12. Kmlwx
    The dot on the sun? That's a sunspot currently bubbling up on the sun! I think at last check the magnetic field of it was pretty stable, though - so not a big risk for flares.
  13. Kmlwx
    From Colesville, MD. ETA: This was achieved using an 8" dobsonian telescope (not motorized) w/42mm eyepiece and an S24 Ultra manually held up to the eyepiece in 200 megapixel mode. 9.25" solar filter used on the tube itself. Crude astrophotography is definitely possible using less than stellar setups. Just have to have the patience. Non-motorized/computer controller telescopes like this are sub-$600 and some are much lower even. Downside is the 30-50 pounds of weight they can carry with them.
  14. Kmlwx
    Good skies in Colesville for the moment...
  15. Kmlwx
    It's the NAM at range...and the 12k at that...but it has a formidable line of activity well to our west Thur evening. But the timing appears to suck. We'd need that to either speed up a bit or slow down by a day (to bump into Friday) to maximize potential. As it stands, still think this ends up as a typical "too early" even that *could* have been bigger.
  16. Kmlwx
    I see there's some tomatoes eclipsing your breakfast there. Annular eclipse of the breakfast.
  17. Kmlwx
    CIPS is more muted now but still a signal. The few beefy events it had have dropped down lower in the list. I think between timing issues and still early season this will be marginal at best for us. Still... Dynamic systems haven't shut off so if atmospheric memory exists it could still hint at an active late April/May.
  18. Kmlwx
    Yeah but at least it would be a trip to Italy and a cruise. Plus... The boat can adjust course to hopefully better setup the day of.
  19. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance was honking pretty hard for the last panel (hr 132). One or two beefy events in there (including Apr 2011)
  20. Kmlwx
    I just canceled my Keene, NH hotel reservation (had that as a "launching point" for a possible Maine trek). Based on distance and people commenting about poor road options in rural Maine...just not worth it. I still have a Binghamton, NY hotel reservation that's cancelable until midnight tonight...but that precip and cloudiness is precarious. I'm getting close to just risking it and using my solar filter/telescope to observe this one from MBY in Maryland and then saving up/booking an Italy-->Greece eclipse cruise for 2027. Also...there's some homeland security warnings about eclipse gatherings being soft targets for potential malicious actors...don't doubt it with local law enforcement dealing with crowds swelling to many times normal amounts. It sucks having this cut through places not too far from here but it being logistically very tough. I missed totality in 2017 by about 8 miles...I vowed to not let this happen this time but it might be less stressful (but much pricier) to plan internationally for 2026/27). I wish we all had the money and means to go chase every eclipse...
  21. Kmlwx
    https://www.amazon.com/DIBBATU-Disposable-Emergency-Portable-Suitable/dp/B0B9XN7KXW/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=3BNP45XCJJR3S&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.h9JwSZ9bAyWD0hMLpqi9658XqwuArEGMhHzjnezpJBRVf1PaX5V9CnZwmxgVGXJTw2N--I5dhW54xpeWkw3IZeiG656Udy_eE0inyMlY-ZSx8CJgg7uqUbYtWCIpglhM5lcYkGRKukgJWyz5CM9NtUwnyQtavi94-5t7HnBCQzjYsgOLr-9t8w3ERH5lsBckU1LF__p4xjuX2Pwi6buhj5RL9TrbrurMJhux5nnBkYDcuiAfIU-uN5SDJjh5pCogGwtzfhgz2lYOwtXqPi6oyt5-PRitNS-mPrp-jsI5tWk.A0AFhTsQQRFiGpe_7b8uiNOfZqU38XZyM7hnDc2sgB4&dib_tag=se&keywords=urine+bags&qid=1712261474&sprefix=urine+bags%2Caps%2C105&sr=8-1-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&psc=1
  22. Kmlwx
    It still matters for observing the eclipse (even without totality). But yes it won't get dark like totality will.
  23. Kmlwx
    This. But I think I see where he's coming from - at least there's a family connection. But yeah...if you are at 99.9 even - might as well just stay home and watch it with 80-90 percent totality through a solar filtered telescope or glasses. But he's seeing family so I see the approach.
  24. Kmlwx
    I bought little sleeves that you can pee into and it absorbs. Now if there's a #2 situation....outta luck. I bet most public bathrooms in the totality path are going to be overcrowded and disgusting.
  25. Kmlwx
    Stream gauge near here level out right around 6ft on the dot. But expect it could begin rising again as the precip from the SW arrives. Ground is WATERLOGGED here - lots of standing water in areas that normally absorb relatively fine.
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