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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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I remember being in 6th period newspaper and itching to go home (I lived right through the woods). Literally sprinted (also had to take a leak because the bathrooms at school sucked LOL) and made it home with just enough time to track the line rolling in. I remember seeing tons of tree debris flying through the air. As bad as 6/4/2008 was - I think it was outclassed by the 2012 derecho pretty easily.
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CIPS has a bit of a signature for severe around 120hr. One thing I've seen relatively consistently this spring so far is analogs from 1998 being peppered into the mix. That was a really robust spring.
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Looking ahead: CIPS is suggesting some severe threat starting up by the 156hr timeframe and extending into the longer range as well. There's an especially strong signal for 168hr long range panel from the 0z images.
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Will be dependent on timing of course but also how the Bz gets tilted. Always a chance it could be a dud but it certainly looks impressive from the speed alone.
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Seems like Glen Echo likely got some hail.
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Everything looks sub-severe so far - probably will intensify a bit as it nears/gets east of I-95.
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Can see the precip that will come through late tonight blossoming in WV.
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Rotation in the line near White Oak/Hillandale. Increase in lightning as well. TOR warned now.
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Moving over here since no longer severe seemingly. Pouring here in Colesville again. Local stream gauge after the last round was already pushing 6ft. Guessing it dropped a bit during the lull but it should shoot back up with this line of heavy rain.
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A day like today with a similar vort pass but with perhaps better mid-level lapse rates and a bit more instability would have probably yielded a substantial outbreak. As it stands it was already quite impressive with the number of warnings.
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I drove out of the neighborhood and along Randolph from Kemp Mill east to New Hampshire before turning south and then back into my neighborhood. Nothing much of note. The canvas sign from a church along Randolph was torn off and some tiny twigs around in spots but nothing to note otherwise.
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The "dryslot" seems to have some activity popping in it now.
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LSR indicates a funnel cloud was spotted north of Holy Cross Hospital. Anybody have a link to that? I haven't been able to find it.
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At some point with all the messy radar look - we probably will get overturned and most stuff will just be a heavy rain threat.
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The cell for me has pretty broad rotation - nothing indicating tornado as it went over me - but lots of rain for sure. Radar looks....active....to say the least. Don't think we are done yet.
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Pouring with no visibility of the structure right now unfortunately. But it looks nice on radar for sure. Somebody maybe east of me perhaps near like Fort Meade might have better luck.
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Now a TOR warning for me.
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Some rotation over me on radar.
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Messy radar
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Well seems our weenie handbook "SPC playing catch-up" checkbox could also be getting checked
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You know it's at least somewhat intriguing when @andyhb pops into the Mid-Atlantic forum. And as always, thanks for your insight/thoughts!
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WPC frontal analysis assesses that the front is north of many of us but as a stationary front.
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Sunshine? - Check Shear? - Present-ish CAPE? - Present-ish MLLR? - Nope. @Eskimo Joe - Thoughts?
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On the CoD model page - many models showed decent clearing/sunshine this morning at least when I looked at them yesterday.
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I'm mostly ready to "meh" this in MBY. Seems like one of those days when south of the area gets hammered, though.
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