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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Shocked that meso covers so far into Maryland. Includes Howard County entirely.
  2. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis has supercell composite parameter of 12 in a pocket over the area.
  3. Kmlwx
    The 14z HRRR has pretty much nothing of interest south of the M/D line this afternoon/evening. ETA: But the extended HRRR (12z) looks great for tomorrow.
  4. Kmlwx
    June is definitely out "big league" month it seems. Though really anytime April through July can go big with the right ingredients. Once we get into July though it seems things go more towards pulse severe as shear tends to be harder to come by. Hopefully June brings continued chances at tracking. Best part about severe season is that I tend not to give *too* much look at day 4 and beyond other than glancing at general setups and the day 4-8 outlook. None of this chasing snowstorms from 14 days out kind of things
  5. Kmlwx
    IIRC somebody once said that a lot of our "big severe" days have some morning showers/rain which can sometimes serve to beef up the dewpoint and/or lay down boundaries for storms to fire along. Not saying tomorrow OR Wednesday are "big severe" days - but could help us out a bit.
  6. Kmlwx
    Forcing looks to stay north. One thing that could work is getting good outflow from those storms to touch off storms for us. But the models are certainly not onboard with that right now (but it's far out for now). I'm more interested in Wednesday at this point. NAM nest is absolutely insistent on good parameters but nothing coming of them in the LWX CWA.
  7. Kmlwx
    SPC thinks PA is ground zero around here tomorrow. And other than the morning stuff, the NAM, NAM nest and HRRR (long range) are not enthused. I'm out for now.
  8. Kmlwx
    I'll cross my fingers and hope for persistence - good storms lately so hopefully our luck continues.
  9. Kmlwx
    Looks like NAM nest keeps our area pretty much in the clear despite parameters being nice. NEPA looks ominous, though.
  10. Kmlwx
  11. Kmlwx
    One more
  12. Kmlwx
  13. Kmlwx
  14. Kmlwx
    Radarscope has a TVS on the most intense part of the line
  15. Kmlwx
    Yeah it looks like the evening stuff is getting going. Let's see how it does with lowering instability/loss of daytime heating.
  16. Kmlwx
    Starting to think we'll have to wait for the stuff that the HRRR is insistent will come through around 1-2z
  17. Kmlwx
    Just fired up a spare smartphone running a hyperlapse video capture looking north (and a bit west) of Columbia. Hoping to catch any CU growth and subsequent storm formation.
  18. Kmlwx
    Latest HRRR (12z) run in progress has some pop up storms for the I-95 corridor around 19-20z and then a big line coming through later.
  19. Kmlwx
    LWX is very bullish it seems for Tuesday. SPC is less enthused. But that's not a concern...I just went back for nostalgia and was re-reading outlooks leading up to the June 2012 derecho and we weren't even in a risk from long leads.
  20. Kmlwx
    SLGT risk for tomorrow now - SPC indicates supercell development possible.
  21. Kmlwx
    Of note - the 12z CIPS analogs have a big signature for severe potential at the hour 132 mark
  22. Kmlwx
    STALKER I honestly wouldn't have recognized my building from a panoramic photo with that lighting. I would have killed to watch the storm from my building...work sucks
  23. Kmlwx
    I don't know what's gotten into me
  24. Kmlwx
    I have no opinion yet. But it's been there a bit off and on - on the guidance. Wouldn't expect anything like today at this range.
  25. Kmlwx
    Don't get me wrong - June and July can still be fierce...but the fail potential is a lot higher. We tend to do pulse severe (isolated) in later June and July. The time of year we are in right now is great for severe if we can get the stars to align. We still benefit I guess from shorter wavelengths and somewhat more potent low pressure systems. Absolutely NO scientific backing here - but after today I feel pretty good about some good chances at severe as we head towards summer. Now if only we can track some Mid-Atlantic tropical trouble in fall. Add a decent December snow and we'll have had it all
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