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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    @MN Transplant is also a frequent poster.
  2. Kmlwx
    The cells north of PIT are going to town already. Quick hail markers on them. Should be a fun day in most of PA
  3. Kmlwx
    Yeah - looks like we lull after these next few days. CIPS is much quieter going forward - not much signature for severe to be seen.
  4. Kmlwx
    Also worth nothing the HRRR continues to have essentially NOTHING south of the M/D line for today. (17z run). I'm completely out for today unless you're in mappyville - and even then probably out.
  5. Kmlwx
    12z HRRR run (long range) for tomorrow. Tasty. Meanwhile - the NAM nest seems to have two rounds tomorrow. Looks like it blows up some cells for I-95 and east and then brings a line or cells in from the west later on.
  6. Kmlwx
    GFS might be running too humid at spots. I saw a small blob up near FDK for tomorrow where the GFS was progging like 6K SBCAPE. I looked at the sounding and it has a 76 dewpoint in the area. Doubt it would be that high.
  7. Kmlwx
    I'm telling you - I think I'm getting more pessimistic than EJ. Seems to be working for our storm odds this year...
  8. Kmlwx
    Wow - that's essentially every county in PA except for two three
  9. Kmlwx
    Wonder if the usual spots (around Potomac etc) where winds sometimes get a little more backed due to local factors could enhance a tor threat. Either that or perhaps some factor that could back the winds a bit more isn't being seen yet. Nonetheless, I like the sounds of a day 2 ENH with decent discussion wording.
  10. Kmlwx
    You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC.
  11. Kmlwx
    Seems fairly standard - I guess the comment at the end is unusual - but they are saying they don't think we will achieve that given the unidirectional wind.
  12. Kmlwx
    I think at the very least storms should be more widespread than today. Intensity TBD...but it still looks like enough fuel and shear will be around. Nice stretch we've had for parts of the area. Wish I had been at my apartment for the Columbia TOR.
  13. Kmlwx
    Even Thursday is looking decent on recent sim reflectivity. But I think tomorrow might be the main show. Lots of ENH this year so far. This year has been fun so far...loved the Saturday storms in Columbia.
  14. Kmlwx
    So what happens when EJ is in and Kmlwx is out? The @WxWatcher007 scale is broken now.
  15. Kmlwx
    Oh snap. ETA: I'd feel pretty good about my storm odds today if I was in Lancaster/Millersville this PM.
  16. Kmlwx
    It is quite high for this area. Doesn't mean much without forcing, though.
  17. Kmlwx
    I still think most of us are out
  18. Kmlwx
    Worth noting the ARW and ARW2 are much more robust with storms (especially across northeastern parts of the CWA). I'm still on board for tomorrow.
  19. Kmlwx
    Shocked that meso covers so far into Maryland. Includes Howard County entirely.
  20. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis has supercell composite parameter of 12 in a pocket over the area.
  21. Kmlwx
    The 14z HRRR has pretty much nothing of interest south of the M/D line this afternoon/evening. ETA: But the extended HRRR (12z) looks great for tomorrow.
  22. Kmlwx
    June is definitely out "big league" month it seems. Though really anytime April through July can go big with the right ingredients. Once we get into July though it seems things go more towards pulse severe as shear tends to be harder to come by. Hopefully June brings continued chances at tracking. Best part about severe season is that I tend not to give *too* much look at day 4 and beyond other than glancing at general setups and the day 4-8 outlook. None of this chasing snowstorms from 14 days out kind of things
  23. Kmlwx
    IIRC somebody once said that a lot of our "big severe" days have some morning showers/rain which can sometimes serve to beef up the dewpoint and/or lay down boundaries for storms to fire along. Not saying tomorrow OR Wednesday are "big severe" days - but could help us out a bit.
  24. Kmlwx
    Forcing looks to stay north. One thing that could work is getting good outflow from those storms to touch off storms for us. But the models are certainly not onboard with that right now (but it's far out for now). I'm more interested in Wednesday at this point. NAM nest is absolutely insistent on good parameters but nothing coming of them in the LWX CWA.
  25. Kmlwx
    SPC thinks PA is ground zero around here tomorrow. And other than the morning stuff, the NAM, NAM nest and HRRR (long range) are not enthused. I'm out for now.
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