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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Surprised there's not a pity meso yet with all the pop up general showers and storms around.
  2. Kmlwx
    Should be a bit faster moving so that might be one thing that prevents massive flooding. Reflectivity on some of the model output looks good - but yeah seems like an isolated day for actual severe.
  3. Kmlwx
    Calm down you two.
  4. Kmlwx
    Wasn't speaking for location specifics - more the fact that each time I've looked at them this year they've shown like tiny little cells or nothing at all for most of our events.
  5. Kmlwx
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019071012&fh=6 one of 'em
  6. Kmlwx
    Just peaked at them over on the TropicalTidbits site. Only had time to give them a quick glance. Work is blech today.
  7. Kmlwx
    Some of the CAMs like the ARW/ARW2/NMM - which have looked pretty weak sauce for prior events this year - look QUITE robust for the region tomorrow.
  8. Kmlwx
    Marginally I guess for now. I don't think it'll be an outbreak. Probably just higher than 50/50 odds of any location getting a boomer.
  9. Kmlwx
    The long range HRRR from 12z is VERY good for our area for tomorrow.
  10. Kmlwx
    Slight risk posted for tomorrow.
  11. Kmlwx
    There was some talk of a potential ring of fire pattern in the long range. I haven't looked at it too much - have been busy.
  12. Kmlwx
    We'll have to hope for boundaries to touch off more activity.
  13. Kmlwx
    HRRR seems to have a comically bad handle on the present convection in PA
  14. Kmlwx
    Satellite indicated!
  15. Kmlwx
    Yeah that had been well modeled too from guidance earlier in the day.
  16. Kmlwx
    There hasn't been any associated increase on CIPS or anything yet.
  17. Kmlwx
    Does seem we could go into a NW flow threat in a bit. That could make for some nice opportunity if things setup properly and timing works out. Won't hold my breath for now.
  18. Kmlwx
    Things look good for some storms tomorrow PM. If the main line on the models was a bit faster we'd be in great shape. Seems most models have some cells out front and then a dying line around 02-04z
  19. Kmlwx
    Haven't looked yet - ring of fire?
  20. Kmlwx
    Hope for a wicked EML, good trigger, good timing and spectacular shear and you'll be very pleased.
  21. Kmlwx
    I don't see much severe risk upcoming.
  22. Kmlwx
    Any exciting weather really. As long as it's not just triple digit heat and sun
  23. Kmlwx
    Even a June 4, 2008 would be more than fine. I can think of a bunch of events that would be acceptable. 20080604 20100725 20120629 20130613 Ivan too of course.
  24. Kmlwx
    At this point I'm all for reshuffling the pattern. Anybody for NW flow/ring of fire pattern? I'm okay with 100 and humid if it produces CAPE of 6000 and a massive line of storms.
  25. Kmlwx
    this is lame...
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