ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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NAM will be north of the 06z run but that isn’t surprising considering how flat 06z was
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I’d be pretty surprised if there wasn’t a decent stripe of 10-14” but it won’t be for everyone.
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It’s prob from first flakes to last flakes it might be 12-15 hours but for stuff that actually is going to accumulate it’s prob like 9 hours.
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Yeah and if you’re getting huge omega in that band, I’m thinking someone it gonna go 15 or 18 to 1 on ratios for a chunk of it. So I think that needs to be kept in mind….a little early to obsess over soundings, but sometimes you’ll see people say “what a model bust” if they get a 17” fluff bomb but they ended up with like an inch of QPF just like guidance was saying. On the flip side, you’ll see it too if they go 7 to 1 ratios but the QPF was still accurate.
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There’s still like 3 days for figure QPF but I think someone in a band will do really well with this bumping up against the confluence. Where it’s cold over the interior, you’re gonna have to watch ratios too if we get a crosshair sig…someone could get a foot from like 0.80” of QPF if they’re going 15 to 1.
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Coastal areas might be more like 5-8”.
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May need to watch for a CF…esp during the first half of the event.
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GGEM still kind of clueless but not as much as 12z. At least it gets measurable snow to the pike this run.
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Man that GFS run gets a tiny bit of partial phase action late in the game which just nukes almost all of SNE
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Airmass has steadily improved as we get closer. Not used to seeing that the last two winters.
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Agreed. It’s friggin’ cold too. It’s like -10 to -12c at 850 and 26F at BDL when it starts snowing Tuesday morning at the end of the run…lol
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Yeah if we can get a little bit of partial phasing late in the game that a few of these solutions have shown, it will help tilt that best fronto band a bit more NE to SW instead of ENE to WSW. That would likely get a larger portion of SNE into the max snowfall zone.
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Yeah if metfan can squeeze an advisory snowfall out of this then that bodes extremely well for the SW CT crew.
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It’s a good sign that we’re getting oscillations now in the past few cycles…not a discernible trend. It def could still trend but usually when you start oscillating it means the trends are probably not going to be steep.
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Now out to the end of the run at 90h…it’s def south of 12z
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18z euro looks a tad south of 12z through 78h. Not totally shocking given the 12z eps.
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Yeah I’m about ready to toss anything well south. I could still see N of pike getting only a moderate event from a system further south but it’s becoming less likely. I still think the zone with the most wiggle room is prob your area down to N CT around Kevin. I think central and south-central CT is in decent shape too but a N tick could make it a sloppier event with maybe a longer wait for the snow there.
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Outliers are converging
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That’s a fat PV to the north. It’s not going to rip inland with that setup. There’s def a northern limit. The goal posts are prob like dendrite to south coast right now for the meat of the snow.
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I think eventually (esp interior) but the first 2-4 hours might be pasty.
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Thought eps would be more zonked. I’d feel really good from Ray to N CT right now. But both MHT region and S CT are still in line for at least plowable…we’ll see.
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Ukie still a meat grinder job. But it was def less of a meat grinder than 00z run. 00z was a clean whiff and 12z is a scraper.
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Yes it was the same system. It just had a couple vort pulses but it was all part of the same ULL
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That’s a big jump on the last frame…esp looking at the isobars in the gulf of maine
