ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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3k really close to hitting the Cape and adjacent SE MA hard with the intense CCB....no dice verbatim though. Just some light snow with like 1-2 inches.
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If that was like 100 miles north, this would probably be a quick-hitting 4-8/6-10 system...it's a pretty nice shortwave.
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NAM is def better than 12z...but keep in mindthe 12z NAM might have been the worst run of any of the 12z models...it didn't even get the Cape (talking 12km, not the 3km)
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18z RPM is going to come NW again...we'll see if this can at least be an advisory event for SE areas.
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I did this for ORH last year....I have not yet done it for BOS, but I probably will at some point.
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Bigger problem is the shortwave north of us....it just doesn't allow downstream ridging to feedback on this system.
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Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs
ORH_wxman replied to CapturedNature's topic in New England
We have a Great Horned owl that lives near us...seen it a few times per year the past 2 years. We can hear it pretty frequently too at night. -
Yeah we really need more moves than this and the GFS is trying to shoot east at the last second too like the RGEM did despite looking better early on. There's still some time especially for southeast areas but it's quickly running out. 00z tonight is basically the Alamo last stand.
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GFS is a bit NW through 18 hours
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No help from Reggie....actually looked better early on through about 36, but then it kicked east pretty hard and actually ended up worse than 06z.
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A scraper this run for you and the Cape...but better than the near total whiff at 06z on the 3km. I think you guys have a shot on this one.
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It definitely looks better through 36.
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Agreed Scott...I looked at H5 and expected a little better. But even with that H5 change, it was small....I feel like we need some bigger moves here.
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Maybe you'll get a legit snowstorm out of that....if that system follows the dominant trend of the past 2 weeks, it will press big time in the next 2-3 days or so before maybe trying to tickle back N a bit. But I suppose at some point that seasonal trend will break.
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06z Euro came NW a little bit. These are pretty small moves...though it does give an inch or two from ginxy over to Around PYM. Again, need another jump for a meaningful event.
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Euro didn't improve enough. It didn't get worse but we need a pretty good jump now on the 12z suite. The earlier 00z models made better moves.
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Oof....for those 60F to powderfreak calls. GGEM was even starting to look precarious for SNE too but both medium range models first out of the gate tonight trended that way
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GFS will be a little better too looking at it through 36. Not staying up for euro tonight, but SNE folks still need another bump after this too and CNE would need a larger one. There's still some time though.
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Rgem a little better than 18z too...all of these jumps so far at 00z aren't big but if they happened again then it would probably bring some pretty good snows into at least the southeastern half of SNE.
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That one stung. We had a big set of runs in a big NW trend about 36-48 hours before it hit (closer than we are now) and then it got pulled out from under us. I still think we got 2-3" or so in eastern areas (less back west) but it could have been like 6-10 or more. We did get a good system two days later on 3/4 though.
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And pretty crappy for snow too. At least quick glance at BOS. Maybe it was better in the interior. That was a putrid stretch for BOS snowfall. 8 straight winters with below normal snowfall. Thy oxen got tired with so few days of sleighing.
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Rpm was close to a lot more. That 2-4 band was from a developing CCB/deformation but the whole thing almost jumped east and redeveloped and just shut off the snow abruptly.
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Yeah the shitstreak is still killing us but we managed to bully it a little more this run with a better injection of energy into the main shortwave. We'd probably get some exponential improvement if we could lift that thing out of the way even just an couple hours earlier.
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It looks a little better to me though 36....not sure it's going to help a lot but at least it is not a trend worse.
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We can all channel our inner 2015-powderfreak.....the ARW smokes us
