ORH_wxman

Currently? Nat gas and oil are the big ones. Solar energy produces the majority electricity in the future scenarios. Edit: coal is still really big currently too. But declining.

Honestly we’re not that far off from green energy becoming significantly cheaper than fossil fuels. If you read the advances even in the last 5-10 years then you’ll see how it is accelerating. It could probably use a kick in the pants with some more R&D funding, but even without that it’s probably a decade or two away from really changing our energy grid. Aviation is a long ways off from losing fossil fuels due to energy density issues in flying something that heavy (we just don’t have the energy density available that matches jet fuel)....but for cars and the electric grid the change is probably going to be pretty quick.

Yeah there’s is a wealth of disinformation and conspiracy crap that comes with the honest reporting too. Usually articles that blast RCP 8.5 have another agenda too...I think it’s fine to criticize RCP 8.5 as unrealistic but it’s not an excuse to go into other conspiracies or use it as evidence that some other anti-science claim should be believed.

The 8.5 and the 2.6 are extreme goalposts scenarios so they are pretty useful in a statistical sense. But nobody should ever lead a headline with them when discussing new published literature IMHO. That’s kind of like leading a headline before a run-of-the-mill big snowstorm (say 8-14 inches) and claiming “this storm could drop 30 inches!!” because one ensemble member showed it...pure clickbait hype headline and probably will scare the shit out of a bunch of people unnecessarily. And from an advocacy standpoint, that kind of hype probably does more long-term damage to the credibility of the science and mitigation efforts than saying nothing at all. It’s kind of why I wish that there was a better medium to educate the public on the scientific literature rather than using mainstream media who themselves tend to be pretty ignorant of the literature...but there really isn’t unfortunately.

I work from home 3-4 days a week...eat that car emissions. I ain’t gonna feel one damned ounce of guilt if I fly for a vacation any time soon.

The ensembles spread is overwhelmingly skewed toward wide right rather than a cutter west. So for now, I’d agree that it’s mostly a hit vs a whiff right. But given the timeframe, you can’t rule out a cutter yet.

Only can see out to 144 but the GGEM has something brewing too. Honestly, we really don’t need to see further than that. It tells us what we need to know at this point. Multi-model support for a system next weekend, details TBD.

LOL I forgot about those commercials. “This is your brain....” ”This is your brain on drugs....any questions?”

Pretty big weenie run for eastern SNE. Just another solution though at this time range.

Oh I didn’t claim it wasn’t. The stats are plain as day. That’s why it’s called the crime wave of the 80s and early 90s. Its just the media hyped it. Scared the shit out of kids. Lol.

Meh...the media has done this for years. When I was growing up in the 1980s and early 1990s....everything was about the crime wave in the US. I started getting terrified for a while about robbers when was about 8. Shootings, kidnappings, home invasions, etc, etc. You would have thought you couldn’t walk to school without worrying about a murderer for a while. But we learned pretty quickly even as kids...the news media hypes. We still went outside and played ball. This is not that different. Climate change is a problem that needs a solution but the hype generally outweighs the true magnitude of the problem. I saw a news headline recently about what the state of the oceans would be by the 2050s. I clicked on the paper it was referencing and the news headline was based on an RCP 8.5 scenario from a CMIP5 climate model in the paper. I immediately laughed and closed the link. For those who aren’t as well-versed in the climate literature, an RCP 8.5 scenario is considered the worst case scenario. For example, it assumes we’re going to have 7 times the coal CO2 emissions as we do now despite the fact that coal emissions have peaked. In short, it’s a totally unrealistic scenario. My advice...never use the mainstream media for complex science in general. I also agree with Chris about the PV. I remember hearing it last year when that ridiculous January outbreak hit he Midwest. Of course, as usual, the media acted like the PV was something really weird and rare.

I moved all the climate weenie talk to the banter thread. Carry on over there...

Alright we can take the climate weenie discussion to banter.

Yeah I was fine with 00z. It was model noise to me. Now if we see a distinct trend of it getting worse then I’d worry about it. Even back when we saw the amazing progged pattern 2 weeks ago there were slight oscillations between each run before the real trend started toward garbage. The pattern isn’t perfect...ridge is a little west and the Atlantic remains largely garbage...tries to pop east-based ridging at times but meh.... Still, early to mid February is just about peak snow climo and a pretty decent pattern is fine with me. Just look up first half of Feb 2017 or Feb 2014. Those were basically dateline ridging and garbage NAO but we got crushed. Or hell, I don’t wanna start getting weenies riled up, but this isn’t perfection either...granted, I think we need to amplify the AK ridging a bit more to get a similar look but the ridge is probably a bit west of ideal

Yeah the 11-15 held steady. Looks good. I wouldn’t say it looks overwhelmingly great, but far better than we’ve had.

Yeah I’ve seen the air crash investigation show on that crash. Definitely some fault with ATC too but the crew never officially declared an emergency to ATC and they get more of the blame. Some of it was probably language too...standard language is English in aviation community for decades though in 1990 it was probably less widespread than now even though you had to know it. The crew kept asking for “priority” without saying the word “emergency”. The captain didn’t know English very well and the first officer did all of the communication. Also, the flight engineer should have told the captain and FO on the first landing attempt that this was it....they had to get it down then...there wasn’t enough fuel left to do a go-around but he never said anything. Tragic accident that didn’t have to happen.

Yeah....this. Some pretty horrendous posts lately about 168 or 204 hour solutions. Maybe we need to make a model thread again like before subforums. A place to discuss OP clown range solutions.

Those OP runs have a bit of a 2/13/14 feel to them. Keep in mind that ensembles are significantly further east right now and of the late bloomer variety.

Guidance is kind of the opposite WRT NAO and pacific. NAO looks mostly putrid still while PAC goes wild. Could change obviously.

You obviously want to see some consistency on the ensembles. They have absolutely been trending better and better the last 2-3 runs out in the 11-15...today was by far the best. There’s actually a pretty good PV split showing up in the stratosphere...not sure the prog 2 weeks ago ever had that much stratospheric support as good as H5 looked. I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic. There’s no reason to just ignore the EPS guidance. Dont go all-in either. If we’re getting this inside of 8-9 days and the 11-15 beyond that hasn’t regressed, then you can start chucking them weenies.

Here comes the EPS again in the longer range. It’s definitely shoving the PV down into our hemisphere now with the EPO dump.

Yeah that was definitely an A. Took a wide turn.

Signal is there on ensembles but obviously quite a bit weaker than the OP...which is no surprise when you are 7-8 days out.

Feb 1958, Dec 1960, Dec 1969, Jan 1978, Feb 1983, March 1993, Jan 1996, Feb 2003, Dec 2009, Boxing Day 2010, Feb 2014...just a few that come to mind off top of my head that did pretty well in at least parts of SNE But I’d still rather have a Miller B.

This is actually a good way to view the “threat”. Just ignore it for several days and then see what it looks like if its even still there.