ORH_wxman

Euro is close....but no cigar. Euro is definitely burying more energy than all the other guidance, so we'll see if it trends to releasing more going forward.

One of the southern stream events of the past that scarred me for a long time was one that crushed SE MA in a marginal airmass. Feb 28 - Mar 1, 2005..... Not what you would intuitively guess for a southern streamer in a marginal airmass, but they got like 15" of snow in 5 hours while our 10-12" forecast turned into 5-6" in ORH at verification time.

Today is as good a day as any.

I don't think we "need" it...but I do agree I'd rather have N stream all else equal. Probably a better storm that way dynamically speaking....but something like the Ukie would get it done.

Yeah Ukie goes nuts with the front-running southern vort. Good hit though. I'm skeptical of that look though.

I like the overall look a 114 hours on the GFS...the southern stream is in the mix but not bonkers and you have the potent N stream diving in to set it off. Regardless of what happens on the run verbatim, that's the overall look you want to see. Happens on several of our biggies including Feb 2013.

We've been reduced to asking for ICON maps at day 6.

It's too bad that newer NW Weymouth coop doesn't have good snow depth data....they had some choppy readings....they had 24 inches on 2/5 and then recorded 27.8" in the Feb 7-9 storm and then had another 14.5" in the Feb 14-15 storm but never recorded the depth again that winter. Though Blue Hill had even better numbers and I think their peak depth was 46 inches. Gets hard to add depth once you are up in that range. You really want higher water content snow at that point mixed into the pack. These were mostly powder.

Hingham coop peaked at a 43 inch pack too.....and 26 consecutive days over a 30 inch pack.

Yeah sometimes...guess it depends on the pattern. I can think of many that stubbornly stayed to our south in the final 3-4 days of tracking it. But I agree I'd rather have a gulf origin system showing a whiff or scraper vs being over ALB at this stage.

It's usually because cutters can go through Michigan or worse....so if they trend 400 miles east it is still a rainstorm. We're usually not tracking storms 300 miles east of George's Bank (maybe occasionally, lol).

Yeah I don’t hate the look this morning. I’m just not that invested yet. It’s 6-7 days out. There are plenty of ensemble hits. Not a lot that go west and a lot of whiffs. Hoping for a bit of a NW trend isn’t the worst spot to be at this range.

Way too early for that. We won’t know something that specific until much closer.

Nice on the Ukie. It was one of the few models in the past decade that was getting harder and harder to find maps online...while every other model was getting easier. Ukie did look like a powder keg at 12z on its final frame. So it would probably be in the group with hits closer to the coast. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Most big OES events on the cape are enhanced by an IVT. CHH had over 20 inches in a feb 1993 norlun event that was juiced by OES. I do remember what I think was a pure OES event that gave them around 8” on the outer Cape in the early 1990s. I want to say 1991 but I’m a little fuzzier than usual on the date because it didn’t happen IMbY. I remember Harvey explaining it one night on 6pm news.

Ice age scare of then 1960s and 1970s.

I think ORH was -14 that February. Coldest month on record beating out Feb 1934.

Fwiw, the 18z EPS is a lot more robust at 144h...doesn’t go out any further but clearly more members were closer

A lot. Everyone remembers “the big 4” but they had plenty of smaller refreshers too 1/24.........5.1 1/25-27...24.6 1/30-31...2.0 2/2...........16.2 2/5...........0.8 2/7-9........23.1 2/10-11....1.2 2/12.........1.0 2/14-15....16.2 2/17.........0.6 2/19.........2.4 2/21-22....1.2 2/25-26....2.1 That’s 13 measurable events in about a month. BOS became the picnic tables for a month.

That’s kind of a midlevel magic run for E MA. If I was forecasting that like 24 hours out, it’s the type where I’d go a few inches more than the qpf might indicate.

The 11-15 got more weenie-ish again. Ebb and flow on that...general theme is there though for a much better longwave pattern.

Not a bad spot honestly at d7

EPS have something a bit more substantial than the OP but clearly still skewing wide right

Most politicians are egotistical frauds. But that doesn’t mean some don’t push the right solutions for some things... It doesn’t have to be good intentions that produces the best path forward. You know the old saying anyways, “the path to hell is paved with good intentions”.

Bring back the pony express?