ORH_wxman

Sure...but you were on the line to begin with. Small changes in ejection of energy will lead to a noticeable sensible wx change. It could easily subtly shift back and then everyone will claim it was a massive model change. If you are only looking through the lens of sensible wx, that’s true...and I guess most are. But from a modeling standpoint it isn’t a big shift. It’s why so many of is were saying how the solutions would probably be pretty volatile with just small changes. Bottom line....keeping the southern energy very consolidated and robust is going to equal warmer solutions while shearing out just a bit could produce much colder solutions. Theres also the timing of the first wave which effects the 2nd one and where the boundary sets up.

Yeah the southern stream is digging a little more and staying more coherent. 12z yesterday was a little more sheared. We’ve seen these subtle change flip from run to run but it ends up mattering for the snow (moreso than the ice)

Yeah we’ll agree to disagree. These were relatively minor changes aloft that just had a bigger sensible wx change. Mostly on the GFS. Euro really didn’t change a lot.

Yeah that was a widespread event but not super damaging. But there were def some scattered power outages. Feb 1989 had a decent ice event too.

I honestly felt embarrassed reading through it. It’s not like we have a bunch of newbie posters either. There’s going to be some sensible wx swings even on just slight upper air changes. I think a lot of it is people deep down started at least half-believing the snowiest model runs yesterday and allowed themselves to get emotionally invested. No other real reason to explain the reactions this morning.

Thread is totally irrational this morning. Modeling didn’t even change that much for this coming week unless you were buying the OP GFS yesterday that showed a lot of snow. Even then it’s a slight change in timing of energy ejection that could produce a lot more snow. Half of these posts should just be flat out deleted. Making binary calls on an unstable setup at 4+ days out.

There could be a pretty nasty icing event over the interior on this with the mesolow look showing up on all guidance.

The Moosehead and Baxter state park areas of Maine make the white mountain national forest feel like Manhattan. I haven’t been yet, but even deeper into the Allagash backcountry up there north and west of BSP and you’re starting to get into one of the most isolated places in the CONUS...only the least populated areas of the west could challenge. I’m sure tamarack has been deep into those woods more than many. Some of the resident snow mobilers like dryslot too maybe.

Correct. On GFS at least. The timing may not be the same on all guidance though.

And I’m not really convinced the interior gets above freezing until FROPA on that thing. That has CAD/mesolow written all over it

Yeah it’s a fine line and I understand staying pessimistic too considering what’s happened the past 6-7 weeks...but if things break right, there could actually be some decent snow totals in the first 10 days of the month. The chances are there. We’ll probably know a lot more about our fate by Monday.

Euro likes the Miller B threat too on 2/8-9.

Good trend. We want that to eject in pieces to keep it positively tilted and colder.

Ukie did have an advisory thump before the parrots come flocking in...so we’d enjoy 6 hours of winter.

Miller B developing at d7-8 in clown range. What a weenie run that was.

There was a third wave that run too that was pretty cold. This is what’s going to happen a lot on these runs though...pretty noticeable changes. The boundary placement is hard enough but then the models are going to have to figure out how the energy is ejected in each round.

Might actually help round 2 though. Phasing a little more SW energy into wave 1 will yank the baroclinic zone south behind it.

Ugh. NWS BOX needs to figure out KBOS. At least it wasn’t a bogus #1 like July 2019 but when you literally have a 2-2.5F head start, it’s not going to take long to get another bogus #1. They are just going to pile up and be a completely useless climate site unless they figure it out. Maybe there was a permanent change on the airport site that just renders it useless. I don’t know. It’s not matching any of the mesonet sites around the airport and it certainly isn’t matching the other first order climate sites.

It would be interesting to look that up purely empirically speaking but I feel like that is correct too. The record high mins sort of back that up. I’m pretty sure the PJ as at a nadir in latitude as well during February which also backs up the “fewer cutters” idea.

Throw 2013 in there too. No depth going into February.

Still seems like we skew late even when we get wiped out before February or during February. 2019, 2018, 2016 all had zero during February before peak depth and even 2014 had just a couple inches going into February.

Good to stay pessimistic at this point. It def looks like a bit of snow and ice right now for interior especially, but it won’t take much to be cold rain either.

My deepest pack by date the past decade: 2010-2011: 39” (2/2/11) 2011-2012: 17” (10/29/12) 2012-2013: 26” (3/8/13) 2013-2014: 27” (2/19/14) 2014-2015: 42” (2/16/15) 2015-2016: 12” (2/5/15) 2016-2017: 19” (2/12/17) 2017-2018: 29” (3/14/18) 2018-2019: 16” (3/4/19) Only the shit winter of 2011-2012 wasn’t in February or March. Pretty funny it was in October. I love December and January snow too, but our deepest winter look almost always after those two months.

Yeah we have like 5-6 posters now. Might have to change the name of our subforum soon to add “Atlantic Canada” to it, lol. Ive always found that area interesting...I remember way back in the day some of the epic pics coming out of there in the 2000-2001 winter. It’s like they cleaned up on every storm that hit us that winter and then a few more. Sometimes we seem joined in the storm track and then other times it’s really different. But either way welcome to the newer posters.

Today’s EPS definitely emphasize wintry potential on wave 1 Don’t get married to the exact outputs though. These are almost guaranteed to change several times.