ORH_wxman

Funny thing is I learned to ski in the 1990-1991 and 1991-1992 winters. Those were horrendous winters but I didn't know any better other than "it normally is a bit snowier than this" adults would tell me. But your post reminds me of my first trip to Killington in that 1990-1991 winter. The 1st two days were actually pretty wintry and there had been recent snow. But then the 3rd day was like this. Pouring rain and temps in the 40s. Funny this is it happened again the next time we went a year later. I thought it was normal to get pouring rain and 40s with bare spots on the steepest trails roped off. Only after skiing all the years after that did I realize in retrospect how pathetic it was.

It's really a different shortwave that produces the 12/7-8 storm than produces 12/5 (or formerly produced it if we're talking Euro/GFS)

Really nice dprog/dT again on the heights in the Yukon/AK region. Looks like the 12z GEFS was real...at leats real enough for other guidance to see it. We'll see if it actually continues on future runs. Good trend today though at 12z.

Killington always had the deal (I think it's still there amazingly) where each kid 12 and under skis for free with the purchase of a 5 day adult lift ticket. That's prob one reason we went there a lot. Several resorts still have young kids ski for free any time (usually 6 and under or 5 and under) or reduced prices for older kids. I got some sticker shock on the day passes too a few years ago when I started skiing more again...but I actually did the math in my head and realized that it was pretty much in line with inflation since the 1990s.

I have a feeling you might be breaking out in a cold sweat if it evolved like that....watching cars with blocks of snow on them driving east on 93 past Blue Hill while the cars driving west are bare.

Yeah, to really make it affordable for a lower income person...you typically have to be in these bins: 1. Single or at least no family to support...pretty hard for a middle-low or lower income person to pony up the up-front cash for a season pass otherwise. 2. Live close enough to a ski hill to have a season pass. 3. Relatively flexible job where you can get out and ski some mornings or afternoons during the weekdays. A lot of people in their 20s up there fit all these requirements so they can ski for pretty cheap.

I wouldn't say it is splitting there...more like taking some punches. Getting elongated a little bit and also displaced. That's good enough though to get some good blocking/ridging into the AK region and north of there if it holds.

Knock yourself out. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020113012&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Here's the unrealistic clown map

Lol...I was looking at it and thinking "that probably would have an epic coast to 128/495 gradient".

Fwiw, the Euro system we're talking about is 12/7-8....NOT the 12/5 junk system. The 12/5 system on this run doesn't even really materialize...the southern stream gets cutoff in the southwest and we see a weak low develop almost overhead in NNE on 12/5. The reason the GGEM has a huge soaker for 12/5 is that it doesn't bury the SW energy like the GFS and Euro do.

12z Euro is getting interesting for D7....big changes on that northern stream shortwave diving in....much further west this run which could allow room for a system to redevelop south of us.

That's been the main difference....EPS almost want to try and build the heights higher further west in the D11-13 timeframe....while GEFS is confining the ridge more to the PNA region (and eastern EPO region)....the "broader" look on the EPS is still fine, but it's not as cold for the east. GEFS at 12z really went higher with the heights out west than it did even before....so it's definitely seeing something. We'll see if the EPS trend that direction. I think the GEFS look is more prone to sneaking in a coastal storm than the EPS look.

Yeah that was a big shift from prior ensembles runs...directly attirubted to the height rises in the AK/Yukon region....pushing a pretty stout PV south into Hudson. We'll have to see if other guidance goes that direction.

As an avid golfer and skiier myself, I would say both are pretty expensive sports. You can definitely cut corners and save money if you put in the effort to find deals and not get too picky on the equipment....but at the end of the day, you aren't going to be finding a lot of lower income people willing to pay even $25-30 for a lift ticket or greens fees. It is especially hard for these groups to find the cheaper fees on non-weekend/holidays when they aren't working.

Watch that dprog/dT on the heights in AK and adjacent Yukon.

Kevin's problem is he thinks mets talking about a more favorable pattern = "deep winter pattern".....he made that up himself. Sure, if you are looking for Stowe, VT weather with currier and ives eveyr other day plus 2 or 3 big storms with no pack loss in December, I would "agree" that we should be concerned that we will not get that. This isn't an epic setup, but it's far from the December 1999/2006/2011/2015 disaster type pig patterns. Best way to get deep winter with epic cold and no pack loss is to move to Caribou, ME. Down in southern New England, a decent December pattern still means you will risk some mild interludes or a cutter, but you have plenty of chances for snow events mixed in. You hope you roll 7s and not snake eyes.

There's been some awful takes in here. I don't see a reversion to the AK pig pattern at all. It doesn't mean we are going to definitely get snow, but we have a legit chance for events unlike when a pig pattern where the chances are remote. There's a lot of either deliberate trolling or just ignorance gong on here.....maybe we should break it down: Late November/first few days of Dec: AK pig pattern/torch....little chance for snow outside of upslope areas Dec 5 - Dec 15ish: +PNA/El Nino flavor pattern....legit chance for snow, especially from about 12/7 onward. Still a bit mild early on but getting colder as Canada starts to reload...esp by the 10th. Post-Dec 15th: Transition to more typical December La Nina? Could start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge. It looks pretty poleward though on early extended guidance. No sign of AK pig. More likely to see overrunning/SW flow events in this pattern vs coastals. But quick hitting coastals/redevelopers do still happen (see 12/25/17) This is obviously pretty far out, so it could change...maybe the El Nino look hangs on a bit longer than guidance shows (ala Dec 1975). We just don't know until we get closer.

You can forecast a grinch every year....just assume it will happen until you get close enough to rule it out.

Yep...you can see it at the H5 level a little bit too....look at the height trends N of the AK in the 11-15 loop....lot of rising heights up there.

Yeah next weekend def looks a bit different than even the 00z cycle and a lot different than yesterday’s 12z cycle. Still a tough ask for snow with the antecedent airmass but if things break perfectly you can’t rule it out. That change we’ve seen is step one in completing the Hail Mary.

No it doesn’t. Link?

The thing is, ensembles nailed this hideous end of November into early December pattern. Hasn’t been a surprise. I’m just glad that the pattern clearly shows a break and changes after first week of Dec. we’ve had many a winter where it sticks around and then you are screwed.

Sounds like dryslot is melting.

Yep. I’d watch next weekend if I was in a northern greens hamlet or some other typical upslope place that can do well on a CCB changeover with W or NW winds.... but down here we’ll need to hit triple 7s like twice in a row to get something significant out of it in terms of snow. Still some disagreement on exactly how the pattern shakes out after 12/5. GEFS and GGEM ensembles are still more amped out west, though they’ve converged some since last week.

I’d have to think 2010-2011 there definitely exceeded 80”. 1995-1996 did too...and prob approached (if not exceeded) 100” that year. ‘02-03 would have probably beaten ‘17-18 as well if we’re just discussing in the past 30 years or so.