ORH_wxman

Employment rate of younger adults/teens has steadily declined since peaking in the 1980s. Back then, ages 16-24 employment rate was 60%...it hovered around 58% in the 1990s and in the 2010s it's been consistently below 50% until 2017 when it finally made it back over 50% until the pandemic put a screeching halt to that trend.

Yeah the full fallout hasn't happened yet. That probably won't be felt completely until sometime next year. My guess is Q1/Q2 2021.

They still wouldn’t have broken the record i don’t think but I agree their sensor seems to be running about a degree too cold or slightly less than that. They probably are around #3 or #4 in reality.

Yeah the big amounts in Maine were all confined to the immediate coast enhanced by a CF. The larger synoptic snows were a bust...except once you got way out east in DE Maine.

Some networks backed down to like 3-5" for BOS the night prior to VD 2015. They finished with 16". That storm was a disaster on the model guidance in terms of QPF....it actually did pretty well on most of the mid-level features. We often call that storm the "Mid-level Magic Storm" because I remember we remained very bullish on that one given the non-QPF parameters. Harvey Leonard stuck to his guns pretty well in that one too despite models reducing QPF almost every run the final 24-36 hours and shoving it all up in Maine on a weird-looking WCB type frontal setup....which is what prompted the big forecasts there.

Yes.

1/27/11 was almost a whiff for SNE and some areas were in the 1-2" forecast zone which had to be rapidly changed to warning criteria.

That was the March 2013 "fire hose" storm. March 7-8, 2013....yeah, I ended up with almost 23" in that in ORH on a forecast of 4-8" or 8-12" dependng on who you looked at. NWS BOX was more aggressive than the TV mets on that one.

Yeah hard to get big surprises now. E MA/RI/SE CT had a good one on 1/30/18....weak 2-3" event forecasted and they got blitzed with 6-8". Thats prob the last good one i cant think of off top of my head in SNE. You could maybe fit Dec 1-3 last year into that in parts of SNE....nobody expect nearly 2 feet out just east of BAF/CEF....clocked with firehose overnight I remember.

Fell below 1949 yesterday by 0.1F and won't rise back above it today with a 52F low and highs in the low 70s. Whew....that was a close one.

Yeah in most winters where I have a snow pack intact for weeks on end, it’s usually accompanied by multiple storms refreshing the pack every so often. You get the rare winter where it snows a ton and then rots for 3 weeks (this happened in feb 2014 after we got crushed like 4 times in 10 days and then didn’t get crap for the next 3-4 weeks...and the snow pack started to get those radar shards from sublimation) but I feel 90% of the time it’s inherent that you are getting snow to refresh it. In your area, it’s true to an extreme. You’ll get upslope in addition to all the synoptic stuff.

Having gone to college out in central/western NY and also chased while out there, I have a love/hate relationship with LES. I think in the middle of an intense LES event can be hard to top...especially when it’s perfect snow growth and little wind...it’s almost magical seeing the 5” per hour stuff just stack straight up. But there is definitely a post-storm depression aspect of it when you look and it’s all compressed down to one third of its original depth within a day or two. Also, when that big event is elusive and you’re just seeing these 1-3” type events while it’s ripping 10” of high-QPF snow off to your east, it gets very frustrating very quickly. You start craving even a 6-7” synoptic snow with some meat to it.

Probably a good move re: NH plates. I definitely expect some states to freak out again this fall when cases jump back up (and they will), and that could affect access to ski resorts.

I was in BUF like 10 days after their 82” storm in late dec 2001, and it looked like they had gotten like 20”. LES is pretty sweet when it’s happening but the staying power is hideous, lol. Unless you’re in a place like the tug hill where it basically never stops.

Euros had a bad warm bias in the medium range it seems like. Hard to believe in a such a hot summer but it had so many 95-100F outbreaks.

Euro still has +20C 850s for Thursday which would easily be 90s....though it's shorter lived on the 00z run. I've been skeptical for "big heat" on that look....I feel like maybe one day of it. Non-Euro guidance is really never getting things above +16ish at 850. However, I do think we could see a longer period of above average temps....which is fine by me in September.

I’ve driven up MWN 3 times. It’s def kind of nerve wracking. Smaller car is def better.

Repeat of T-day 2018? 16F high under full sunshine (coldest max on record in November)

Yeah at least you get some really good Cape blizzards there and TCs that actually produce good winds.

Basically the first half of 2002-2003 and the 2nd half of 2000-2001 is what we're looking at here.

Yeah unhinged was probably hyperbolizing it a bit. We'll have to wait until this winter when Ray's area down to my area gets smoked in a classic 128/495 storm while you are 39F and heavy rain....Bryce will learn an entire new set of swear words. You'll make crankywx look even-keeled and logical.

He’s gotten a bit unhinged in the retaliation against ACATT. I’m a little worried.

Yeah that looks about right....looks like the spread is closer in August.

Sept furnaces are fine....unless they are truly historic, they usually lack a big punch like we see earlier in the summer. The really big stuff usually only ends up as like one day of 90+....unless maybe you are on the tarmac at BDL. I want it above average until maybe mid november. I'll embrace a couple cold shots to remind us the season is changing, but for the most part, give me like 80/55 in Sept and 70/45 in October.

Btw, is Kevin still using the NAM for tomorrow or did he give up on that model?