ORH_wxman

Lol....Hard to avoid saying that BDL sticks out like a sore thumb on that list.

Yeah it was cool going from clear skies with the moon visible about 10-20 miles out and then it got cloudy and a few flurries by the time I was at downtown Troy. Still, there wasn’t that much snow OTG...but once I start climbing the final slope toward the base, it just increased exponentially and it’s like I went into a snow globe with 2 feet OTG. It wasn’t heavy when I got there but a consistent 1 mile vis light snow with good dendrites stacking up....but at some point overnight it turned into a wind whipped upslope blizzard and woke up to an absolute white out. When I left the upslope storm wasn’t even done yet, but I was out of it just as quickly going home. Troy had more snow but it seemed like they “only” picked up about 5-6” additional from when I passed through there on the way up. Meanwhile up at the mountain they were nuking 30+. But man, that cold is what I’ll remember about that trip. That whole month seemed like it probably had trouble getting above 10F up there. Prob a good number of sub-zero days on the summits I imagine.

Yeah this year has def been brutal. Plenty of time to salvage though with a good warm autumn and a fast start to winter in December.

I was up at Jay peak in early February that year...it was around a week to 10 days before the vday storm.....and there was light snow cover all over New England. I left ORH with maybe 3” on the ground and by the time I got to N VT outside of Jay it was maybe 6”....I drove up into the mountain and went into a cloud of currier and Ives by the time I got to the lodge, there was maybe 2 feet OTG. It was evening...I woke up the next morning to an absolute upslope blizzard. Prob 8-10” new...I think they got 30 inches out of it. The thing that stuck with me was how fooking cold it was during the snow. It was like a 5F upslope blizzard. Not one of those 20F jobs. That month was damned cold and that frigid upslope event is always the memory I have of it. It was almost uncomfortable to ski in it with the wind and those temps...even for a diehard like me who doesn’t mind the cold.

I actually find his obsession with BDL absolutely hilarious in the summer. That site is total anathema to him in the winter. Completely ignores it once it turns cold and the narrative needs to be winter.

Their 18z high was 89F even though the hourly ob was 88F...but they are back down to 87F as of last obs.

Not time yet for him to be optimistic. Just wait until October. You’ll see the changes....they start subtle and then get more obvious as the month goes on.

Nice. That will be great in winter for obs.

Probably “first shot across the bow” airmass coming next week in at least NNE...SNE remains to be seen. The type of day where it’s like 70F and sunny and then all of the sudden when the sun disappears behind the hills/mountains, you lose like 15F really quickly and after another beer or two on the deck you look down at your hands getting pink from the chill. Next morning is like near 40F in the radiational cooling spots and you question leaving the window fan on all night.

It was the latter....I don't think we had any events that exceeded 8-10" in that month (maybe some rogue 12 inchers...esp CNE)...but we got hit by like 4 overrunning events plus a norlun that dumped 5-10" over a largish portion of E MA and SE NH/ME. The Kocin pattern comment was merely to observe that we sometimes obsess over the perfect setup only to be blindsided by a 40 inch month with a southeast ridge.

Even Dec 2013 wasn't exactly a Kocin Cookbook pattern, but we got walloped by a few storms that month

2008 was kind of similar too

Bummer, that puts all of New England out of the goods. There's always 2021-2022

Top 5 through 8/12 at all 4 sites....gonna lose ground though over the next week.

Lol, I was thinking the same thing.... Doesn't Kevin brag about wearing shorts when it's 45F? Now he needs to bundle up when its 59F.

I’d take the over at this point on 2035. We’ve basically had no trend in volume loss going back to 2010. You’d like to see something more discernible. Maybe there is another notable step-down currently in the works that will soon change the odds.

There's a lot of weak ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi region so I'd expect extent losses to accelerate again soon as a lot of that melts out and/or compacts, but we've lost any chance at a new record. I'm still expecting a top 3 lowest extent and area finish.

New England...where D0 and D1 conditions has everyone talking drought.

Euro seasonal is better than the others but in an absolute sense, it is still pretty inaccurate. It absolutely shit the bed last year even on the October and November versions IIRC. I also like to look at the H5 anomalies and not the 2m temp anomalies...they often don't seem in sync and the H5 anomaly forecast is going to be easier for the models to hit. IIRC, back in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, it was showing these monster ridges over AK/EPO region (that largely verified) but they had warm anomalies in southern Canada and into most of the CONUS which is totally at odds with that pattern. So the H5anomaly was a lot more accurate for forecasting the sensible wx than the 2m temp anomaly.

Most of us hate high dewpoints in here. It’s a minority of posters led by DamageInTolland.

The Himalayas (below the snow level of course) during monsoon season are a good bet for the record. They get absolutely unreal precip for a few months of the year.

I think you can be grandfathered in on that. There are several bars in ORH I used to go to that didn’t serve food. Like you could buy a bag of chips or something but they had zero actual meals or even hot snacks.

I don’t think anything looks particularly bad. The N ATL cold pool is kind of annoying but it doesn’t drive the pattern...it can just act to reinforce a +NAO if it stays that way. Weak Nina is actually a pretty decent enso state. Most of the other stuff is pretty stochastic and not easy to forecast.

We’ve now fallen behind 2012 on both area and extent for losses. It didn’t take long to close the 800k extent gap. There is a good amount of weakened ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi sector, but I don’t see us finishing below 2012 on either metric.

Was it last year when we had that ridiculous airmass to the north in August? Could’ve been 2018...can’t remember exactly. But there was accumulating snow in Quebec with it. I think parts of Maine had a freeze.