ORH_wxman

Welcome....I don't think this is too similar to the Mar '18 storms....maybe the closest match would have been the Mar 7-8 storm which had all the power outages. But this storm is going to be even warmer at the onset, so there's going to be a long period of rain before any changeover....esp in SE MA. If you are in upper SE MA like near Foxoborough, you'll change over a bit earlier than everyone else down there and could grab several inches.

It’s def gonna be slow once you are like inside of 495ish and def 128 I think. Heck, even ORH might take a little while with a lot of rain during the morning. If ORH is ripping snow by 10-11am, that will be a good sign for prob the 128-495 belt. If the 128 BOS suburbs are ripping by 18-20z then that is a good sign for BOS to potentially grab advisory type snows. The window for BOS is prob like 5pm to 10pm or something like that with a stinger tail on the CCB.

I remember we were like "good thing the wind turned more northerly and cooled it into the upper 20s for the second half of the storm"....otherwise it might have flattened the whole forest.

Oh yeah, if I was making an official forecast, I'd prob go like 10-20 or something....keep the range a little bit wide. I'm always leery of the last second tickle east on these compact systems.

Unless this shifts east, I'd be really surprised if he doesn't crack 15"....that wind direction is good there. NE and then N to eventually NW. Plus he won't have to "waste" any qpf on rain.

Ask Ekster about trees snapping behind his house after like 2-3" of glop partway into the 1/14/08 storm in Attleboro.....it was like 2am and he's saying shotguns blasts are going off behind his house from like 2" of waterlogged cement, LOL.

I mean, that's basically how the dryslot filled in on 12/9/05....it was like convective cells feeding into the CCB band and the whole thing just kept strengthening and expanding, lol. That's really the uncertainty in the forecast....how the "stinger" potentially develops in the late afternoon/early evening.

Here's the 30h height field, plus 30 and 36 hour RH fields....it's moving E between 30 and 36h...so metrowest may get into the good stuff for a time....but you can def see that it's prob dryslotted out to like rt 128 at 18z tomorrow.

3/30/97

Best chance for BOS area I think is evening when that stinger rotates through....hopefully it is still very intense. If it is, they could see 2-3 hours of pretty good stuff.

The airmass was a lot better in the Halloween event though.....funny we are saying that for a 12/5 storm. But yeah, once this CCB gets cranking and the storm is imploding over the Cape and just north, that is when near BOS could rip for a time. It will only happen though if were seeing huge UVVs. They may be rotting west of BOS metro for a while in late afternoon.

I think 12z is a touch more intense.

It's almost identical to 06z...it looks maybe a hair slower but the same track.

It's a stronger storm, but not necessarily west of 06z yet.

Phasing is slightly better by 24h...so this should be a hair west of 06z on the euro.

I believe it was the woodbury coop

Euro looks slightly weaker with the southern stream at 12h vs the 06z run through 12h...not a big change though.

Scooter just smashed his laptop over his snow blower.

I made a map of it years ago for SNE

I've seen the herpes be pretty awful. That said, I kind of like the non-hydrostatic models in this one as we get inside 36 hours. They are going to be able to resolve that very intense (but localized) convection that will be occurring in this bombing low.

It's interesting that it has the same band that the RGEM has at 33 hours where I was complaining about it having -1C 925temps and -3C 850 temps and keeping me rain....but the herpes has that same band as heavy snow

42h panel for the Mainers

Ukie came west, but still definitely east of guidance like the RGEM/GFS....NAM was maybe slightly west of the Ukie.

This is going to be an interesting storm to track from the pure precip rates standpoint and how it matches up with the ptype....I think there's going to be a very high correlation if I had to guess. Like the first 6-8 hours of this thing kind of slog along with moderate (to maybe low-end heavy) precip and that's when all the toaster baths are gonna happen. Then all of the sudden, those ridiculous echoes on radar rotate in and I can envision a ton of people posting that flakes are mixing in and then changing over.

There is a 0% chance you'd be saying this if you were still in Franklin county.