ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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At least you are in the best possible spot save downeast ME if anything happens Thursday night....can't get much further east than Rockport. edit: Actually reminds me of an event in the mid/late 1990s...I can't remember if it was 1996 or 1997 since I didn't experience the event. But Rockport/Gloucester got clipped with an IVT/OES piece and got like 6-7" while 10 miles west had nada.
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We need to make a Tshirt for you now that you have been at this for 25 years. We'll call it a 25th anniversary gift. "Ray's Kryptonite: Harping on ORH always being far enough in one direction since December 1996"
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I'd watch it there too...you might be too far southwest, but it's close on some models.
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Yeah it's like the lowest 2-3k feet of the atmosphere it's struggling with. But that can often be overplayed....esp near the coast. If the lowest levels are more like N aroudn Cape Ann, then that's where something could go nuts. Obviously digging that ULL further southwest will help the tug the sfc IVT further west too....so they are all connected.
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You may be a little on the warm side for the first IVT tomorrow night with 34-35F slop....but you also might get a 32-33F paster. We'll have to see. The 2nd IVT Thursday night is in the arctic airmass and that is where there could be a surprise on Cape Ann. That could be a true Norlun type setup if it broke right.
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The omega is actually half-decent back to like ORH.....that definitely has a little bit of bust potential. I wouldn't forecast accumulations right now for Thursday night, but that's kind of a red flag. Several parameters in place. Models don;t like to spit out QPF in the arctic airmasses like that and often screw it up.
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Still gotta watch Thursday night too for extreme eastern zones...esp downeast ME to Cape Ann and maybe Cape Cod...but even NAM is trying to get a little finger of precip inland a little ways. That's a pretty unstable sounding so something to keep an eye on. 900mb winds almost turn N to NNE around there....so in addition to the LL convergence, there's a chance of an OES band or two to develop for time on Cape Ann and Cape Cod.
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Tomorrow might not even precipitate for a chunk of the day....might be like 37F and overcast with spitting drizzle or a few cruddy flakes before it reignites tomorrow night under the IVT.
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The IVT tomorrow night in E MA and SE NH is pretty impressive on the NAM and 3km....it's several tenths of QPF with the low level lift intersecting at about -8C to -10C. That could potentially be pretty nice with the salt nuclei.
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Whoa....that ramped up. Borderline warning for the pike or just north. Meso short terms like it too (HRRR/RAP) but wasn't sure if they were just being their usual overzealous selves more than 6-8 hours out.
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Avg highs of 40F aren't reached in SNE until late February (have to wait until 1 week into March for places like ORH)
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Could be really intense too...but it looks like it might be too far east....downeast maine could actually be in a good spot. Acadia FTW....could clip the Cape too. But yeah, if that ULL trends a little SW, it could get pretty interesting.
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Go ahead and start a thread tomorrow if we’re still looking good. You mentioned this system a few days ago in a lengthy post...so take it home. I doubt the threat is going anywhere as I agree with the reasons you have brought forth. It’s the strongest signal we’ve seen since the 12/17 storm which we tracked from 8-9 days out...this one has that type of look that produces the staying power on guidance.
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Dendrite pointed it out on one of the earlier runs too. It looks glitchy.
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Lol I’m just messing around. He already mentioned further back in the thread that there was no relation.
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They only run 18z EPS to 144h.
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Steve Nogueira is Scooter’s dad.
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They are ok. Nothing amazing. We keep the -NAO until it breaks down during the 3rd week of February. Aleutian ridge becomes more poleward too later in the month. Might mean more gradient but who knows. Past week 3 has the usual caveats.
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Also an outside shot at an arctic fluff surprise for Cape Ann and Cape Cod Thursday night/early Friday after everyone else has finally ended. Would need that ULL to dig as far southwest as possible but some guidance is showing potential there.
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Union is the highest by far I think. They breach 1200.
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Burrillville RI could be a nice spot too. All depends if an IVT sets up for a while. GFS says it does but other guidance a little more mixed on the idea.
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Yep he is chastising someone for not specifically mentioning Tolland.
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Near the coast will struggle a bit. Prob a couple inches of wet snow. Interior elevated will do pretty well. That’s where we’ll see the best chance for some spot 4-6” amounts imho if they happen. There is also an outside chance that Cape Ann and Cape Cod get some arctic fluff late in the game from that ULL diving in...that wouldn’t be until Thursday night though if it happens.
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http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?mod=ncep&yyyy=1947&mm=12&dd=31&run=18&lang=en&area=na They have sfc pressure on there too, but the underlying shaded contours are H5 heights.
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1/12/11, 12/30/00, 3/3/60, 3/20/58....to a lesser extent 12/11/92....maybe 2/4/61 and 3/22/67.
