ORH_wxman

1/29 does look better this run. Still a whiff but it improved a lot.

Watch it in CT. Esp Luke’s hood.

Euro coming in better for 1/26. Still needs work but that was a nice trend.

Gonna be hard to get that type of trend with this blocking in place. Best chance is to keep that PV lobe in central Canada close enough that it may try and inject a little energy into it or at least be far enough west that it bumps up the heights downstream in Quebec.

Actually had a decent little weenie band for the pike region.

Oh yeah for sure. Eastern areas are in the worst spot. For here I’m kind of hoping for something that extends from like ALB and goes ESE across my area....but the best chance for something bigger is def down in CT..esp SW CT.

It is kind of amazing just how close synoptically we are to two warning criteria storms within 3 days of each other. One of them potentially a KU.

Nope. Was more amped to the west at 108 but the vortex then trends in from the northeast to block it at the perfect time.

1/29 might be interesting on GGEM

I’d def still watch for a surprise on that system. You can see how it would work out...you keep a kink in that h5 shortwave as it crosses SNE longitude rather than becoming almost totally flat. When the little curl is maintained, those are the solutions that spit out 0.4 or 0.5 qpf.

1/29 has a way higher ceiling if it somehow get north but I also think it’s less likely to get you shovelable snow than 1/26 where you are. I actually think you have a realistic shot at a decent band down there with the first system. 1/29 seems like it needs more help.

GFS isn’t buying it. Lol. Ukie was decent for you last night though. In the end though, we all really know that the euro needs to show the trend.

Nice bump north for you on the JV models so far at 12z. ICON and RGEM. You aren’t done yet for 12/26. Now just need the varsity team to come on board here to believe the trend.

Gotta get out to Tahoe this week. One of those 100” weeks incoming.

GGEM making a run at 1/29 as well. Not quite enough but that’s interesting at least.

Totally different than other guidance and the 12z run up north. Amazing how it changes from run to run. Prob irrelevant north of the pike but for your area it matters a lot.

Actually scrapes SNE now. I was surprised to see how far north H5 was just looking now.

GFS was marginally better for 1/26 too even if it was still a crap result....it’s getting that shortwave pretty far north off to our west now. That’s a trend we want to see.

There’s a decent band in NY with a lot of PVA to the west so it’s a little more interesting than the previous runs imho.

Keep forgetting 18z stops at 90h but that looks pretty decent for at least CT trying to extrapolate. Might be ok for pike too.

18z Euro coming in more amped. We’ll see if this is good for CT at least.

18z GFS was a mild improvement. Def still need to watch this in CT especially.

12z EPS:

3 of the seasons since 2016 have been La Ninas too which favor SE ridge anyway. Though I will point out how convenient it was for the first half of this January the Hadley cell high gradient was nowhere to be found when we needed it.

This is kind of a loaded question? When do you define "since climate change?" Because ORH had like 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015....also 2 Januarys of 45"+ (2011 and 2015). Did CC start in 2016? Or maybe it's just 5 years doesn't mean a whole lot. 11 out of 15 Jan/Feb combos from 1979 to 1993 failed to produce a single 20" month (meaning both January and February were below 20" in the same winter). Since 2000-2001, only 5 winters out of 20 have been able to match that same feat where both Jan/Feb each were below 20" in the same winter. We've had two in a row...this year would be 3. We've been spoiled rotten for a couple decades and now we're eating a little regression pie.