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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn’t rule out a light event on Dec 25-26 yet. Both the euro and GFS show it.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully Ray has an update on his blog soon.
  3. ORH_wxman
    The main trough trending better isn’t enough on this threat unless it’s very strong changes…it needs to overcome the southern stream destructive interference happening. That will take the type of trend you don’t typically see inside of 100 hours. We’d need a pretty substantial positive trend at 12z for me to entertain more than 1-2”.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Hey, 18z had a pattern flip at day 15.
  5. ORH_wxman
    It could easily just be a few flurries. We’ve had plenty of model runs that show almost nothing. It could end up as a 1-3/2-4 deal too but there’s no reason to dismiss flurries or nothing. The PAC pattern could easily support a larger event. We had pretty meridional flow. But we ended up with wave spacing issues in the southern stream. That’s something you can’t see in the longer range. Individual shortwaves are hard to predict.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yep…sandwiched in no man’s land for Friday. Big squander of a decent longwave pattern if we whiff but that’s the game sometimes. Hopefully we still pull off a few inches but I’m getting skeptical. The EPS mean is 1-2 inches across a chunk of SNE. I noticed maybe 25% of the members or so had 3”+ for at least part of SNE…so can’t rule out a lighter event but this longwave pattern had potential for something much larger so it’s disappointing either way.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Miller As have always been more precarious in New England. Sometimes they’re great and other times they are awful. Miller Bs are more common in general just because they come from northern stream redevelopers and the northern stream is far more active than the southern stream most years.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Mar '01 was more of a Miller B. Sort of hybrid system maybe. There were some decent Miller As in the 2010s too. They didn't always hit us though....Feb 5-6, 2010. Dec 26, 2010. Jan 26-27, 2011, Feb 13-14, 2014, Jan 22-23, 2016, Jan 4, 2018.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks worse than 06z....it really is a shame because it's a very solid shortwave diving SE toward the lower mid-atlantic, but there's just no ability to lift the heights downstream with the southern stream turd messing up the spacing. Without that, you're prob looking at a fairly healthy Miller B.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Every piece of guidance sans GFS is significantly better than 00z. Still needs more work though on most of these solutions. We haven’t been able to get a consistently positive trend for multiple cycles in a row though which is what this system needs. The euro also needs to come in better I think for me to really entertain this being still in play on the 00z guidance. When I say “in play”, I mean for something that’s at least 4”+….a C-2” deal isn’t what I’m discussing.
  11. ORH_wxman
    GFS was a terrible solution. GGEM is definitely a large improvement...prob advisory snowfall for interior on that.
  12. ORH_wxman
    It's the NAM, but interesting trend on the 12z run....everything further west with the main shortwave and that includes the TPV up north. If other guidance follows suit, that would help bring this thing much closer/further west.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Most of the ensembles are prob whiffs, but there is definitely a subset that are likely significant hits...you can see the spread still
  14. ORH_wxman
    EPS increased the mean QPF a decent amount so there must be some decent members in there. We really need another positive step at 12z today if we’re trying for something other than light accumulations.
  15. ORH_wxman
    It’s garbage. Maybe you get lucky and get more than an inch of slushy paste but that event is complete trash except for a narrow stripe in NNE and maybe adjacent CNE.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Correct. You can’t amplify a shortwave diving down when there’s a southern stream vort ahead of it keeping the downstream heights lower…it prevents the essential downstream ridging to occur in front of out main shortwave that is needed to create a coastal in this setup. So we either need to it speed up and get out of the way (ICON sort of showed this) or slow down enough to get captured by the northern stream. Otherwise you just get destructive interference.
  17. ORH_wxman
    GFS southern stream is a big problem that you didn’t see on the icon run. Note around hour 102 on that southern stream vort. It’s still onshore on the GFS and it’s way offshore on the icon.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Just caught up on 12z stuff. Not the trend I wanted to see, but it wasn’t fatal IMHO. Kind of more status quo. Still decent spread looking at ensemble guidance. There’s a solid chance of a modest event. The PNA ridge is so damned tall that I don’t mind a little optimism still…as in I don’t think it’s completely unfounded. But I do think you need to see some better trends going forward. Status quo won’t really cut it if we’re aiming for more than a small event.
  19. ORH_wxman
    As we get inside 6 days, the changes will matter more. They are more likely to be correct and not just stochastic variance so that’s why we want to see the deeper solutions returning pretty quick during the next couple of cycles. When we’re 180-200 hours out, the run to run changes mean very little. By the time we’re like 120-132 hours out, any significant moves are more likely to reflect reality.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s absolutely embarrassing the state of our old obs archives. It’s literally a bunch of text and we have trouble getting it. Does this site have them? They have a bunch of stuff but not sure if they have hourly METARs…maybe someone with more patience and time that’s I have today can search it https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml I used to grab old AFDs from here
  21. ORH_wxman
    It trended the wrong way though which is concerning. Want to see more amplification on todays runs or the ceiling on this threat will be quite a bit lower. I’ll still take any snow, but the higher end potential is gone if you aren’t digging that shortwave down into the southern midatlantic.
  22. ORH_wxman
    06z euro looks more like GFS. Clipper type system but you’re pretty close to redeveloping that for something bigger. We need to trend this back toward digging the initial shortwave deeper and that’s how you get a higher end system
  23. ORH_wxman
    Classic….KNZW Infamous for the heavy snow from OES and sleet from synoptic precip in one of the Jan ‘94 storms.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah ensembles slightly better than 12z. Hopefully we start seeing some more consensus in the next day or two.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Ensembles continue to show a pretty significant warmup between Xmas and New Years. Weeklies continue to show a rapid reload to a much colder pattern in January lasting most of the month. I’ll believe it when I see it but I do believe the reload part is real. You can see the very beginning of it at the end of the regular EPS run.
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