ORH_wxman

Too far north with the heavy rates. Gonna struggle to get north of HFD-PVD....light snow will get north of that, but I ain't seeing 1-2" per hour norht of them.

Pretty good weenie band on the south coast right now

Reggie improved from 06z....tries to get some weenie ML stuff to regenerate throughout the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

It';s shearing out...so I'm not high on that one...maybe it trends back,.

Looks pretty solid for SW CT crew...

Ensembles are quite amped on the 2/26 threat. I'm not buying a mid-atlantic snowstorm yet on that look.

Overnight tonight could have a few weenie bands further north....something to watch. HRRR tries to reinvigorate some ML goodies tomorrow afternoon too, but that is where other guidance like the Euro has basically been nil.

SW CT is going to do well in the first round,.

06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though.

Icon is a lot better too. Quite a sizable move from 18z.

RGEM is looking better actually. Nice little bump NW.

Our weather in New England in spring is an utter dumpster fire most of the time....I’d rather have an event give me an inch of snow over 40 hours than entertain the idea of enduring countless wheel-o-rhea days to try and sneak in a few nice ones in between. Anyways, 00z NAM definitely didn’t help anything on this storm. 3km continues to look a little better than 12km.

That was the 21z run which was quite north of 18z....below is 18z

Let’s see if others at 00z bump north first. I’ve had this feeling we’d see a bump north with this being a southern origin but obviously nothing is guaranteed. I have also thought the models would play a little catchup on the midlevel stuff. Hopefully that is the case.

18z Euro was still pretty meh. Looked a little better tomorrow afternoon though down south.

That def what it looks like. That’s the beginnings of the east slope of the Wapack/Monads. The drier air may be draining down from Maine more efficiently to the east of that.

It was more than Vernon but the median still had bare patches. It was def less than north of exit 71 in Union where it was fully covered in the median. But exit 68-69 is down around 500-600 feet on that stretch.

Was in CT today, big difference in pack around Willington/Union....basically once I hit exit 71 going north on 84 all the grass patches in the median disappeared and pack increased until around MA border, then it leveled off before increasing again around ORH. The NOHRSC map shows it pretty well. Pack was much thinner too once south of Exit 68 in Vernon. But it was always pretty much full coverage except the medians/sun torched slopes. It’s just even the medians were snow covered north of exit 71.

Haven’t been on most of today, but looking at guidance, I still think there’s some upside for that midlevel stuff. I’ll def want to see a notable trend at 00z tonight though.

Yeah that’s where the upside is IMHO...unless you are near the south coast...esp in CT where you may do better from the thump.

Not sure why you insist on double digit snowfall. I don’t totally hate the upside of this storm but a lot would need to go right to pull 10-12. It hasn’t trended that way so far.

You are definitely correct LE is by far the more important factor. That’s why fluff melts out so much faster regardless of how cold it may have been the day before. I still consider a variable that may be 5-10% part of the equation as mattering though.

Spoiled rotten....once you grab a couple double digit storms in a season, advisory or even low end warning is meh, esp if it all doesn’t fall in 4-5 hours. I get it, big rates are fun, but they just don’t always happen with the frequency we desire. The alternative is partly cloudy, 37F and breezy with warm bum-bums in the car if you park it in the sun while the pack sublimates. No thanks. I’ll happily take an advisory refresher. Funny part is if this event was on the docket last February, it would be a totally different vibe...we couldn’t buy a 3” storm last winter after December until spring time.

500mb height/vorticity map is a good crude one....but if we want to get a little more weenie-ish I’ll look at 700/850 levels for signs of warm fronts. But typically the H5 level is good for looking where the best upper level support is. There’s a disconnect in this system...the WAA burst is running way ahead of the upper level stuff, and that can be risky for driving the baroclinic zone too far seaward, but it seems like it hangs back enough on a lot of these runs to allow the upper air to reinvigorate the system before it slides east. This is the part I’m most enthusiastic about trending better. Down where you are, maybe the thump can be good, but it’s sort of shearing out as it goes into SNE. Maybe that changes on future runs....ideally we’d get both.