ORH_wxman

Reverse psychology.

Couple of potential S/Ws behind that. One for like 1/18 and another for 1/20. Of course, shortwaves can disappear and show up more than 3-4 days out so that caveat applies. People are sick of hearing it, but that’s a great look. We didn’t cash in on the “decent” pattern which stinks (unless we see a miracle inside of 5 days here), but now we reload into a great pattern after 1/16ish.

Reverse psychology.

False.

He’s always yearned for winters of yore....he’s getting a taste of them. It’s like a milder version of the 1980s/early 1990s

We’re also less than 11 months.

Reverse psychology.

I actually don’t even hate that look on the D15 eps...nice cross polar going there and a -NAO. It would be very active. Id still rather have the big ridging out west because our biggest storms happen that way.

WTF how much snow did Madrid get? Is that like a 1 in 200 year storm for them?

That would be kind of funny actually if the pattern broke down very quickly after the 20th and we still hadn’t gotten anything. Epic melts. At least the -NAO is still around on that with a -WPO. Maybe I’ll take my chances with PJ slamming the PAC with a -NAO over this crap. Go Feb ‘69.

Solid Ray melt. I get it though. Boring as hell on model guidance right now. Euro deciding to throw a cutter in there is a good topper too. Clown range or not. Prob best to just watch football all weekend and then check back in Monday to see if things have changed for later next week.

Definite shift on guidance for next week. The follow up wave is coming in quite potent so there may be a threat on 1/14 if thats real. GFS and GGEM both showed this shift. Ukie was a little more muted. Anyways, something maybe to watch. We’ll see what Euro does.

I actually still have snow cover in shaded spots from Sunday night. But it’s been like the same thing every day. Highs in upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s.

Lack of baroclinicity can definitely be a detriment to storm development. Storms love to form on boundaries and we've had a very weak temp gradient between NNE and the lower mid-atlantic during much of the past 2 weeks.

GGEM is trying for 1/12-13 again...scraper.

We got a 26" Ariens in fall of 2018 after hand-shoveling March 2018 was my breaking point....thing is a beast. I think they discontinued the 26" model after that year....now they have either 24 or 28. The key is how well it handles the snow banks at the end of the driveway. We have a wrap-around driveway living on the curve of a road on a hill. Worst possible spot for monster snow banks, they all get thrown to the outer part of the curve there so we'll get like 3 foot snow banks on a 10" storm. And because it's a wrap-around, we have two entrances to clear of snow banks. If you need to deal with high water content snow banks that pile up, then you definitely want a monster that can handle it. Otherwise, I feel like you can easily get away with something smaller and less powerful.

Also the caveat that the SSW might actually help us in February and the weeklies wouldn't be able to see it yet. I'm generally an SSW skeptic (in that the hype is way overplayed), but the timing of this one might actually be ideal.

Next week is a decent pattern, we're just not going to cash in. The pattern continuously improves through the month, but we're already in a decent pattern by next week. Shortwave nuances screw up the 1/13 threat though.

Yeah I agree. The hemispheric pattern becomes a lot more favorable for an arctic intrusion later in the month assuming guidance has a clue. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a legit polar express shot show up at some point post-ides

No real changes? All systems go for 2nd half of the month. Let’s hope it delivers.

Yeah it did. That was kind of weird but probably not totally surprising given the trouble that model guidance has had handling all these shortwaves. I’d still lean against a storm right now but we certainly cannot rule it out yet.

I think the most "useful" aspect of an SSW going on right now for snow lovers is that it would act as a major vehicle to disrupt the baseline La Nina Feburary climo (even if we take your stance that it is a muted ENSO climo signal with hadley cells....if anything that probably makes the Feb la nina climo even worse). Feb Nina is usually not all that favorable for our region unless we have some -AO assist or other disruption and the SSW could be that disruption we want.

The Dawn Awakening?