ORH_wxman

This is kind of a loaded question? When do you define "since climate change?" Because ORH had like 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015....also 2 Januarys of 45"+ (2011 and 2015). Did CC start in 2016? Or maybe it's just 5 years doesn't mean a whole lot. 11 out of 15 Jan/Feb combos from 1979 to 1993 failed to produce a single 20" month (meaning both January and February were below 20" in the same winter). Since 2000-2001, only 5 winters out of 20 have been able to match that same feat where both Jan/Feb each were below 20" in the same winter. We've had two in a row...this year would be 3. We've been spoiled rotten for a couple decades and now we're eating a little regression pie.

Yeah this is part of my "evidence-based argument" that I have seen lacking. I've seen a few theories like "when we get a cold pattern in October, we often see regime shifts every 4-6 weeks which line up for a poor early winter"....well, some of these patterns weren't even that cold, more like cold shots in an otherwise normal/mild October (both 2020 and 2011 qualify). But even if that wasn't the case, 2020 just blew that argument to pieces with a good December pattern for snow including our largest region-wide snowstorm since 2018 or maybe even 2015. But you can test the regime change theory anyway....it would say that cold Octobers should correlate significantly to shitty winters. But they don't.

Sure, but two problems: 1. It's a sample of like 4-5 occurrences between 2000 and 2020. 2. What part of climate change would make October snowfall more likely to produce a poor winter? I'm open to the concept, but I haven't seen a good evidence-based argument yet. Until I do, I'm not going to adopt it as a logical theory.

I didn't worry. There's no evidence to support it matters. The October snow myth is like a gambling junkie convincing himself that because the roulette table went 4 reds in a row, the 5th has to be a red too. It's based on recency bias....people are scarred from 2011 and 2009, but don't look at 2002 or 2000.

Almost time for warm bum-bum posts.

Pretty similar to 00z....12z yesterday was zonked crazy and that's what we want to get back to.

Oh that was Jan 3rd and 4th....you kept saying New Years Day. 4-8" wasn't forecasted ever in that one though. We were hoping it might turn into that type of storm a couple days out, but it never got better.

Also, that first week of February is pretty interesting to me still. You have more of an east based -NAO and some ridging out west. 2/1 looks kind of cutter-ish, but after that one looks more favorable....2/1 is still pretty close to the west-based blocking breaking down though, so it could end up flatter too.

Which storm are you referring to?

Man, that is some sweet fronto band over S tier of NY....congrats BGM again. Just need to maintain that slightly longer to the east.

Ray advocating for hoping for a 4" crusty SWFE in February.....never thought I'd see the day.

Sure, nobody argued they weren't? But your chances are way higher with downstream blocking than without which is why I'd never choose the non-block scenario unless it was prefaced with a 2015 PNA ridge....which isn't happening anyway during a February mod La Nina.

Downstream blocking slows down the flow which is what you want for a bigger event. I'd definitely roll the dice with that rather than hope we get well-timed highs in a SE ridge fast-flow pattern.

Ha, if a garbage pattern would produce 4 SWFEs....that's an important assumption.

Here's a couple radar images....first is when the badn is just backing in....and 2nd is after it had been stationary for a few hours and starting to slink back E a bit....but you can tell that the canal area got destroyed

I def want to keep the NAO negative this February....it's likely total garbage without it. I'll take my chances rolling the dice with it....shortening wavelengths might even help phase part of a PV lobe or something.

Bigger issue on 1/29 is the block up north...it tries to retrograde a PV lobe enough to prevent it from amplifying. It actually looks pretty good out west on several different runs before it approaches.

That one looked like ka-ka last night after trending better during the day. Hopefully it comes back.

I think you are looking pretty good down there...and esp over to SW CT. Getting more confident they see something shovel-able. I'd like to see one more solid bump north for the pike region. We still have plenty of time and as we've seen so far with the model guidance, only small shifts in the orientation of PV lobes and blocking up north has outsized effects on the sensible wx impact down here.

06z EPS bumped back north too.

Yeah but it’s kind of expected in this setup. Most models have been flopping around. Dealing with the block and those two pv lobes which directly affect how far north this storm can go. These are minor shifts up north but they tend to matter a lot in the sensible wx for this one.

06z Euro came back north some. Only goes out to 90h but better than 00z at that point.

Euro regressed too. Ukie was indeed a harbinger. Euro actually did the same thing as the 12z run with that lobe (after the 18z run had gotten better). Unfortunately, unlike the 12z run, the EPS looked a touch worse too. So we will need to see that trend reverse.

Yep. Ukie first model tonight to go south. Hopefully not foreshadowing the Euro.

GGEM def improved. Prob warning snows for SW CT and advisory snows elsewhere in SNE.