ORH_wxman

We had an exceptionally good run of Decembers in the 2000s....been a little bleaker since then, though the last two years have featured pretty big storms in December. They just got ruined by Grinch storms, lol.

Yeah and this could change a lot still....the models almost certainly haven't figured out the orientation of the large ULL and embedded shortwaves yet...so even the first one could end up colder too (or warmer). But I do think there is likely to be a legit winter threat out of that whole trough/ULL somewhere on this forum between 11/3 and 11/7. Then it looks like we moderate for a while mid-month (which has been showing up on ensembles for a while now)....and then perhaps go colder again late month if the weeklies are correct....both the CFS and the Euro weeklies show a N PAC change by late month which produces much colder pattern.

I'm more interested in the system behind it...11/6ish. The 11/4 system is prob not going to be cold enough outside the higher elevations of NNE.

Euro ensembles show the possibility of the 11/5-6 system. It won't really matter though until we're another 3+ days closer.

Nice Scooter....that's some man damage there.

This map is crazy. You can see where the winds mixed down. It hasn’t been bad over the interior...though around here we’ve been gusting pretty good since around 3am.

Is MQE not reporting? I see no obs there.

21z rap has like 70 knots at 950mb (not 925mb) on the south shore. Some areas there are gonna get absolutely smoked. Basically 1000 feet off the deck. Pine hills right on the shore there in PYM are prob ground zero. But some of the exposed spots up toward BOS (like Braintree/Weymouth/Marshfield axis) could get hit very hard as well.

I haven't read super recent literature on this, but a decade-plus ago it was undersampling of shortwave energy and underestimating latent heat release in the warm sector which provides a feedback to amplifying the trough. I suspect the data sampling issues aren't as bad as they used to be, but the latent heat problems would still persist to an extent given how most of our guidance obeys hydrostatic balance.

Old EE rule in effect....take 'em up on the coast.

Yeah I'm thinking Logan airport gets in the 60-65 range....but maybe they can crack 70. It's a good storm motion for them and the inversion does weaken some as it moves west....esp on the coast.

12z Euro has 83 knots at 925mb over his fanny tonight....LOL

ORH will be a good gauge....they are further east and exposed on NE winds, so they are going to be on the higher end of anything in the interior.

Unless you have an accurate anemometer, we'll never know....if trees fall over when you get 35mph gusts, then that means they fall over from sub-wind advisory criteria.

Too far west there.

NAM even has BOS at 60 knots at 1000 feet tonight....that is insane. It's more like 70 knots on the south shore, lol.

Holy crap....12z NAM, lol. Scooter better board up the windows and bring everyone to the basement.

12z RAP is pretty insane for SE MA. Like 50 knots sustained at about 200 feet above the sfc....and 75 knots at 925.

“So who are you? You said you're headed back to New England and can help me?” ”Sure, I’m the 3 time world champion accordion player and I can give you a lift.”

He’s from Florida...maybe he’s pulling a DIT where if he can’t get snow, nobody can, lol.

Lol, 80-85 knots at 925 on the south shore.

November starts seasonably cool, but then perhaps a moderating period before another cold pattern sets in? Weeklies/ensembles show this pretty good today. You can see the cold delivery in the first week of the month but then it moderates into a milder pattern by late in the ensemble run: It's out in clown range, but hope the end of the weeklies are correct for late Nov/early Dec....that pattern would likely produce a lot of cold and snow threats.

If you had data for 2007-2008 there is a good chance that would be snowier than the other ones. That was a monster winter.

In the mod/stronger cases, it's usually hard to get a +PNA in a La Nina. We actually managed it for the first 2 months of last winter despite Nina being moderate....but then again, those SSTAs in the N PAC looked more like an El Nino. But even popping a +PNA for like 1 month during a La Nina can be pretty helpful....Jan 2011 and Jan 2009 are both +PNA months within a sea of otherwise -PNA pattern and they really gave the eastern US a sustained wintry period. Jan 2011's +PNA was well-timed too as it really popped big once the 1/12/11 storm reversed the big NAO block....so instead of a relaxation that comes with the NAO going more neutral/positive, we stayed cold and snowy with the +PNA ridge out west.

Yeah, I mean, if you have a -3 SD block in the Davis Strait, then that will definitely overwhelm typical Nina SE ridge climo for sure.