ORH_wxman

Fell under 10" here....prob some time yesterday (I actually haven't touched the snow stick in days...starting to tilt a little, lol). You can see the pack receding pretty good from the edge of the driveway now.....though the very front of my house which stays shaded is melting out a lot slow. These bushes are just becoming visible, lol. Of course, as I posted yesterday, I've fallen behind winter hill now. I was pretty even with them for a lot of the month given that I did as well as them during the 2/1 event and even better than them during the 2/7 and 2/19 events. But 2/22 was the turning point...they got an inch of slop as a bit of barrier and then the sneaky torch days that followed hit harder here than there. This was winter hill last night...they had a solid foot left up there at least, maybe more in the shadier spots:

GGEM shows you how it could happen. I think I mentioned yesterday how that trough would need to dig for oil a bit and this run does that. I agree with Tip on being skeptical of such a solution aside form just the lead time...you have to overcome some gradient in the flow. But that ridge out west does get very amplified which helps it overcome other forces and it pinches off into a rex block.

That snow coverage map really shows the lingering effects of the 2/1 event well in eastern MA.

If there was one spot I had to pick to place an observer where we don't have one in the east, it would probably be Kibby Mountain Maine. They probably get walloped with upslope and likely benefit from a lot of the coastal storms. They are nestled in basically a horseshoe-shaped area of very high elevation with a lot of flat topography off to their W and NW. The snow up there is legendary for snow mobilers who bother to make the trek as dryslot often mentions.

We used to get 30 to 1 or even 40 to 1 blower powder on LES all the time back when I went to school out in ITH. The ratio does come down a bit in heavier events simply due to the settling that happens naturally. Hard to go 40 to 1 on 20 inches of snow.

Yes, it basically takes the GEFS mean for that frame and tries to match it to the closest H5 pattern historically. They have two different days we can choose for the analog composite...D8 and D11. (the other days on the left hand menu do not produce analog composites) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php

That's from the GEFS I'd assume. They have two analog options there....one from the GEFS and another from the GEPS (GGEM ensembles).....too bad they don't have one from the EPS which would be more useful.

Doesn't BW still have it on weekends? I could have sworn I saw them advertising night skiing when I was up there a few winters ago, but it was for weekends. Cranmore has night skiing too on Saturdays unless they changed it. Shawnee is probably the best one semi-close to him...it's like an hour drive but they stay open until 9pm.

Same here....this morning it was just a pure glacier and I didn't sink in at all.

EPS shows some mild potential there....it would be a late bloomer probably but if you get something deepening quick enough on that trough diving in, then you could get a surprise there.

Getting pretty late down south....we're def not done with snow in interior New England (and prob not the coast either), but the climo temps are rapidly warming.

Still a pretty impressive pack on winter hill. I was running neck and neck with them for most of February but they’ve pulled ahead.

Yeah we're rarely done by 3/15. Really the last year we were was probably 2014 (the Cape wasn't, lol)....I guess 2017 for closer to the coast was done after the 3/14 storm, but 3/31-4/1 got the interior.

The ridge out west has been becoming more impressive, so if you can get that trough to dig for oil a little bit, you can pop something along the frontal boundary. That northern stream injection could produce a flashover event....obviously we need to see things continue to trend. 7 days out, etc etc....

Not for next weekend, but beyond that it looks pretty torchy on GEFS.

That's a tight squeeze on the 3/6 potential as modeled....could obviously change though. But right now nothing looks exciting.

3/8/05. We lost a massive tree during that on winter hill. Blown right over. It wasnt long after it changed to snow when that happened. My cruddy anemometer back then recorded like 63mph or something and it wasn’t even 10m. Prob more like 3m. I think the airport recorded something similar but I bet 10m up on our hill would have been 70+. We went from like 40 to 26 in a couple hours I think. True flash freeze event.

2/1 was brutal within 5-10 miles of the coast. Taken to the woodshed by Ray’s beast of a man. That event is what salvaged this winter from pretty subpar to respectable here and set the table for a durable snow pack. Basically gonna run the table for the month of Feb with a double digit snow pack here...maybe we barely slip under that this weekend. We’ll see. But it changes the feel of winter when you spend that long with deep pack. 16-17” of absolute paste from that 2/1 storm. Well actually, it was more like 6” of powder and then 10”+ of paste on top of it, lol. Just massive qpf dump.

The entire tenure of the season would have been different if we just eliminated the grinch storm or turned it into a 40F FROPA with a few showers. Most of the deep pack form pre-Xmas would have been around during the doldrums in January. So that stretch would have merely been a boring 4 week pause with a few “refresher” C-2” events rather than the torture of watching a few coatings melt back to brown grass.

Yeah we had a good stretch even in Feb/Mar...esp late Feb into mid-March. We had like 30” during that 3 week stretch.

It was a pretty weak signal on the ensembles, so not overly optimistic on that one even accounting for the lead time. But you always have to watch out in March for stuff that doesn't show up right away. Model accuracy starts to decrease as wavelengths shorten.

It does....there may be some chances after 3/2ish, but nothing popping out at the moment. Sometimes we see that in March though....it looks quiet, and then boom, it shows up inside of 4-5 days.

This explains the dichotomy between the YTD temperature departures and the narrative that it hasn't been that mild. No signature torches or cutters have happened. It's just been the lack of arctic cold shots to offset these stale airmasses.

One more off topic nitpick on Ray's post....Canseco was already on the '95 division winning team (and played great in the regular season). Who could forget the absolute wrath he and Mo Vaughn took for going 0-for-the-series against Cleveland in the playoffs.

Yes.