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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Trading 1989 for 2015 alone adds almost a full degree to the 30 year average for December in ORH.
  2. ORH_wxman
    BOS November 1961-1990: 45.3 BOS November 1991-2020: 44.7 (!!!) ORH November 1961-1990: 39.4 ORH November 1991-2020: 40.2 BOS December 1961-1990: 33.6 BOS December 1991-2020: 35.7 ORH December 1961-1990: 27.4 ORH December 1991-2020: 30.5 ORH really got nuked in December..BOS did too but not as much....losing 1989 and gaining 2015 is a big one though.
  3. ORH_wxman
    It'll definitely be less at non-radiator spots. Radiational cooling has been the biggest casualty of CC.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yes Hudson Bay is lagging badly....the arctic ocean though and adjacent seas are way ahead of recent years. Hudson Bay had no ice at this point in 2016, 2012, 2010, 2006, and 2003 too, so while rare, it isn't unheard of.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Those of us along the pike are always conflicted...
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS was a bit paltry on the Sunday/Monday system last night. Would like to see it come back on board a bit more. But there’s still plenty of time.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Haven't fired up the heated sidewalks yet? My monitor is saved from a high-impact event for another day.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Chukchi sea froze over faster than any year since after the 2012 monster melt. The difference is 2021 also has refrozen on the Atlantic side very fast unlike that 2012 autumn. That's why we're more like the early 2000s right now for extent
  9. ORH_wxman
    You realize that it's like 5-6 days out still, right? This isn't a 3 day lead time right now. It's fine to point out the possibility (hell, I linked to my post 4 days ago pointing out the favorability of the pattern for Nov 28-30), but "locking" it in is ridiculous.
  10. ORH_wxman
    He cant help himself....man, even 2014 Kevin wasn't this bipolar.
  11. ORH_wxman
    That is interesting....KBOS went to crap in the spring too after last winter. You can see when they fixed the REALLY bad issues back in spring of 2020, but then the step down to crappy (but not quite as bad as before) in spring 2021 and now getting back to normal in fall 2021
  12. ORH_wxman
    EPS basically cancelled it too...maybe a brief torch around D10.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Actually pretty decent mean for 6 days out...has measurable snowfall for most of the area.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Not the final solution of course....that was close to something a lot better. Verbatim though, prob just some light snow mostly S of pike on that run for Sunday.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro is going to have snow here on Sunday...possibly into Monday too...backside energy trying to dive in so we'll see if it goes to town, but even the current solution has light snow falling on Sunday in SNE.
  16. ORH_wxman
    PRob going to be getting good upslope snows on Friday too...even over at BW. This looks like a pretty robust event because there's a lot of deeper level synoptic moisture associated with it.
  17. ORH_wxman
    GEFS actually cancels any torch at all....just reloads the cold before the mild air ever has a chance to make it into New England.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Ukie with a little nuke next Monday. Canadian trying too....GFS not interested.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we know the caveats. Guidance has been volatile so nothing is locked.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole.
  21. ORH_wxman
    I’d be surprised if we don’t at least get the “first flakes” monkey off our back for many of the areas who haven’t seen them yet. Prob a lot of popcorn snow showers around with that upper level cold pool even if we don’t get a real storm.
  22. ORH_wxman
    EPS looked really solid last night. We’ll take this for sure....
  23. ORH_wxman
    May have to watch for a follow-up clipper if that Sunday/Monday system gets crunched offshore. The cold definitely has been getting prolonged on guidance. Seems like we may only torch for a brief time now...hopefully that holds.
  24. ORH_wxman
    The anomalies up there were incredible that winter. That had to be like a minus 3-sigma event.
  25. ORH_wxman
    This is the same "system" from the post I made several days ago....interesting that it has reappeared recently (GGEM has it too but just a day earlier).
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