ORH_wxman

GGEM digs this pretty far though. That’s still worth watching. Kind of surprised it didn’t spit out more

GFS hasn’t been playing ball with this system for a couple days now. It’s been the furthest north with that shortwave and this run is no different.

RGEM was digging pretty good but just couldn’t quite get conveyor system going in time. I agree with tip that some of these runs also ha e spacing interference. RGEM seemed that way...but it was still enough to drop a couple inches in eastern areas and then it croaked downeast/midcoast Maine.

These are both tonight’s event. Not Nov 28-29

If it comes back he will have gone from no snow through Xmas, to 4-8”, to just flurries and then back to a hit again in a span of 3 days.... If we’re ever running a forecasting clinic, we could put that 3 day set of posts together as a perfect example of what NOT to do. It will be like those cheesy videos we used to have to watch in school in health class or something where they show some dumb kids deciding to drink or do drugs but the acting is horrible. Instead we’ll just use Kevin’s posts in place of the horrible actor.

Enjoy it because it’s all down hill from here.

Yeah that’s the key. Getting that northern stream to send the vort to our south while going neutral tilt before it reaches us.

NAM gone wild.

NAM improved from 18z too. Still escaping a bit but that was pretty nice looking with the northern stream shortwave track.

It’s significantly south imho. It’s enough to matter anyway. Here’s 18z on top and 12z at the bottom at the same time:

Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal.

18z euro coming back now a bit. That’s a pretty decent look for SNE. Prob a nice advisory stripe of snow. Maybe even low end warning lollis for interior E Ma?

18z NAM looks like kaka now too. Gonna need some reversal of the trend at 00z tonight. We’re not burying that northern stream as much on today’s runs.

18z NAM gone wild for tomorrow night. That’s prob like 3-5” for Ray, lol. 1-3” for much of the rest of E/C MA

Still looks like Ka-ka in the d12-15 range but it’s actually trying to balloon the Aleutian ridge again at the very end, so maybe this will be fleeting or get seriously muted like the early December signal did...that’s the hope anyway.

OP euro was folding over the WPO ridge into a little EPO block north of AK in clown range...we’ll have to see if that is something that gains traction because it would change the outlook for the second week of December.

The key is that northern stream shortwave. On these lighter solutions it’s coming in flatter and not digging. The bigger solutions were closing that sucker off well south into NJ and S of LI. Now it’s kind of crossing overhead...it still produces a period of light snow because of some good divergence aloft just ahead of the PVA, but you’re not getting an organized conveyor system going.

That include tomorrow night.

Euro is fairly paltry....prob like C-2” type event for SNE.

Euro trying to throw a bone too. Maybe a coating to an inch.

I think for ORH the only ones I can think of are 1898 and 1971 off the top of my head. Maybe I missed one. There’s plenty of 6-10” type storms in there but 12+ is truly rare that early.

You and powderfreak should have a GGEM party sometime. Reminisce about how much snow you would average if the GGEM was actually accurate.

Ukie is a whiff again. Playing to its extreme bias....I think it had like 12-18” here two runs in a row and then the next two runs were both whiffs...lol.

Yeah I thought it was solid advisory look for the metrowest region and up into Rays hood.

Pretty good chance of that up there. You’re going to get warning snows from this event and the Sunday/Monday event may be a little too far south and weak to give those amounts there.