ORH_wxman

RAP ftw yesterday. Kept showing that.

Kind of annoying that two of our best looking storms happened with marginal temps (12/5 was the other).

Radar looks promising for MA and S nH

4” on winter hill so far.

Impressive radar in this storm

Temp has risen here to 36.5F. We had R/S mix at 4am. Nada now. The mesos did actually hint at this overnight and then they crash things around 7am. So I guess we’ll see. I’m headed to winter hill I’m a while so we’ll see where the lines are.

Woke up and checked outside and we have flakes mixing in here in Holliston. Temp 34F. Gonna be up at winter hill later. Radar looks quite promising as there’s some crazy stuff developing just north of the dryslot

Yeah I'm thinking a lot of ORH county above 600-700 feet is going to get annihilated. We'll see about a little bit lower, but the higher terrain is looking pretty favorable right now based on how quickly things are cooling. Even these hi res models like the 3km NAM and RAP were 2-3F warmer at 01z than what I'm seeing right now. Hard to say how well this translates ahead a few hours, but I don't think it's going to hurt...it can only help.

Lots of 33s showing up in Gardner/Ashburnham. They must be at or nearly all snow there now.

Bodies not seen again until Memorial day...just completely buried

Only got a chance to look briefly earlier but it looked similar to 12z...might have taken a slightly wider turn before tucking back in.

Yes, a lot of it for about 20-30 min. Don't hear much now though. Just occasional pellet now against the window.

We have a lot of sleet pellets outside mixing in right now

21z RPM ran from my computer

21z HRRR was sick too. It was better for the 495 region though than the RAP which was more marginal there.

It’s possible it flips that early but my guess is a bit later. If it flips by midnight there then you will get 6”+ probably.

HRRR and RAP have been ridiculous for like 8-10 runs in a row. I'm not biting fully on them because we know their issues beyond 6 hours, but it's something to watch considering that some of the real models have shown these types of solutions at various times. There could be a 6 hour window of very heavy snow.

I'll take the over on "less than an inch" in ORH

Yeah if you are in the interior coastal plain of MA, that run won't get it done. It's going to be hard to get much though on the CP...you prob need everything to go right. Once you get to 495 where there's at least several hundred feet of elevation there would be a better chance. But this is probably mostly an ORH hills storm in terms of SNE snowfall.

The usual spots get crushed this run like pretty much every other run....ORH county to Monads/S VT/N Berks.

Yeah look at the midlevels compared to other runs...they are all elongated and not as organized.

18z NAM is kind of a disorganized mess.

Scooter trying to infect the in-house RPM to give him more snow on the 18z run

Yes, that was actually 2009...I think 10/18/09. There was this crazy UVV max that dumped like 3" in Foxborough in a 2 hour span. In ORH, I had about 2" over the course of 6 hours....never had the rates that Foxborough had, but we had enough elevation to slowly accumulate. Agreed that this one has a colder profile...at least aloft. The question is how much UVV do we get. Seems to be a lot of disagreement this close in for how strong the cross-hair sig is for the 495 belt....a GFS-esque scenario doesn't give much, but some of these other runs do cross-hair us for several hours which could force a 32F 1/4 mile parachute party for 4-6 hours....and we know things can stack up quickly at those rates. Such a huge difference between that and 34-35F wet noodles at 1-1.5 mile vis.

Yeah even the "boring" scenarios they get 15-16"....there's upside of like 2 feet.