ORH_wxman

12z HRRR is pretty awesome looking tomorrow morning.

Prob get some decent convection right near the edge of the dryslot.

Yeah the 06z run looks a lot more favorable for snows over 128-495 than the 00z run did.

Yeah I thought it might paste 128 with like 12-15" based on everything I saw in the midlevels and QPF fields. That is still ridiuclous though for 4/16.

Jackpot might be Monads or N ORH county above 1000 feet. You can prob find a parking spot at 1300-1500 feet in New Ipswich and get smoked.

RPM trying to come around but not quite there yet. Gets ORH county though.

Ray ripping RA+ at 40F while Holliston is parachuting a foot of snow at 32F?

Ginxy needs to post the clown map of that one just to save for the archives

That is just a ridiculous solution. The rate of deepening on the midlevels is insane. It's like a cross between 12/9/05 and May 1977.

Oh my god....I just saw the 06z Euro. That is a total grid collapser across a large swath of MA/RI/E CT

Yes. My worry is actually we get the initial band of precip around 00z to 09z late Thursday/early Friday and then it shuts off because the main stuff is offshore and then it backs in from the east but it does so up north because it whiffs us with the wide turn. The initial dryslot is going to punch in from the southwest and then it will try and stall as the precip starts moving in from the east with the upper low closing off south of us. But if that happens too late, then you miss out on the goodies. That’s why I was telling Kevin yesterday that I was worried about slotting down in CT and not wanting to trade too much latitude.

RGEM didn’t move too much. It tickled SE but not enough for a big dog solution over most of SNE. It is still an impressive solution for ORH county up into S VT and Monads.

Yeah no doubt. If that same storm happened 12 hours difference, it prob dumps 20-30% more snow due to better ratios. But it’s still pound town even during the day on a NAM setup. And 1987 shows that when you get the omega, it doesn’t matter that much when it happens.

I’ve mentioned this before but the bulk of April 28-29, 1987 was between noon and 6pm. Peak heating time. ORH still had 17” and like 8-12” all through BOS suburbs.

That’s where Scooter should be looking this run...his grid will be collapsed for weeks if that happened.

The 3km is a piece of work too this run.

There’s actually several SREF members that look similar to the NAM. There was a notable shift SE on the 21z run.

A Blue Hill birch bender.

LOL it might even crush BOS itself midday Friday this run. Gonna have to save this run.

Wow that hammers E MA even (at least BOS suburbs) Friday morning.

NAM is coming in a solid tick SE. we’ll see what it does in the next panel or two.

I just fired up a thread before the 00z runs. We know at least some people in this forum will get hit hard so it’s time to have a thread for it.

Time to fire up this thread before the 00z suite as we’re now close enough that it’s going to happen for at least part of this forum. Mitch in S VT as well as central greens over the monadnocks and at least northern Berkshires are locked in for significant snow. Also western Maine over to white mountains are looking very good for significant snows. Furthern north could get in on it too depending on trends and interior SNE from ORH to N CT elevations need to watch closely as well. This storm bombs out quickly to our southeast. You can see the deep layer easterly flow that will accompany this system:

Definitely can’t count them out. I’m a little more worried about slotting issues above 800mb down in CT outside of Litchfield county but even that said, they could still pick up a few inches. If we keep this just a tick SE then it’s game-on for bigger amounts there.

Yeah they are locked in. The biggest question mark in SNE right now is near ORH up to near hubbdave. Very high stakes there in that zone. I could honestly see that swath getting double digits or a sloppy inch. Both are totally plausible. I’m leaning more toward the lower end at the moment but it won’t take much to change that. I’d prob feel pretty good N or NW of FIT in Ashburnham or Winchendon/Gardner. Even hubbdave a little further south I’d be starting to feel more confident in at least advisory snow if not warning.