ORH_wxman

21z HRRR was sick too. It was better for the 495 region though than the RAP which was more marginal there.

It’s possible it flips that early but my guess is a bit later. If it flips by midnight there then you will get 6”+ probably.

HRRR and RAP have been ridiculous for like 8-10 runs in a row. I'm not biting fully on them because we know their issues beyond 6 hours, but it's something to watch considering that some of the real models have shown these types of solutions at various times. There could be a 6 hour window of very heavy snow.

I'll take the over on "less than an inch" in ORH

Yeah if you are in the interior coastal plain of MA, that run won't get it done. It's going to be hard to get much though on the CP...you prob need everything to go right. Once you get to 495 where there's at least several hundred feet of elevation there would be a better chance. But this is probably mostly an ORH hills storm in terms of SNE snowfall.

The usual spots get crushed this run like pretty much every other run....ORH county to Monads/S VT/N Berks.

Yeah look at the midlevels compared to other runs...they are all elongated and not as organized.

18z NAM is kind of a disorganized mess.

Scooter trying to infect the in-house RPM to give him more snow on the 18z run

Yes, that was actually 2009...I think 10/18/09. There was this crazy UVV max that dumped like 3" in Foxborough in a 2 hour span. In ORH, I had about 2" over the course of 6 hours....never had the rates that Foxborough had, but we had enough elevation to slowly accumulate. Agreed that this one has a colder profile...at least aloft. The question is how much UVV do we get. Seems to be a lot of disagreement this close in for how strong the cross-hair sig is for the 495 belt....a GFS-esque scenario doesn't give much, but some of these other runs do cross-hair us for several hours which could force a 32F 1/4 mile parachute party for 4-6 hours....and we know things can stack up quickly at those rates. Such a huge difference between that and 34-35F wet noodles at 1-1.5 mile vis.

Yeah even the "boring" scenarios they get 15-16"....there's upside of like 2 feet.

I'm kind of worried about power outages in Holliston if we get like 4-6" of slush on everything. I could see a scenario where it pounds 33-34F paste for several hours and it's 37F catpaws for several hours on each side of the good lift....the weight on the trees and lines would be horrible. Also possible we don't get much of anything.

I'm likely going to be drinking scorpion bowls on winter hill. Should be interesting there.

We will have a good idea of how things are progressing by about midnight or 1am. If we are seeing a place like ORH flipped before midight, then it could be pretty prolific there. That's assuming that we don't get a low that drives back into your fanny and dryslots 2/3rds of SNE too....but I'm doubting those solutions at the moment as I watch each run of the RAP/HRRR.

Yes, we wouldn't be sweating these wiggles when the column is 8C to 10C colder in mid February. But in mid-April, they matter.

The key is how far west it eventually makes before looping back SE...so we see it eventually make it to RI after crossing the western Cape and then it loops back to ACK....if the peak western advance is, say, PYM or GHG instead, then that matters a lot for that 495 belt.

It's not great for inside of 495...tries to wrap in some warm air at 925. It's a crusher though for west of there.

Eventually, but it makes it there via Cape Cod...that matters versus doing it via like EWB.

Euro is west of 06z, but still slinghsots the low over CHH and Cape Cod Bay.

Yeah I don't expect a repeat, that was too crazy. But the key for me is seeing if this low slingshots over the Cape versus like EWB to PVD.

There's some similarities with the marginal aspect of the temps but the evolution is different and frankly, the profile looks colder than that one...at least on these dynamic solutions they do. But we obviously have the time of year working against us near the surface where it is felt the most.

You mean 12/5? That was the storm that had big snow in ORH but pretty meh inside of 495 because it was barely too warm.

The locks are Berkshires/S VT/Monadnocks and maybe extreme NW Litchfield hills in CT?. Also hard for me to see how a place like N ORH county at elevation doesn't get whacked....I suppose the GFS could score the coup and it's a sloppy 2". But most other guidance has warning snowfall there. The tougher spots are adjacent S ORH county into N CT/NW RI and then the 495 belt. Those areas could legitimately be 6-10" or almost nothing.

Snow for Scooter while Ray is raining?

That's prob low for your 'hood.