ORH_wxman

Yeah I don't hate where it is right now. It's pretty close to a much better system.

I don't hate this look though....that could end up pretty good if it can invigorate the system before it escapes too far east

Pretty weak sauce from Euro...it's cold but not all that prolific. It tries to get going late, but not quite enough. I do like how that vorticity is a little more concentrated at 84h....that's what could help pop this thing before it pulls off to the east.

Your area up to Sunday River has done ok. Tamarack further to the northeast has been pretty brutal relative to average.

Yeah most of my long duration events like Feb 7-9, 2015 or March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 1-3, 2019 or Feb 8-11, 1994 or Jan 2-4, 1996 are paltry totals.

Up to 37 here...prob will spike low/mid 40s at FROPA.

BOS with a NW wind...must be the mesolow trying to protrude northeast offshore of E MA.

Actually a lot of similarities with the current model guidance. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0103.php

I was pretty heavily invested in the first Jan '96 storm....the blizzard up here only came to be a big threat in the final 36 hours. Before that they kept saying it might make it to NYC and then whiff up here. So I remember the Jan 2-4, 1996 event really well. It started on 1/2/96 afternoon ad we got like 7-8" from that firstpulse....then we actually had a break/lull for a good chunk of the afternoon/evening of Jan 3rd where we maybe got another 1-2 inches over 8 hours before it ramped up again late that night into predawn Jan 4th....it ripped another 4-5 inches.

Almost comes in 2 pulses...the initial dying WAA band and then it tries to get more of a CCB going. Jan 2-4, 1996 was like this.

Maybe with FROPA....but Kevin was worried about 50+ rain/dews wiping out his pack.

And? One of the unlucky few...it will likely drop there pretty quickly. Xmas 2020 is still an awful analog.

We tried to tell you....

That was never even a consideration. It was just incoherent ramblings from unhinged-in-Tolland.

Feb 2003, Jan 1978, and Feb 1958 on that list were Miller As.

Can see it well on the mesomap...I'm stuck right in it at 33F.

Interesting that it is colder well to the east here. Still rotting just under 33F.

32.5 and RA. Thought it might be a degree or two warmer by now. Still pretty icy out there but you can tell it’s starting to melt now.

Everything encased in ice. Temp is rising rapidly though. 31.5F now. Should be above freezing within an hour or so.

Good trends overnight. If we’re getting more ambitious, I’d like to see some more trending today of midlevel centers trying to organize to the south. That would prolong and enhance the snowfall. As it stands now, it looks like a solid moderate event but it’s not far from something more significant.

GGEM is all snow for at least north of MA/CT/RI border...it does flip south of there to sleet but it’s near the end. Pretty impressive runs tonight. The upper air has improved quite a bit on the 00z suite. It opens up possibilities of something better than a mere moderate event.

V16 is all snow too. Except maybe the Cape/Islands.

Still 27.3F here but that is up about a half degree from the low point about 90 min ago. Im guessing we will be a tick or two above freezing by 12z. Everything is a thin sheet of ice outside though.

A little more AK ridging along with some Greenland riding poking back from Scandinavia keeps the heights lower over Central/eastern Canada and at times into NE. SE ridge tries to battle but we’d prob win a lot of those in that setup. EPS a bit more tenuous...esp late in the run. This is talking post-day 9ish for peeps reading without seeing the ensembles.

Yep, mixing out to 42/24 is way different than raining at that same temp. So in terms of snow melt, that matters.