ORH_wxman

Yeah, that may happen at FROPA mix-out but I don’t think the steady precip will be sniffing 40F over the interior...esp that far north. The high temp tomorrow is kind of a trivial statistic....take ORH for example, if it’s like 31-34F all day long and then it mixes out to 42F for an hour or two when the cold front hits, does that matter in terms of the sensible wx? No, not really. If that 42F was happening for hours during the bulk of the precip, then it would be a big difference.

BVY and BED are 28F. It’s def a good northerly drain going right now, just think Logan is running a tick cold. You’d expect them to be about a degree warmer than those two or the same at the very least , not a degree colder.

Yeah I’m skeptical they are colder than I am right now. 27.4 here.

We basically have sheet drizzle falling here but it’s freezing on everything right now.

Down to 27.5F here. Everything iced over now including the driveway. Big change from early afternoon.

Yeah I know down south made it that warm, but i meant around 495 belt to ORH when I said “here”. Probably should’ve specified.

The more tomorrow’s system wraps up, the lower the heights are behind it which helps keep the follow-up system further south and east. Obviously there are other factors like the shortwave itself for 2/18-19, but all else equal, lower heights behind tomorrow’s system will trend 2/18-19 colder.

Yeah that 36F reading was bogus. Nobody was that warm around here.

Even in the 12/2008 event in ORH, I had trouble accreting during the day on 12/11/08...we were icing up on trees and stuff but my car windshield and even the grass was kind of meh until dark. Obviously that was marginal temps, but even near the winter solstice, the time of day made a difference.

Interesting...the ZR is now starting to glaze the deck whereas a couple hours ago it was just wet. We’ve dropped a degree or so since then and also lost peak insulation. That was enough to make the difference.

We’ve dropped a degree in the past hour or so. Down below 29F now. Freezing drizzle for the past 30-45 min.

2/22 still showing up on euro/eps. Get that one to dig just a little more and it would prob be a nice miller B Tip-NJ model storm.

Noticed some new small icicles hanging off the step ladder outside from the recent round of ZR. Funny, because the part of the deck that had been cleared was just wet. Temp is hovering just below 30F but peak insolation combined with the slightly darker color of the stained wood didn’t allow freezing there but the silver metal step ladder was iced over.

Definitely a much colder look on Euro than yesterday. Maybe we can grab a nice little fronto band for a time.

They are assuming this one will trend the same way as 2/16 did. Not sure the meteorological reasoning, but that’s been posted a few times already.

2nd best scoring model.

Had a mix of sleet and ZR earlier. I think this current batch is straight ZR though it’s pretty marginal given time of day and temp. Temp is 30F.

We’re actually getting some pellets here mixed with ZR with this little batch of precip moving through.

The grinch storm had no CAD at all. It was literally southerly flow at the surface hundreds of miles into Quebec. It was ridiculous. Like maybe Jan ‘96 rivals or exceeds it in my own memory...not much else. 1/31/13 was pretty impressive too but prob not quite on par....12/17/00 as well. This is a dime a dozen CAD event we see in winter with a “cutter”. Primary dies in NY state.l with strong CAD sig over most of interior New England where the warmest temps occur when the cold front passes and briefly mixes out the warm layer.

Yeah it’s not that far from trying to be all snow synoptically. My guess is we still taint, but if we get a big thump first, I’m fine with some pellets/FZDZ to finish in the slot. I just don’t want one of these 2-4” deals followed by prolonged heavy IP/ZR and 35F rain before ending. Those are an abomination to clean up.

This shows you the true level of psychological damage the 2020 grinch storm caused. Now even a CAD storm is going to wipe out a deep pack...somehow in a window of like 6-8 hours.

V16 went colder/E as well.

You can toss 50s inland. SE CT to SE MA might get them but not 495 to 84.

Current undisturbed pack depth...we’ll see how much is lost in 30 hours.

EPS looked nice too. Def showing a lot of redevelopment...it’s a good look for a heavy front end thump when you have that arctic high just north of CAR