ORH_wxman

What in the blue fook are you talking about? There is major CAD with this system even if it rains. You aren’t wiping out a double digit high-water content snowpack in central MA with ZR and then 34F rain. Even if it spiked to 45F for a few hours on FROPA that is basically meaningless. You’d have enough trouble wiping out that pack with a 12/25/20 redux.

It’s possible you go to rain for sure. But it would likely not happen until a lot of ZR first. Still a little skeptical of plain rain where you are though unless we’re talking some 33F drizzle in the dryslot. We’ll see if any trends stabilize or reverse by tomorrow.

I’d be surprised if we got any measurable snow at all before the ice (and then rain)...maybe a brief period of light snow tomorrow but even tomorrow looks more sleety if anything happens later in the day.

Absolutely. Not subtle...I’m already expecting a good chunk of liquid given these trends. But I’d rather get a few hours of raining at 37-39F in there to clear the ice dams at this point than have it be mostly 33F rain which is going to be largely useless.

The difference is that arctic airmass advects in. If you remember, that same airmass was supposed to advect in ahead of this storm back when it was an SNE snowstorm. Here’s Euro H5 from a few days ago....check out that northern stream way ahead of the southern shortwave Now that airmass advects in behind Tuesday’s storm. We’re not getting the brunt of it, but it should produce an antecedent airmass colder than the one for this storm.

At this point I almost want it to be more like 37-39F rain to try and melt off some of this ice damming on my roof. A few hours of ZR and then 34F rain will be mostly useless. The pack here is already decent water content, it’s going to be able to withstand a grenade launcher after this debacle. Better be worth it for Thursday...lol.

Not this time. Coming in furnace.

Yeah that was a pretty thumpy run on the front end.

Yeah that’s what it looks like. Midlevels are so torched that FROPA spikes you to near 40F and you get 50s in SE MA.

Take the watches/warnings down if the trend doesn’t stop at 00z. I’ve been pretty confident this would start going back SE at some point but that PV lobe is providing like zero resistance which is weird. You’d think at some point it would. I mean, as recently as 12z runs today, we saw a notable increase in the high presence up north...maybe something weird happened in the 18z runs that was kind of fake. If it’s real, we will see it again at 00z. Its also kind of amazing to remember that the GGEM utterly de-pantsed the GFS/Ukie/Euro all from about 4-4.5 days out. It was all alone for like 2 cycles on showing the partial phase.

You to dryslot has been a nightmare. Can’t catch a break there.

2008 broke Kevin a bit on icing events. I think he’d even admit it a little. That one stung...he was certain he’d get the big icing in that one and then when he was marginal ice and cold rain at 32.2F, he saw the ORH pics and died a little inside. Hes been trying to make up for it ever since, but you really can’t fully recover from that. It’s like missing out on free tickets to the Atlanta/Patriots SB as a Pats fan or game 7 2003 ALCS tickets as a Yankees fan because you had an in-laws dinner party to attend to and couldn’t get out of it. Sure, you try and make up for it later on but you truly just have to accept you whiffed a once in a generation type event.

I think even the interior would jump above freezing for brief time on the FROPA behind the system. But yeah, most of the precip damage occurs below freezing.

I’m tossing those types of runs until the evidence is very clear that’s what will happen. Seen this so many times where they try and track storms up Ginxy’s fanny only to see them go over the Cape or Islands once we’re almost on top of verification. Still gotta watch the mesolow potential too out ahead of it. Tomorrow’s junk could play a role.

18z NAM back to more of a furnace like the 06z run.

Yeah the hemispheric pattern is changing but it’s still pretty cold here through D10...we’ll see what happens beyond that but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a couple legit threats in the Feb 22-26 time range.

Looks like less QPF than VDay 2007...that was a massive QPF bomb. I think I had like 8-9 inches of 6 or 7 to 1 snow/sleet combo. I also think midlevels are likely to be a little warmer so more ZR than that one. We’ll see though. Can’t rule out a late SE trend aloft.

Yes. I agree anecdotally with dendrite’s NAM rule...when it’s ripping in warm layers around 750mb, usually best to take it seriously. When it has the max warm layer much lower around 850, then we toss if other models are colder. And yes on the surface. Model guidance is overwhelmingly too aggressive in these situations in warming up the lowest levels. Maybe if a track from ginxy to Scooter actually verifies, then I might push the warmth further inland, but otherwise, bring ‘em down.

It actually has light crap off and on starting predawn tomorrow morning and then the steady stuff moves in early Tuesday predawn.

Euro is pretty cold too for 2/18. At the moment that one looks a bit similar to Tuesday except the PV which was originally supposed to settle in ahead of Tuesday, actually settles in after Tuesday and we have an arctic antecedent airmass which would be better for starting as snow.

Yeah it’s definitely been running colder aloft along with the Ukie. Suggests a lot of sleet N of pike...esp near MA/NH border. Prob starts as a burst of snow even. My gut tells me to go with the warmer models aloft though.

Secondary may tickle east on some of these runs like the RGEM. Not sure I’m totally buying a low over scooters head. Something like NAM makes more sense.

Yeah and that matches with my old radial anecdotes....I always noticed around a quarter inch radial is when you’d start seeing the scattered power outages and then at around 1/3 or 3/8ths is when it would start to seem to “ramp up”.

Yeah the new criteria using flat ice makes the warnings a lot easier to verify...and makes the warning a lot less menacing than it used to be. It’s still a pretty good icing event, but the old ice storm warning was like “whoa, this is pretty serious”.