ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Looked better than 06z for here.
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06z NAM backed off. Now looks like most other guidance. Might be close to final solution. Hopefully one more bump north at 12z today.
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Yeah if the NAM and GFS slink back SE at 00z and converge on an 18z euro solution, then we’re screwed outside of south coast towns. But I’m starting to think this may keep coming NW for another couple cycles. I like that there is a little bit of southern stream energy infused to get this going. Anecdotally, I feel like those trend more amped a bit more frequently than not.
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Here’s the difference between 12z and 18z. You can see how another similar move would bring the fronto goods into SNE.
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For euro standards that was pretty good. Like a 40-50 mile shift. One more bump like that and it would look like some of the snowier guidance.
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Definitely still some red flags on this threat. Gonna need to see some solid improvement on euro to get confident. As much as the euro has not been it’s dominant self recently, it still is not typically going to be that far off inside 48h so hopefully we see a bump here soon.
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It’s starting to develop a wave. These things aren’t purely binary. Either way, looks like GFS held serve. Would like to see some bumps N at 00z from the rest of guidance.
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RGEM went SE vs 12z....still has it, but it's a bit lighter.
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SPC has marginal risks down there. NAM is by far the most robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely.
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I guess the one thing going for this is that the mesos will likely be the ones that catch this first...that's exactly what happened in other similar events in Jan 2013 and Feb 2016.
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3km coming in quite a bit more juiced too
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Yeah seriously...that's a solid advisory event for a good chunk of SNE. Mostly on its own though....hopefully a few more models catch on.
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1/24 ain't happening on this run either. As Bob said, energy gets buried in the southwest and will whiff on the northern stream phase. Wrong thread....but it will probably be in a good position for 1/25-26.
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Euro is like 1A to the GFS 1B these days....there isn't a canyon-esque gap between them like there used to be.
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Euro is starting to cave....1/22 will come in flatter this run. I'm hoping we can start seeing better solutions for 1/24 because 1/22 just doesn't have much room to maneuver.
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Yeah this one's on life support right now. Maybe not for the immediate south coast but for the rest of SNE.
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We might need to make an animated FINISH HIM! gif of when the guy is teetering off balance waiting for the fatality but with a Scooter face on him.
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Even if you could model the atmospheric dynamics perfectly, you'd still have to have a dense enough coverage of data to make the forecast flawless. As the ole saying goes, the output is only as good as the data being input.
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Ukie has nada. Actually trended worse from 00z.
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GGEM likes the 24th better too even though it's a narrow miss...it's closer than the 1/22 storm.
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It's a defense mechanism for many on here to whine. The GFS actually improved a little for 1/22 even though it still misses. Bit I do think the 1/24 threat has more room to work with even though there are still some minor spacing issues with the 1/22 wave ahead of it.
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Yeah I get the sentiment....but it seems like Thursday is starting to ramp up....but if we can phase in more SW energy, then it won't matter as much being a detriment to 1/22. We can get both that way....the western variables are more important.
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Biggest change on the NAM was phasing in more southwest energy into the shortwave around the MS river valley.
