ORH_wxman

This is what the 18z NAM did.

Out of the 12z suite, NAM was further SE with the upper low....GFS is a little north and the Euro is west of the GFS. They aren't huge differences but they matter for exactly where the bigger snows might fall.

Agreed. This is close to popping something pretty significant for even lower areas, but it just can't quite get its act together this run. If that ULL stretches out a little further SE before pinwheeling back then I think you'd get a better thermal conveyor going....it obviously needs to be watched closely.

Most people have an absolutely terrible time calculating risk in identifiable quantities as it relates to their behavior. 1 in 1,000 roughly sounds the same to most people as 1 in 100,000 but they are vastly different in reality. People will slowly change their behavior back to normal as more people are vaxxed and deaths keep ticking down. I agree there isn't going to be this mass media campaign to get back to normal like there was for mitigating behaviors. It will happen more organically. This thread is mostly useless bickering about how people perceive risk and then inevitably some politics gets injected. There's no reason to continue those back and forth squabbles. We tried allowing people to post about vaccine availability in here but it has just devolved.

And buried bodies.

There's definitely been a subtle shift back south on the 12z guidance....minus the Ukie which just jumped solidly north. Though the ukie was the southenr outlier on the 00z runs. Now it's prob farthest north. We'll see what the Euro does....it's been steadily crawling north every run since about 06z yesterday.

GFS is a monadnock to berkshires obliterator. Prob gets a good chunk of W CT too.

It would probably be a historic storm if everything was south/southeast about 100 miles.

Little nuke on the NAM...if we keep the trend of tightening up the circulation, then it would get pretty interesting again for interior SNE. There's a pretty decent 3-6 hour period on that run for like ORH back to W MA and W CT before the SGZ starts to dry out a bit.

Yeah it's going to need to trend back south to make it interesting in SNE outside of northern Berkshires. But this could just keep trending north. It's been a pretty hard trend since 12z yesterday.

06z Euro actually went north again....might put places like Bridgton ME over to Phineas in a good spot. Good firehose look up there on that run.

Certainly northern Berks....but close call there though for being out of the meat of it for further south looking at the midlevel stuff. We'll see though...could easily tickle back south.

Focus for snow on the overnight runs would be monadnocks to central/southern greens and maybe Berkshires. There could be some lighter snows at the end over a lot of SNE on that setup. The ULL has definitely trended north compared to yesterday which would shift the snow threat further north.

Nah, 2015-2016 was the big stinker up there. This year was a lot better than that year. This year just had an absurdly weak end to the year but at least most of the mid-winter months were pretty decent for skiers.

18z op Euro bumped solidly north. That would likely take most of SNE out of the snowfall threat outside of nuisance stuff and mainly high terrain...hard to say for sure since it only goes to 90h but that look would be better for CNE

I remember that one. We had about 4-5” of paste. Here’s last years thread.

Yeah it was already pounding over the far interior near ORH and westward. Another panel and it’s probably choking aggregates in metrowest BOS.

Yeah this would have to shift northward quite a bit to hit your 'hood hard. That block forces the ULL underneath as it approaches from the lakes. Though I wouldn't rule out snow up there beyond this threat, as the pattern continues to look pretty ripe for late season snow threats up north. A lot of troughiness over the east and cold intrusions.

Yeah it has the rapid deepening of the upper low as it slides by our longitude and that track is optimal down between 40 and 41N. We'll definitely need that if we want the good rates/dynamics to overcome the marginal temps. If we're nitpicking, maybe we could use a bit more of a defined high up in the CAR region, but even the current depiction has that higher pressure isobars nosing down to provide the drier air for evap cooling.

Yeah, even 2-3 weeks earlier would matter a lot I think.

I think most of interior SNE would get accumulating snow if it played out like that. Prob significant snows for at least the Catskills/Berkshires, NW CT and prob N ORH county/Monads.....the details would determine if bigger impact snows hit the rest of the interior. Those details won't become clearer for a couple more days. The ULL could trend north or south....or weaker or stronger.

12z EPS has a pretty impressive evolution.

Yeah prob late afternoon/early Thu evening that run it flips there.

This is a pretty impressive look. This ULL takes its time too.

Euro still quite interesting. It did trend a tick north with the ULL so that will be something to watch. That's quite the firehose though for a solid 18+ hours.