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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It’s actually ripping in this band. Less than half mile vis.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Pattern gets kind of slow and blocky…not really huge arctic blocking per say, but bowling ball season with pseudo blocks in Canada…Tip alluded to this the other day. But this is showing up pretty strong on all ensemble guidance is we head into the equinox and beyond during the final week of March. So while we prance in the tulips a couple times next week, there’s a reasonable chance we haven’t seen our last accumulating snow…esp for interior.
  3. ORH_wxman
    There will be another band of light snow later but the heavy stuff is done.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I mentioned that earlier too. Prob not very heavy but could be a steady light to occasionally moderate snow late afternoon into early evening.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah not impressed with radar down south. The changeover seems a bit faster than modeled but that is coming at the price of precip starting to shred quicker.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Mix line just about to ORH.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That’s a good sign. You might be able to pull a 6+ spot.
  8. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM looks super torchy and northwest. Hard to buy it though because it looks pretty bad down to the southwest. It has almost no snow it spots that are already flipping.
  9. ORH_wxman
    No there will be accumulations. Just not sure if it will be more than an inch or two. I guess we’ll just see how quickly it can flip.
  10. ORH_wxman
    NW CT and Berkshires are def gonna get hit really good. You can see it setting up really well for them. I wonder if near Danbury and Waterbury could be a sneaky good place. Esp areas above 500 feet. I wouldn’t be shocked to see solid advisory amounts there. Further southeast is a question mark.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we fight the dry air below 850. There could be a little burst close to 00z as the upper trough gets closer but otherwise I’m pretty meh on this for advisory snow or greater. I think there’s going to be a lot of 1-3” type amounts.
  12. ORH_wxman
    12z HRRR not impressed with SNE outside of Berkshires and NW CT.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Close call there. But I think hedging lower is the way to go on this one. Usually the west slopes of the Berkshires and NW CT are gonna clean up in a setup like this while out east the northwesterly flow starts drying out the atmosphere. So it becomes a race.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Prob would’ve been Dec 10, 2008
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yep. These are the events Kevin can get terrain enhancement on. He needs a westerly component or a southerly component where he is.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Kuchera (not posting 10 to 1 in this)
  17. ORH_wxman
    3km is actually snowier for SNE and more potent with the dynamics than 12z.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the dynamics look much better on that run....hopefully it plays out with stronger dynamics. Weak and strung out it not going to be as fun....even if it might get 1.5" of slush on the weak scenario versus 0.7" on the stronger scenario.
  19. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM going west a solid tick.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yes, and then a week later there was a marginal 8-10" storm for north of the pike....basically a front ender at 32-33F isothermal sounding. That was poorly forecasted.
  21. ORH_wxman
    There will be some good precip rates, but duration is an issue. This thing will be screaming northeast.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Around here I only really want to see about -5C or so which the top of the saturated layer achieves (at least on the western half of the sleet band)....there's so much salt nuclei in SNE sticking out into the ocean that the baseline numbers get skewed warmer for ice crystals. That said, my guess is the HRRR is too cold anyway, so it's prob a moot point.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Pivotal is probably too wide with the sleet ptype looking at the soundings. Like it's showing sleet where the entire column is colder than -2C but because it's not saturated in the DGZ, it shows up as sleet.
  24. ORH_wxman
    There was 1-2" in the interior on 3/3
  25. ORH_wxman
    For us, yes....out west though it's been a much bigger differences on some of these runs.
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