Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    90,911

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    PRetty weak sauce...but at least flakes on both Xmas and Xmas eve might be enough to grab an inch or two.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yes....I know. I think there are some maps out there that try to estimate accretion, but even those are "Wrong" because they focus on flat....when radial is what causes all the damage.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Good ol' Ukie....gives like a solid 2"...maybe 3" in spots for Xmas eve. "2nd best model"
  4. ORH_wxman
    We have models bringing rain into CNE for Xmas and then some that crunch it southwest and give Greenwich CT snow while Ray is smoking cirrus. Basically a clown show on guidance....but we kind of knew this was coming. I posted that map yesterday that showed all those ridiculous shortwaves offshore.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yes. They are always overdone. In addition, radial ice is what we care about...so even if you actually do get flat surface ice to accrete half an inch, it will be more like 2 tenths radial.
  6. ORH_wxman
    GGEM crunches 12/25 south....does get some light snow into CT and W MA.....it has Xmas eve but pretty weak....maybe an inch or so in some spots amidst widespread coatings.
  7. ORH_wxman
    There;s another one for 12/28-29 too.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I'm really surprised it didn't show 12-18" again on a 5 day prog.
  9. ORH_wxman
    This is actually kind of fun looking at each run....I honestly have no idea how they will go. That's how volatile the pattern is right now. I feel like one these will work out....just don't know which one.
  10. ORH_wxman
    GFS still liking that little nuke for the 26th.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah he overplayed that one badly. Comes off as a really desperate troll attempt...didn't flow naturally at all. I mean, at least wait for a real model...maybe the GFS.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Models are going to be all over the place until more of this trainwreck out west is resolved. But at least there are several interesting shortwaves to track.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Guidance is all over the place with this weekend. Though for Xmas day itself we’ve seen some narrowing. Even euro gets some measurable snow into SNE now for Xmas.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah ORH hasn’t reported snow depth since the 1994-1995 winter. By my records, ORH has had a white Xmas in the following years post-1950: 1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019 So that’s 42 out of 70 or 60%.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Oh Canada…nice little Xmas Eve burst and then Xmas Day again on the GGEM…not as prolific as the ICON but it’s several inches for a good chunk of SNE.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Look at the H5 map on Xmas Eve and Xmas. That is ridiculous looking. There’s like 6 clusters of energy…more like buckshot. Even that solution though gives a bit of front ender snow for Xmas…looks best west and it kind of fizzles a little bit as it heads east.
  17. ORH_wxman
    GFS actually crunches Xmas Eve south a bit. South of pike special.
  18. ORH_wxman
    We’re holding you to that.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Actually gets us both days. Xmas Eve and Xmas day. Rgem looked like a little bit of festivus on Xmas Eve too.
  20. ORH_wxman
    A few winters ago Alpine Meadows had over 800 inches.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Look at the difference in California at 84 or 90h on the 18z run compared to 12z....that is LOL. You don't typically see the Euro make jumps like that.
  22. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS was pretty nice for SNE on Xmas Eve. Nice stripe of 1-2”...prob some lollis to 3” in there with QPF approaching a quarter inch in spots...esp from NE CT over to SE MA. Would like to see Euro start getting on board though.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Leon? That's almost a Jan '94 look for early to mid January on the weeklies with the NAO going positive, but the PV settling down into Hudson Bay and a big AK ridge. Hopefully it has the right idea.
  24. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM not as amped as 12z for Wednesday.
  25. ORH_wxman
    If it does, that would likely bode well for late January and into February. I'm always a fan of bucking February La Nina climo.
×
×
  • Create New...