ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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The ensemble guidance being pretty far west still is a solid red flag for assuming a whiff SE.
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2nd best model!!!
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Even aloft on GFS this doesn't really scream wide right to me
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Yeah it's prob good right now...lol....considering where other guidance is. I don't see this whiffing.
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Yeah a whiff is the least likely IMHO. Almost all the ensemble spread is to the left of most OP tracks.
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The mean looks pretty close to ACK. But still pretty good spread at this point.
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I actually like where this one is right now. You have pretty much all non-GFS guidance with a significant storm and the OP euro is on the western side of the EPS envelope. The classic 70/30 or 80/20 compromise would be ideal. Too bad it’s not 3 days out instead of 4 though.
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With omega that high in the sounding that dendrite posted, you also get garbage snow growth. Prob putrid bullets and plates which sublimate much faster too when they are trying to overcome dry layers.
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Hallucinations are going to be epic tomorrow.
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Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different.
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Yeah it’s amazing how many people immediately canceled winter after that post. Although many of them already canceled in December so not sure why the need to do it again…
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Yeah it’s not even that bad of a look anyway, I just found the change funny. The ridge retrogrades back quickly into a pants tent pattern. But I’d obviously be cautious still.
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It’s prob a red flag in the sense that something super amped up the Hudson valley is pretty unlikely. EPS are pretty far west compared to other ensemble suites too. So while I’d weight the EPS the highest, I would still add a little bit of weight to the others.
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Lol EPS went right back to the low AK heights this run and then torches the country for several days before it reverts back to the good pattern.
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It’s kind of weird that most OP runs don’t really have a primary up there but several ensemble members do. I’m not super worried about it at this point though. I can tell people are losing their minds when we’re analyzing the EPS individual members this much at 5 days out when it will probably look vastly different in a couple cycles.
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Those are primary lows in NY state.
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There’s actually more spread on the EPS than the 06z run just eyeballing it.
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Euro solution would make many happy except far SE areas and far NW areas. Spreads the wealth decently.
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Ukie is an eastern special. But it does get most with at least advisory.
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Looks like GEM will be a huge hit.
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The RNA was always predicted, it just ended up a lot deeper than originally forecast. This one could fail too but it would probably take a larger model error because there’s more wiggle room when you have a western ridge.
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That’s barely even a low…lol. Thankfully it’s been an outlier.
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Don’t look at QPF on GFS. It’s way too far north based on the RH fields at 700 and 850
