ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,968 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Prob a modest tickle east...though it wouldn't surprise me if it basically held serve since it was already a little bit east.
-
Yeah I'm still thinking this comes back west some...they usually do when you have that nice consolidated vort energy near base of trough and when there's some sfc reflection chasing convection. We actually saw this somewhat in the 12/17/20 storm last winter. We're obviously dealing with an eastward trend this 12z cycle, but there's still plenty of cycles left.
-
GGEM is a bit crunched...kind of like GFS.
-
The western crowd had some good storms in the 1990s and early 2000s....they can wait another decade before the worm turns.
-
Yeah it is not digging as much as 06z was over the plains.
-
Yeah I was looking at H5 first on Reggie and was thinking that would be more tucked...it hammers SE MA pretty good, but my guess is that would be better further west than it actually shows.
-
That run looked pretty damned good for western SNE....they get some goodies on that.
-
I like how the vort is pretty consolidated at the base of the shortwave on this one....that makes it harder to lose this to the east.
-
Goes over ACK this run. That would be a crusher for a lot of SNE and prob into CNE.
-
Not a big surprise but the NAM won't come in as amped as 06z was looking at 48 hours.
-
Ensemble-based analogs are pretty tasty....Jan 2005, Jan 2009, Jan 2003, Jan 1994, Jan 1961 are all showing up as analogs as we get out into days 8-12. Hopefully that sticks. I agree with Scott that it looks like -PNA is trying to return near month-end, but we'll see. If a really good AK ridge gets established, then it might keep the PNA more near neutral late month and into early February which would be ideal.
-
Yeah the surface is kind of meh...not one of those systems where it's 7F at ORH when it starts, but that doesn't matter because it's plenty cold off the deck. Type of system where it might start near the coast around freezing but then it drops to like 27-28 as the storm gets cranking. Interior is prob mostly in the 20s.
-
Looks like a predawn to mid afternoon Friday deal.
-
Yeah it kind of takes a wide-ish turn and then bombs rapidly, so when that happens, you can actually get it pretty close and still stay snow...plus antecedent airmass is strong. You'd prob need a canal cutter to mix 95 in this setup.
-
This is coming back west at least somewhat IMHO. I don't know if it will be an actual hugger, but I'd favor something inside the BM.
-
Yeah but if you're pimping a benchmark track, why are you saying I-95 will mix? They aren't sniffing a mix with a BM track.
-
Flow gets pretty meridional.....I don't think it's going to be super dry.
-
Starting to tighten up a bit though still plenty of spread....you can see that cluster near the BM though.
-
Whats the best model now then?
-
I’m not really that worried about a whiff on this. It has that look of ripping some good bands pretty far west…it’s always possible it gets more sheared as we get closer but usually when you see the energy consolidated at the base of the trough like that, it doesn’t trend sheared/flat
-
It is. That’s prob a big solution for eastern areas.
-
This storm gets tightly wrapped on the stronger solutions so it would collapse the R/S line pretty close to the ML center. This happened in storms like 1/12/11 where the low tracked over the Cape but the R/S line wasn’t that far NW of the canal. I think the south shore had a monster paste job in that one.
-
Yeah EPS went back to pants tent pattern....you could see the OP run doing it to at the end of the run there around D10....and the EPS gets better and better beyond that as well.
-
Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.
