ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah here’s the tickles south again. The southern stream in this system is potent so the hallucinations are going to be epic.
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Wonder if we can get another 60 miles today on the models. My guess is this is the max tease level and now it starts slinking S again.
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Man, that’s gonna be painful watching the epic radar slide east when it’s nearing the south coast.
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Cape could def get clipped by the goods with one more tick NW on some of these solutions. Back in the interior we are toast barring another 2/5/16 trend. These systems are always ugly though on the northern edge of the QPF gradient. Tons of dry air and a stiff N or NNW wind vector. So you really need to be a solid 30 miles into the modeled precip shield to feel decent about getting anything.
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We need the northern stream to be weaker and sheared but it isn’t playing ball. That southern vort keeps strengthening but if the northern one does too then it’s prob not enough for us. Chris was talking about the competing forces there earlier and it’s a good way to put it.
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I’m not biting yet. Though I have one eye on it now. Hard to get such a big move close in but it happened in the 2/5/16 event.
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Jerry confirmed what I was going to respond with…yeah, it’s a 5 day mean vs a single point in time map. That last map was for hour 360 at the end of the run.
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Yeah Scott is right…that is the best EPS look we’ve had all winter and probably since 2018 if you love snow and deep cold going with it. I’m still being a little cautious given the struggles guidance has had…but it’s a good sign that the start of that pattern is now inside of D10.
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Fwiw, this is the very end of the EPS run. You can see the western ridge retrograding a bit but we also are forming a N ATL ridge with the PV on our side of the pole. It’s a very cold look.
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EPS still looks very cold going into mid-month.
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Yeah that’s great looking. Sucks that it’s 6 days out still. I’d be getting pretty pumped if we were 84-96 hours instead Anyways, here’s the individual plot members
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Yeah it’s further north anyways than other guidance. I’d toss it.
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All the QPF on the northern 25 miles of Monday's system is prob going to be Virga.
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That type of phased PNA/EPO ridge in the second image is a very cold pattern historically. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a very strong arctic outbreak at some point if that verifies.
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Here was last nights EPS…first map is 5 day mean between D5-D10 and the next one is days 11-15
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06z eps has a pretty big spread…not a tight cluster
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We traded with Seattle for 2-3 weeks. At least the EPS continues to improve. Looks even better than 12z did.
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Yeah I'd wait until we're inside 10 days. The good news though is that the western ridge starts building pretty quickly by D9
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Tip will like the lower heights in the SE later in the period....no Hadley cell geopotential medium compression for you....
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Here's 5-day mean D9-13
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Well if you think about we kind of traded our climate with them for the past 2-3 weeks. -
EPS looks pretty nice in the extended....that's the best it's looked in a while. Trended toward GEFS a bit. @CoastalWxwould definitely like that western ridge anomaly max sitting over Idaho/Montana. PV actually gets shoved into SE Canada. Probably a legit arctic outbreak if that look verified.
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EPS takes the system over SE MA...pretty decent spread in solutions so way too early to talk about whether the system is "lost" yet.
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GGEM actually scrapes the Cape now....lol
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It can be strong...it just depends where the shortwave amplifies. On the Euro, it doesn't amplify until further east...there's a bit more confluence.
