ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah if we're dividing into halves....I agree I just use ORH roughly as the midpoint (I think technically it's Rutland MA if you go by precise geography....and that's just 2 towns NW of ORH for those that don't know)...but if we divide into thirds with western/central/eastern....then I use 495 for the eastern boundary.
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There's probably going to be some really good arctic outbreaks too in this pattern. The phased PNA/EPO ridge is a classic arctic outbreak signal for our area. It tends to push the PV more toward eastern Canada.
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I kind of loosely consider it 495-eastward....but it's a subjective term.
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Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern.
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You can throw the 12z Ukie in there too.
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Ukie is actually pretty nice for E MA...BOS def would get warning criteria snowfall on that run.
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No doubt it is in peril...but it seems way too close a call to punt the idea at 48 hours. It would be too close a call to punt at 24 hours IMHO.
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I think 6-12 is still possible for eastern areas for sure.
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Yes true....though I definitely thought we'd be battling more of a hugger 2 days ago...just based on the position of the trough as it goes neutral/neg pretty decently far west. But the confluence up north has fought that off pretty good. Still, I think that fairly far west trough positioning and potent vortmax can work in our favor now as we get into the final 48 hours.
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Yeah i agree it looks like the "Worry east" crowd are right...but this is different from actually punting this event. There's nearly 2 days left and small changes can easily bring this pretty far west in terms of sensible wx....you have a VERY potent vortmax rounding the base of a well-placed shortwave. Some nuances in the downstream ridging and convective-robbing conveyors are preventing a major storm, but it's not hard to see how those nuances trend better.
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I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.
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Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?
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Yeah we're talking very minor changes in the end...it did make a late bid to tick west, but really not of much consequence. It still wants to follow the convection...we really need that vort to curl north and capture this thing....close to what some of the mesos are doing.
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Might be making up some ground at 39 hours....looks like the low is not hugging the convection as much this run....we'll see in next frame.
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12z GFS looks to be ticking slightly less amped than 6z through 30 hours.
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Was there anyone who was saying I-95 was definitely going to mix?
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There's isn't really very strong deformation in this setup...but there is definitely a banding signal for well northwest of the lower level reflection....so a fluff band in a separate stripe well northwest of the main jackpot area is likely IMHO. It won't be huge totals, but I wouldn't be shocked at one of those 6"+ deals inside the band where it drops 0.30" qpf.
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Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.
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It's definitely a smidge east with the best goods....but yeah we're parsing really tiny differences. It's definitely has had the lowest run to run variance of any model in the past 24 hours.
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There's definitely still more spread in guidance (and ensembles) than usual for 2 days out.
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3k def looks better than the 12k....though the 12z 3k did trend a little east of 06z, but not nearly as much as the 12k did.
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Yeah this run is not gonna get it done for a big event...this would be an advisory event for eastern areas I think.
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122z NAM looks like it will be more subdued than 06z....spacing between the two shortwaves is less through 24h.
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Put your obs for today in here https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56475-january-2022-obsdisco/page/60/#comments This thread should be for 1/7
