ORH_wxman
-
Posts
91,770 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
We are only talking about E MA now?
-
His statement wasn't false....12z guidance has definitely toned down a little bit.
-
Thje DGZ is super deep on a lot of these soundings, so I'm guessing that is where those ratios are coming from. I'm skeptical of huge ratios....but they will be over 10 to 1.
-
Yeah prob your area down 495 and over to 128....as the best H7 fronto hugs the coastline and the best banding will be a bit west of that.
-
If the low elongates too much, then it ends up robbing us of some WCB precip....that's why some of the solutions are more tame. But some guidance is grabbing the low quick enough and dragging that WCB back into the cold side and forming a monster CCB....even the GFS is able to partially do it this run which is why E MA gets annihilated.
-
I can't believe all the western peeps are worrying over the RGEM/NAM when it still gives E MA 2 feet.
-
It's not a big deal for eastern peeps....but I does limit some of the westward expanse of the heaviest precip.
-
Reggie definitely very elongated low
-
We already know a beast is coming....but there's a real difference that can occur in the magnitude if capture is delayed a bit.
-
Well it doesn't last....even on this NAM run it gets yanked back down to south of MVY....I think the biggest issue is the timing of it. I'm trying to think of any high-end storms that had something similar....2015 started to become very brieflyt elongated before being captured, but nothing like what is being shown on guidance.
-
It has a rotting outer band long after the storm is occluding
-
NAM still captures it south of islands. Just took longer this run.
-
If it waits until gulf of maine, then yeah, that would limit the amounts in SNE to merely exceptional instead of "Record threatening"
-
You would as long as the capture wasn't too far NE...like say it was captured just east if ACK/CHH instead of south of BID....then that would help you.
-
The low eventually gets captured anyway because H5 is just so strong, but the dual low can act to delay the capture a bit further northeast.
-
This is a legit concern of mine in terms of this challenging records vs being "merely" a massive storm.
-
Yeah what an awesome looks. My only mild concern still is that elongated structure. Even euro still hints at it but manages to keep things consolidated enough…but if it was a little less consolidated then you could envision a tamer solution. It’s not the biggest deal but it would probably lessen the coverage of 2+ foot amounts. You’d see a lot more 15-20 type amounts.
-
06z GFS did also to a lesser extent.
-
His standard for returning is pretty high though. It’s possible his area in RI gets more like 18” and he would have to drive like 7 hours from BUF after flying across country. That’s a huge commitment.
-
Just catching up on euro and 06z runs. Wow to that euro run and wow to that NAM run. Still a little leery about the dumbelling elongated solutions. Looks like 06z reggie did that with a solid bump east.
-
This is a pretty solid meltdown even by Ray’s standards
-
Thanks that’s close but I was looking for the site that produces these images:
-
Btw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless.
