ORH_wxman

Euro coming back and both HRRR/RAP trending better....this one's gonna be a beast.

He’s now like Al Michaels when he will unabashedly talk about sports gambling in the middle of the broadcast…he knows he’s a legend and doesn’t give a shit about playing it safe. That said, Harvey did this in the 2/15/15 storm too. He was basically the only met who stuck to his guns on huge snows in E Ma despite model guidance trying to give us a pedestrian advisory event. Sometimes the upper air is just so overwhelming. I also think he knows that there’s the fluff factor to lean back on….if the storm ends up a bit more seaward, there’s still the exceptional ML/Deformation that will have incredible snow growth and maybe winds not quite as strong in that scenario.

Didn’t like York or Ogunquit put up a 24 burger in that? Like 10 miles away had 5”

Reminds me a little of the disconnect between sensible wx output and the upper air in the 2/15/15 storm. The model guidance was shoving this massive WCB out east and up into Maine (where blizzard warnings busted iirc) and being paltry over SNE despite obscene height falls south of MVY/ACK

It will definitely be ripping tomorrow…but the key is do we lose some of that WCB injection. That is the difference between like a 15” storm over metrowest and a 25”+ storm.

Is bet dollars to donuts the EC goes east at 18z. All the guidance has except really the NAM which started out east but recovered late.

I’m sure you saw my post to Ryan with the coupled jet maps. It is so bizarre to me. This isn’t even like Jan 7th when the forcing mayb have wanted the afc low further west but it was kind of meh for strength so convection could overcome it…this time, it’s a monster coupled jet with big dPVA.

GFS goes to George's Bank...lol

Yeah this doesn't exactly scream "strung out low....lower impact storm for SNE"....it's literally how you would probably draw it up on an idealized setup

Yeah my gut says we see a bit of a trend to consolidate the low again somewhere near or just S of the Islands...or maybe just E of CHH....I'm a little skeptical of those solutions where it doesn't do it until its over George's Bank when you have this ridiculous upper air support several hundred miles southwest of that.

Actually latest 20z HRRR took a nice jump west tomorrow AM...more consolidated low. So maybe there's a trend there with the RAP we can work with?

RAP has been improving since 18z....hopefully its onto something.....HRRR has been getting worse. Glad there's good short term model agreement on the trends.

Yeah 3k wasn't quite as good as 12z....still a very good run though. Minor difference.

I'm sure it will have a blizzard for ACK while BOS has 3" of sand.

I've noticed that on the lot of the short term guidance, that massive QPF bomb has been creeping north slowly so that we're seeing it over LI....I'm wondering if that just ends up creeping NNE across the sound into SE CT.

That might actually be a better solution than 12z...esp for the deformation tomorrow midday/afternoon.

Goes nuclear at 21-24 hours.

I just sent to Megan.....

I was just gonna say...."wait until all the 18z guidance and HRRR/RAP bring back the historic crush job only to get nut-punched again later"

Yeah it's honestly going to be interesting....I think that feature is real, but the magnitude is what it is question. If you get the upper iar forcing to overcome it early enough (like some guidance shows), then you still have a historic crush job for most of SNE....but obviously the Euro decided not to go that route on this run....though I'd be careful for those who think that is not still a monster storm for eastern areas...the deformation band would prob go right through metrowest on that run and everyone would claim the models busted because they got 2 feet anyway....

Its running away with this....check your SLP map at 24 hours and it's right where I circled H5:

Elongated low FTL

The LavaRock MOS output

I think they upgraded to a Gateway 2000 last year.

Yeah but it's a fact that 12z guidance has definitely backed off on a larger region-wide historic storm....it's still historic for SE MA, but that is different than what we were seeing on previous cycles. Honestly, there really isn't much more to parse for SE MA and far E MA....they are going to get crushed. But for the rest of the forum, there is a lot to sort out. Now, it's another question altogether whether we actually believe the 12z runs so far...I'm thinking they are probably going to little too much with the elongation idea and the Upper levels and mid-levels look about as good as they can be....