ORH_wxman

Took a bit of a nap earlier but now see that the latest runs of the rap and hrrr have started to come back west. We’ll see how this progresses the next 2-3 hours but this is go time now. The 04z hrrr has the eastern low becoming dominant around 7z. Previous runs already had it happening by 05z or 06z so I’d say that is a good sign. I also like what I see on radar.

It’s definitely all about the convection. Those uglier RAP runs and HRRR runs are chasing. We’ll know how real it is later this evening.

18z euro was a little better than 12z imho.

It has subdued somewhat. It’s still good but not insane like earlier.

I’ve talked about this storm before (you prob were not in SNE for this as you would’ve been back in Ithaca still ripping beers)…but I remember getting convectively robbed in the Feb 28-Mar1, 2005 storm. 8-12” forecast turned into like 5-6” because this massive blob of convection formed just E of LI and tracks over PYM and the Cape…it was snow there and they got 5” per hour. Our old friend messenger got 13” in 3-4 hours and 16 total I think. While back in ORH we got robbed. That was obviously a negative bust for me but thankfully we got a positive one 12 days later on March 12, 2005 when a 3-5” forecast turned into 11” from a pseudo IVT coastal.

Also usually a sign that TSSN is possible

Central WV is getting crushed right now. Doesn’t happen too often there west of the mountains. Usually a snow hole but not today.

This is definitely a true nowcast system. Pretty fun. Difference between 4-6” and 8-12” is going to be that convection and whether it actually disrupts the conveyor or not.

Some of those soundings would argue for greater than 15 to 1

It's better for you too

Gonna be zonked this run

18z GFS looks a hair more amped at 6 hours vs 12z at 12 hours.

It's usually designated for a 24 hour period....so you'd want to see 24mb in 24 hours....which this one will achieve too.

You didn't miss anything....his default is "beers" these days.

I use rap http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/

He was writing postmortems for 2-3" a little more than 24 hours ago.

How about we just slingshot some of that convection into the conveyor system of this storm? Get an ole' fashioned 4" per hour bust job somewhere.

This is why I have remained fairly bullish on this threat from a few days ago....the vort tracks almost ideal for SNE snow events. I still am not convinced the circulation doesn't end up more consolidated sooner than shown either.

Yeah congeal that crap a little sooner and this would be a 12"+ nuke over a swath of SNE.

This run is prolonging the snowfall too. Really trying to make that western low more dominant by 15z tomorrow.

18z NAM is going to be good for many.

18z NAM looks a little more amped through 15 hours than 12z.

Yes agreed....it's not really the true spread showing there on the ensembles...it just some ensembles have the eastern low slightly stronger than the western one so the map "chooses" that low as the main one.

The dual low structure eventually gets gobbled up into one main low on all guidance....but where that happens is key...if it happens sooner, it really prolongs the heavier snowfall in SNE and that would mean we have to up the amounts....if it happens much later, then it keeps snow amounts more adivsory/low end warning (in eastern areas) most likely.

I'm still trying to figure out how fake or real the convective low structure is....and it's not binary either. It can be "mostly real" or "mostly fake" but that probably has some meaningful sensible wx impacts.