ORH_wxman

BGM track at the sfc on the NAM

NAM coming in warmer than it's already previously torched solution.

Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened. This winter finds new ways to disappoint... Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that. If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol

I do expect the interior to stay wedged....the question is whether it's mostly just ORH county and Berks or if most of SNE away from the coast stays wedged. Won't be much pack to protect though unless we can keep the mid-level warmth at bay for several hours during the heavy stuff.

Your area is the most uncertain IMHO....I could see you getting 8-10" but I could also see you only getting 2-4" if this mid-level warm creep continues on guidance for another couple of cycles.

I was giving it until about 72 hours lead time…we’ve now gotten there and guidance is locked and loaded. If anything, I actually expect this to warm/amp up a bit more as we often see in southern stream systems…we’ll get that warm trend until maybe 24h out and then a little messenger shuffle. NAM is hinting at the mid-level warmth the most but I wouldn’t discount it just because it’s the NAM. Synoptically it makes sense. Hopefully we get an east tick, but how often do we see those with southern stream juicers?

Yeah it looks fine for NNE and N berks. It’s dogshit for most of SNE unless we get a meaningful shift…which still may happen but I’m skeptical given the very good model consistency.

Won’t help us aloft. Might keep the sfc colder in the 30s during the rain a d maybe produce some ZR far enough interior like N ORH county. Otherwise, no real effect in terms of snowfall. We’d need the redevelopment to happen in the midlevels for it to matter on snow.

Nothing left to really track with this one down here. Model guidance looks locked in. If we see a move, I’ll become more invested again, but right now it’s just whack-a-mole. I’m expecting maybe 2-3” and then a gully washer. I think 6+ is reserved for N ORH county and Berkshires.

The secondary development at the surface will help hold in the cold air…esp over the interior. However, if the H5 track remains really far west, the precip will still likely flip because the midlevel centers are going to be closer to the H5 forcing than the sfc. But even sfc secondary will help some as it will prob keep the R/S line closer to the coast early on before aloft warms.

It didn’t really move though at 18z. I’ll be more intrigued if it bumps east at 00z.

Yeah we need that secondary development to slow the warming. The coast is prob a done deal but interior still has a lot of variance on what could happen.

It still looks a lot worse than the GFS. It needs another solid bump east.

If you saw the 12z snow maps, the 18z ones are almost exactly the same except they go to 90 hours so have to take that into account. Esp northern peeps.

Yeah we never got the whole system to come back west on that one. However, The PVA ended up really enhancing the banding a bit more than earlier guidance suggested…but that became apparent on the later runs when QPF boosted into the 0.50 range from the lower 0.2-0.3 amounts on earlier runs.

Trying to redevelop the ML center too. But I want to see some more support. No other model looks like that.

Weeklies go back to -PNA and SE Ridge in February....they are frigid for late January though.

It is definitely a Miller A as currently modeled if we're going by the original definitions from Miller et al 1946. If this started tracking into the TN Valley or OH Valley with a clear secondary redevelopment, then we could revisit, but yeah, not really worth the energy debating it at the moment.

12/26-27/12 was a pretty good storm for interior SNE....I think I had 7" with a bunch of IP/ZR in that one. A bit further NW had over a foot.

EPS spread actually increased from 06z which is weird when you get closer.

Crazy cold shallow airmass there. Euro even gets BOS down to 0F.

Yep....how many times over the years (even in biggies like Feb 2013) did the models over-phase the streams? We've seen plenty of times where the southern ends up a little faster and the phase happens later than originally modeled. Doesn't mean it will happen this time, but it's a more realistic scenario than hoping for the northern stream to come in weaker....in my experience, the northern stream will probably come in stronger when sampled.

It's a pretty good thump in SNE too away from the water.

I think one realistic hope on this system is that the southern stream ends up more progressive as we get closer....that's actually a real thing that happens on model guidance a decent amount. I don't have much hope for the northern stream to help us coming in weaker, but a more progressive southern stream seems plausible.

I'm comparing to 06z....00z was really amped, and I agree it will be east of 00z.