ORH_wxman
-
Posts
91,770 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Furnace south of the pike tomorrow night on the 3k...Kevin gets his 50s and rain.
-
That is pretty ugly for snow south of phin-IZG
-
Wonder if euro is doing its usual bullsh*t of too much diabetic temp heating. It’s like as soon as the sun rises, it refuses to drop the sfc temps.
-
Yeah I would understand it if the sfc front was kind of straddled over us but the euro has it WAY south when it’s still above freezing. Like it rots ORH near 32 despite the sfc front down near the south coast….it’s like neutral temp advection for 6 hours despite a frigid arctic high to the north and clear northerly ageo flow.
-
My guess is the other guidance is more correct. You have a weak strung-out sfc reflection and a very dense low-level arctic airmass to the north….what is going to resist it?
-
Euro is definitely all by itself on the surface/BL cold pressing in very weakly.
-
Seem like about an inch of cold rain and then a lot of sleet/ZR here after that. Hopefully we trend it a little snowier….but I guess that’s all better than the 50-60F torching rain that was shown several days ago.
-
Sharper cutoff on the snow though. Doesn’t get as much into CT. Lots of IP/ZR there.
-
Definitely colder. More snow to the pike this run. Nice hit for Ray.
-
18z euro is stronger with initial cold push but it’s noticeably more amped in southern stream so that may win out. We’ll see.
-
Wasn’t much of a move north. A little bit lol….we’ll see if the euro tries to come south again but it seems like 18z is the trend north cycle today.
-
18zGFS making the expected march northward here.
-
Icon was still pretty cold. Esp low levels but it was definitely warmer than 12z. I can envision the midlevel warmth winning out but low level cold oozing down so that we end up with a bit more IP/ZR than currently modeled.
-
ICON was a solid tick warmer too....pretty clear 18z trend so far.
-
It actually ended up more amped in the end....it was definitely suppressed early. It has some pretty decent icing though late in the system, because it's far juicier after the temps crash than the 12z run was.
-
Reggie finally trending colder this time...though it still has a lot of work to do to get to the colder model solutions considering it was probably the warmest model at 12z.
-
Yeah and this is where icing could cause a problem...if we start trending both the press and the shortwave stronger, there will be more WAA aloft but CAA low levels which would widen the area of icing.
-
NAM is coming north this run
-
They shifted south solidly like the OP has.
-
GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over. If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount. But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.
-
That was definitely on the larger side of moves you would typically see from the Euro at this range. But this is a pretty delicate setup...small difference early on will have larger differences later.
-
Gets advisory snows after the flip down to about Kevin....eastern coastline might get OES enhancement late in the game Friday afternoon/evening....like -8C temps at 925mb coming out of the NE.
-
Euro looks like it's going to be a little more suppressed than 06z....but gotta watch the southern stream....it's a little stronger this run but the cold press is stronger too.
-
Might be the "Broken clock is right twice a day" scenario for the Ukie.
-
06z euro had plenty of snow in CNE/NNE. It was just less juicy down here by the time it flipped over.
