ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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It’s starting to develop a wave. These things aren’t purely binary. Either way, looks like GFS held serve. Would like to see some bumps N at 00z from the rest of guidance.
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RGEM went SE vs 12z....still has it, but it's a bit lighter.
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SPC has marginal risks down there. NAM is by far the most robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely.
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I guess the one thing going for this is that the mesos will likely be the ones that catch this first...that's exactly what happened in other similar events in Jan 2013 and Feb 2016.
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3km coming in quite a bit more juiced too
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Yeah seriously...that's a solid advisory event for a good chunk of SNE. Mostly on its own though....hopefully a few more models catch on.
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1/24 ain't happening on this run either. As Bob said, energy gets buried in the southwest and will whiff on the northern stream phase. Wrong thread....but it will probably be in a good position for 1/25-26.
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Euro is like 1A to the GFS 1B these days....there isn't a canyon-esque gap between them like there used to be.
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Euro is starting to cave....1/22 will come in flatter this run. I'm hoping we can start seeing better solutions for 1/24 because 1/22 just doesn't have much room to maneuver.
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Yeah this one's on life support right now. Maybe not for the immediate south coast but for the rest of SNE.
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We might need to make an animated FINISH HIM! gif of when the guy is teetering off balance waiting for the fatality but with a Scooter face on him.
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Even if you could model the atmospheric dynamics perfectly, you'd still have to have a dense enough coverage of data to make the forecast flawless. As the ole saying goes, the output is only as good as the data being input.
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Ukie has nada. Actually trended worse from 00z.
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GGEM likes the 24th better too even though it's a narrow miss...it's closer than the 1/22 storm.
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It's a defense mechanism for many on here to whine. The GFS actually improved a little for 1/22 even though it still misses. Bit I do think the 1/24 threat has more room to work with even though there are still some minor spacing issues with the 1/22 wave ahead of it.
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Yeah I get the sentiment....but it seems like Thursday is starting to ramp up....but if we can phase in more SW energy, then it won't matter as much being a detriment to 1/22. We can get both that way....the western variables are more important.
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Biggest change on the NAM was phasing in more southwest energy into the shortwave around the MS river valley.
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Yeah those changes out west overwhelmed the changes in the east. Those will be the bigger factors, but all else equal, I still don't want to amp up 1/20. However, we deserve to be greedy and get both with the way this season has gone.
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It is not the only factor....we can definitely get both events, but all else equal, we'd rather not have this one. There are other factors this run that are helping out 1/22 that are independent of the frontal wave.
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Trough was shifted a lot westward this run which is good. Northern stream diving in behind it was much further west. Those are very good changes.
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NAM def coming in more amped. I'd want to see Euro get on board though before actually taking it seriously. The more amped this one is, the less likely 1/22 is IMHO.
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EPS looks a touch SE of 18z but definitely still pretty decent for SNE
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Yeah goes without saying. It was torching the first week of February a few cycles ago and now it’s showing cold to start February.
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I actually thought 18z looked a little better too. Guess we’ll see if other guidance starts to play ball at 00z or if the euro starts to cave, but 18z was a solid double down by the Euro.
