ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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GFS trying for 1/25....need to consolidate the forcing into the southern stream, but it has a decent look.
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Snowing here steadily, but radar looks like dogshit....hopefully we can grab an inch if that stuff to the west doesn't fall apart.
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I mean maybe...but it's really hard to make up 50"+ in like a 5-6 week span which is where we'd be by early February....for the epic snow belt towns in south-central CT, they have more wiggle room to reach average, but up here, we're way behind climo and you need snow events every so often not to fall too far behind.
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Yeah I think the next 10 days will decide how this winter will go...if we cash in on 2 threats, then something close to normal snowfall is still plausible. But if we get to groundhog day with nothing to show for it and nothing imminent, I think a ratter is basically locked.
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Frustration on this garbage winter aside....if we're looking for the best windows here, it's still Jan 25-26....there is still pretty decent ensemble support for that system. Then I'd prob look at Jan 29-30th and Feb 2nd....those are two dates that have some weak ensemble signals.
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Some mangled flakes mixed in here. Epicosity.
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Yeah that was good but it also hit RI good and a chunk of SE MA…not a “true” cape special but I guess it was pretty close to one.
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We haven't had a good Cape Specials in a while. Usually you'll one of those 8-12" deals out there when we smoke cirrus (or get 1-3") about once every other or third year, but we haven't had any recently. I honestly can't remember the last one....was it March 2014? I feel like maybe there was another one a couple years later but struggling to remember any. Maybe in 2018, I dunno.
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18z NAM kind of reversed the trend from 12z....a bit juicier in southern areas while cutting back to the north.
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Well we lost the 1/22-24 dual deal...both of those will fail. But the 1/25-26 clipper/redeveloper is looking alive and well. Some of the guidance including the Euro gets southern stream involved too which will add to some of the model chaos, but I think there's a legit chance of a good event even without the southern stream.
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Gonn have to watch that 1/25-26 deal. Euro/GEM/Ukie all have something.
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Euro basically held serve from 06z. Might have been a little better for eastern areas and a little worse for western areas. But nothing big.
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Ukie likes that clipper too for a redeveloper situation.
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RAP and HRRR are drying up pretty substantially on post-12z runs. Not a trend you want to see.
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I'm honestly not sure what to expect in February....model guidance still wants to have a monster Bering Strait ridge....which is NOT a warm pattern overall for us. But if the PNA goes negative enough, we could end up with the SE ridge getting us too much like it did in December....but part of me thinks that's pretty unlikely as that was an extreme -PNA that is unlikely to persist that long again. Typically those only last a few days.
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All the 12z mesos got a lot drier....FV3 too. The one exception might be the HRRR.
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1-2 inch event. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3
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It was worse south, better north. So perspective i guess depending on where you are.
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Looked better than 06z for here.
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06z NAM backed off. Now looks like most other guidance. Might be close to final solution. Hopefully one more bump north at 12z today.
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Yeah if the NAM and GFS slink back SE at 00z and converge on an 18z euro solution, then we’re screwed outside of south coast towns. But I’m starting to think this may keep coming NW for another couple cycles. I like that there is a little bit of southern stream energy infused to get this going. Anecdotally, I feel like those trend more amped a bit more frequently than not.
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Here’s the difference between 12z and 18z. You can see how another similar move would bring the fronto goods into SNE.
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For euro standards that was pretty good. Like a 40-50 mile shift. One more bump like that and it would look like some of the snowier guidance.
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Definitely still some red flags on this threat. Gonna need to see some solid improvement on euro to get confident. As much as the euro has not been it’s dominant self recently, it still is not typically going to be that far off inside 48h so hopefully we see a bump here soon.
