ORH_wxman

Nice little snow burst on the back end this run for the pike region.

That's a close call...the warm layer is also pretty fat on that and approaching 5C...gets hard to refreeze into pellets when that happens.....BUT, the cold layer is REALLY cold. It is even harder to NOT refreeze into pellets when your cold layer is -8C. Typically when the cold layer gets to -6C or so, ZR becomes difficult unless the -6C layer is right near the ground, which in this case it is not. So I'd prob say that is a sleet sounding....though maybe sort of a mix of sleet and ZR is possible too, but I'd be surprised if that was mostly ZR.

No, prob shifted north now...maybe N CT to S MA...but it's also possible it just never really materializes....if 900-925 hugs the below-freezing sfc air pretty close, then it will just be a brief period of ZR and then pellets (or a mix of both which will also cut down on accretion) and then mostly rain south of where that line slows down.

I'm selling big ice....seems the 900-925 layer cools very quickly behind the surface....that says pellets to me. I want to see the atmospheric profile more sloped for ice. There will be a narrow area of decent glaze, but it likely won't be crippling.

Ptype map on pivotal is trying to show ZR on Friday morning but it looks more like pellets...that's cold at 925 (-5ish) after 15z.

Ukie has a nice snower for 2/7-8 but no other support at the moment.

Maybe he wants temps and not dewpoints....here's temps

Yes, I did mention that....and we often see late shifts north on these. The most "interesting" aspect of the storm in SNE is now all about the frontal boundary at the surface.....if we meso-low this thing with a finger of low pressure over the Cape and into the waters east of BOS, then it's going to be a lot of icing (sleet may cut down though?)..

Nah, nobody will get anything like 2008 ice unless this breaks absolutely "perfect" which it won't. Probably not enough QPF for that and the icing zone is pretty narrow...too much sleet.

The final solution very well might be a 50/50 compromise between GFS/Euro from about 2 days ago (assuming the 12z NAM isn't correct....if it is, then the Euro wins). GFS was clearly winning at this point yesterday, but since then we've seen more of a drift north, so now we're more like 50/50 compromise.

Yeah kind of surprising to see it actually coming in colder.

The difference on the NAM though was that it clearly had the sfc front much further north than the euro...once it gets south of us, it drains pretty quick....the weird thing about the Euro was that it wasn't cooling the BL very fast when the sfc reflection was pinned down at he south coast and we had this monster arctic high to the north....where's the floodgates opening up for the ageo drain? It's like it wasn't there.

Yeah I was briefly thinking you might score on this one....but you get porked again being too far south for good snow. You might get a lot of ZR/IP though....lol. Your area will likely drain the cold in the low levels pretty efficiently.

A lot of the hi-res meso models have a mesolow that goes out toward Cape Cod overnight tomorrow night and it drives the sfc cold down into MA....that's something that would have to be watched as it would create a big icing problem if it verified.

We need to sit around the camp fire with powderfreak....

Sfc front gets stalled over or just south of the pike region on the 3k for like 6-8 hours. Anyone south of the sfc front will be flooded with warmer air. We'll see...might be wrong. Sfc features will be the hardest for models to resolve. They'll get the nidlevels a lot easier.

Furnace south of the pike tomorrow night on the 3k...Kevin gets his 50s and rain.

That is pretty ugly for snow south of phin-IZG

Wonder if euro is doing its usual bullsh*t of too much diabetic temp heating. It’s like as soon as the sun rises, it refuses to drop the sfc temps.

Yeah I would understand it if the sfc front was kind of straddled over us but the euro has it WAY south when it’s still above freezing. Like it rots ORH near 32 despite the sfc front down near the south coast….it’s like neutral temp advection for 6 hours despite a frigid arctic high to the north and clear northerly ageo flow.

My guess is the other guidance is more correct. You have a weak strung-out sfc reflection and a very dense low-level arctic airmass to the north….what is going to resist it?

Euro is definitely all by itself on the surface/BL cold pressing in very weakly.

Seem like about an inch of cold rain and then a lot of sleet/ZR here after that. Hopefully we trend it a little snowier….but I guess that’s all better than the 50-60F torching rain that was shown several days ago.

Sharper cutoff on the snow though. Doesn’t get as much into CT. Lots of IP/ZR there.

Definitely colder. More snow to the pike this run. Nice hit for Ray.