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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    HRRR really hitting north of the pike later tonight/early tomorrow. We’ll see on that but it’s been trending better.
  2. ORH_wxman
    The TPV is still important imho. I agree the longitude of the western ridge poses issues for a further west track but the TPV getting pinned over SE Canada allows more wiggle room for winter wx in the sensible sense. Like if this tries to cut into PIT/CLE but then it gets forced out underneath us on a secondary reflection….that’s a big winter storm for us versus maybe a quick front-ender to mild rain.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Lot of CAD that run. Would be a large area of icing with that high. Regardless, the details are irrelevant…larger point was the TPV getting tucked into SE Canada. That’s all we can really take from the run.
  4. ORH_wxman
    GFS def not budging on the PAC look
  5. ORH_wxman
    About 10% of the members had measurable snowfall for 12/11-12/12 about 5-6 days out and most people ignored 12/11 until we got much closer.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Scooter's probability maps are going to look a lot uglier today....
  7. ORH_wxman
    That says nothing about probability.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Embrace it.....
  9. ORH_wxman
    EPS is trending toward the OP run too with the western Canada energy.
  10. ORH_wxman
    It tries to change you over too but I don't like how far southwest you are on that. But we'll just have to wait and see. Guidance has been slowly trending southeats with the SFC low today, so maybe it can produce a little band later further south.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Nice squall line from CAR to Havana.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Like 3 or 4 of us talked about it further up
  13. ORH_wxman
    Pretty apparent by 96h that it would. This will be Chicago track or roughly somewhere near there.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Tropospheric Polar Vortex
  15. ORH_wxman
    GEM can't buy a coup on a snow event, but it will be the first to sniff out the TPV getting trapped and taking a blizzard away.
  16. ORH_wxman
    LOL brutal.....Cranmore shut down.
  17. ORH_wxman
    One of my old contacts said 7-8" in Winchendon.....they got slammed up there. Might end up with a foot. AWT. What's funny, is the crazy gradient between Cheshire county and N ORH county that I was mocking almost happened....lol. IT was def a bit south of that weird BOX map.....Rt or just south of Rt 2 seems to be the big dividing line.
  18. ORH_wxman
    It looks a bit worse than 00z through 96h up north....I'll be somewhat surprised if this solution ends up cold/snowy.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Over an inch of QPF at ORH now....brutal waste of a nice system otherwise
  20. ORH_wxman
    Euro is kind of going hybrid again on the TPV look like 00z....would've liked to see it definitively go more GFS/NAM route.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks interesting for tonight....I'd feel better up by Ray's hood but maybe down here I can grab an inch or so.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I mean it's Tblizz....never saw a threat that wasn't already cooked at D7. Call it the "Reverse JB" model.
  23. ORH_wxman
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the Euro was kind of a middle ground. My guess is it won't play out like that though....prob more binary. But well see. This pattern has been really screwing with guidance. They are having a lot of trouble handling the extreme blocking...it makes it hard to pinpoint which piece of energy get emphasized.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Well one of the sets of models will be wrong....so by deifnition one of them will change a lot. GFS and NAM are similar while GGEM/Ukie are in the other camp. You can see the PV diving SE on the GFS/NAM....here's a comparison between GFS and GEM at 84 hours....you can cleary see the GFS is already sending that piece of PV off to the east and southeast.
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