ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,911 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Ryan will have to point out on his broadcast tomorrow morning if ORH is like 27F while BDL is just getting to freezing and Tolland is still near 50F.....a lot of meso guidance shows this. The ORH hills are blocking the cold from getting over and into NE CT while it drains down the CT Valley to the west
-
Yeah those sharp cutoff snow maps are not shoing the relatively wide area of sleet accumulation....and some of that will be mixing with snow too...esp when you have such a narrow warm layer plus 900-925mb temps in the -10 to -12C range.....soundings like this:
-
Hard to say....3" of sleet sounds high, though not impossible. I think we'd need to have the BL cool by about 10-11Z to have that much.....it would take at least 1 inch of QPF to get 3" of sleet, and 3 to 1 is kind of aggressive for sleet ratios, though by the time we get -10C in the cold layer, the sleet ratio would become higher because of pixie dust probably mixing in....but before that, it's going to be IP/ZR mix and that will have ratios well below 2 to 1.
-
Yeah the BOS-ORH corridor I mentioned to Chris earlier is a tough forecast....it could be REALLY nasty between 12z and 18z there with a lot of QPF falling.
-
EPS does not look warm....we may get a bit susceptible to some cutters after mid-month, but if that poleward ridge doesn't break down, then there's going to be a ton of cold in the CONUS.
-
HRRR takes forever to sink the sfc front from the pike region to N CT....it takes like 4-5 hours.
-
Yeah I think it will be....it was too warm a few days ago, but it's going to be closer than the GFS. Not by a ton, but I think Euro is prob gonna win this like 60/40 compromise....I'll have to go back and see what each run had at D4.5-5.
-
Yeah we're not gonna lose cover here I don't think (exposed south-facing torch spots on busy streets aside). But it's prob gonna be down to a 3" bulletproof glacier by tomorrow AM when it refreezes.
-
Pretty ripe pack now....looks like about 6-8" OTG eyeballing right now.
-
Ukie and GGEM have it today....GFS was a close miss. We'll see if Euro bites.
-
If it can set up a barrier jet, then its off to the races...it will rip down the coastal plain at like 15+ knots...gotta get it there first though.
-
High stakes forecast in the BOS-ORH corridor.....the timing of the flip is literally during the heaviest precip of the storm. A couple hours could make difference of like 0.40" of QPF.
-
Congrats the on the CJ
-
There is significant timing of the wave itself too....some of those frigid members shut the precip off in early afternoon while the warmer ones might delay the cold, but they are precipitating well into afternoon and even evening.
-
-
Some of these mesos at 12z are obscenely frigid tomorrow AM. This is going to be an interesting nowcast....because while model bias may be to cool the midlevels too quick, the surface/BL is a different story. The typical bias on model guidance is to cool too slowly when you have a meso-low out east....particularly if a weak barrier jet forms over SW ME and SE NH and then that will just rip right down the corridor east of ORH hills.
-
Next week is a classic Tip warm bum-bums in the car type of week....atmosphere is cold enough to support snow but getting into 2nd week of February means if its sunny, it will feel pretty warm when you don't have a fresh airmass in place. Those are the type of days that are like 41/9 for the rad pits that have snow cover.
-
That's probably pure sleet with pixie dust mixed in....the cold layer is -10C on that which can actually form dendrites and the warm layer looks +3C-ish.....in addition the cold layer is really deep.
-
HRRR definitely cooled off. That's a lot of frozen precip here between 12z and 18z tomorrow AM....like 0.80" melted.
-
Looks like a scalping here Friday morning. Meh…hopefully we can flip to a burst of snow at the end.l for a quick inch to freshen things up.
-
GFS has a lot of frozen QPF in MA. Like around an inch here. It’s pretty remarkable the differences still.
-
Yeah it looks active on that look. It could change of course, but I’m betting we see a few legit chances during the Feb 10-20 period.
-
I supposed it’s possible. But these tend to have pesky warm layers aloft that prolong the sleet. If you get another tick colder on the 00z run then the snow would be looking a lot better in SNH.
-
EPS looking pretty cold for mid-February. (5 day mean Feb 12-17)
-
But man, that is a pelletfest for about 4-5 hours here on Friday morning. During heavy precip too.
