ORH_wxman

Yes, and then a week later there was a marginal 8-10" storm for north of the pike....basically a front ender at 32-33F isothermal sounding. That was poorly forecasted.

There will be some good precip rates, but duration is an issue. This thing will be screaming northeast.

Around here I only really want to see about -5C or so which the top of the saturated layer achieves (at least on the western half of the sleet band)....there's so much salt nuclei in SNE sticking out into the ocean that the baseline numbers get skewed warmer for ice crystals. That said, my guess is the HRRR is too cold anyway, so it's prob a moot point.

Pivotal is probably too wide with the sleet ptype looking at the soundings. Like it's showing sleet where the entire column is colder than -2C but because it's not saturated in the DGZ, it shows up as sleet.

There was 1-2" in the interior on 3/3

For us, yes....out west though it's been a much bigger differences on some of these runs.

All the 12z hi-res guidance seems pretty bullish on snow in SNE...esp central/west....GFS kind of meh, though it continues to trend east.

Yeah if you compare all the solutions from like 2 days ago, the Euro is taking most guidance to the woodshed in the means. Definitely a needed coup for that model.

They will be bad in the interior for sure...maybe even the coast if the snow rips for a couple hours. But these are always much tougher than a system like Wednesday. Prob a blend between the two....even Kuchera is prob a lot better in this setup.

Prob about 10 to 1? It was pretty fluffy in terms of snow growth but also a little pasty because the sfc was near freezing so they kind of offset eachother to be near 10 to 1.

They are going to be more accurate in this setup than the 10 to 1 clown maps you are posting

That’s almost warning snowfall for ORH and advisory even into eastern areas.

LOL 18z euro

3km NAM still trying to redevelop the low southward along the front later in the event to give a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow and crashing temps in SNE.

Greens to whites to SR/Sugarloaf crush job.

NAM def more amped than 12z.

Whole system was kind of meh from a dynamics standpoint...for a min i thought it was gonna try and go the 3km NAM route of redeveloping a nice low along the front further south, but it wasn't quite able to do that. It would still flip most people over to snow but prob not more than an inch or two once you are southeast of Berkshires/NW CT in SNE....it's a decent event for CNE/NNE but again, lacking the dynamics so it's not double digits.

Wow this run is going to be interesting,,.cold.

Absolutely, and someone living in DC would kill for Ray's 43" even though he's about ready to throw himself off the Tobin with that seasonal total. All about expectations. Anyways, not to derail too much....here's what we got for this threat: East basket: NAM/Euro/UKMET West Basket: GFS/ICON/RGEM In between: GGEM

Yeah he hasn't quite learned how much we make fun of eachother yet....obviously each subforum has its own flavor.

The meltouts are the worst IMHO for that type of snow climo....I'm already kind of a pack guy down in interior SNE, but if I was up there, I'd really be weighting the pack heavily in my winter satisfaction. So when you get a winter like this year with so many cutters, it's really going to bring the grade down....so I can totally understand the frustration. I wouldn't want to hear about "Snow totals" from people in low land SNE either telling me not to be annoyed. I'd want a 30"+ pack which is basically climo for Randolph at this point in the season.

Euro and NAM versus the rest. We'll see if Ukie comes in colder.

Yeah I'd be rooting for one of those 190-200 inch winters....they prob happen every 3-5 years there, but it can be streaky too. Sometimes you'll get 2 or 3 in a row and then you'll have to wait 5-6 seasons. Mostly though, I'd get grouchy at melt-outs and those have been a problem this year. Sometimes, you just miss snow events but at least what snow that falls, keeps staying around and adds up slowly over time. But years like this have had a lot of melting and cutters which really sucks for winter sports. Last year had the horrific Xmas cutter, but at least once that was done, there wasn't another nasty one until maybe March? So the snow depths got pretty good up there.

I don't think this one has the flash freeze look that 3/8/05 had...it does bring cold air in eventually but it's not the super sharp flip like in '05....in that storm, I remember going from like 38-40F and heavy rain to maybe 27F in 2 hours. It was really fast. This one seems like it would have a more gradual drop with a longer period of temps near freezing when the flip happens. We'll see though....3km NAM was kind of doing it, though maybe not quite as fast as '05. It had that secondary pulse around 00z (and beyond if we could see another panel) where snow was ripping with temps falling into the 20s.

Prob mostly correct on the 12km which was less impressive than the 3km.... though it's likely too light in the elevations in N ORH county and Monads. But obviously too early to really be worrying about clown maps as it is. Still too much model spread.